rekrunner wrote:
Men's data:
As you look at the numbers, keep in mind the relative size of the respective populations:
- East Africa (4-5.6%) (1990 and present)
- North Africa (2.9-3.1%)
- 5 continents (83-87%%)
The thing that strikes me as most anomalous, when you look at athletes from "5 continents" -- North and South America, Europe, Russia, Japan, China, Australia, New Zealand -- with a combined population 15-30 times as many people compared to East and North Africans (~3%) -- 1) why there were are so few examples making the cut-off, and 2) why their respective improvements were significantally smaller than their African competitors, during a period spanning decades, when 1) EPO was available worldwide, and largely undetectable, and 2) everybody (up to 57%) from everywhere cheats, and 3) there existed a "game-changing" undetectable drug that would have helped them close the gap, and "level" the playing field.
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Mens 1500m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 3:29.84
Quantity:
Total: 26
East Africa: 16 61.5%
North Africa: 8 30.8%
5 Continents: 2 7.7%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 3:27.52 1.1%
North Africa (Top 5): 3:27.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 2): 3:29.30 0.3%
(Best) El G: 3:26.00 1.8%
(Best Spaniard) Fermin Cacho: 3:28.95 0.4%
OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved on average by around 1%, with El G at 1.8%
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved, by about 1/3rd, at 0.3%: Fermin Cacho (0.4%) and Nick Willis (0.2%)
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Mens 3000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 7:32.54
Quantity:
Total: 70 100.0%
East Africa: 49 70.0%
North Africa: 12 17.1%
5 Continents: 9 12.9%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:25.20 1.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 7:25.75 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 7:30.39 0.5%
(Best) Daniel Komen 7:20.67 2.6%
(Best Spaniard) Isaac Viciosa 7:29.34 0.7%
OBSERVATIONS:
o The best 5 East and North Africans both improved by around 1.5%
o The best of the rest of the world improved by 1/3rd, at 0.5%, with the best Spaniard at 0.7%
o 3 Spaniards made the cut-off
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Mens 3000m Steeplechase:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 8:05.98
Quantity:
Total: 32 100.0%
East Africa: 25 78.1%
North Africa: 5 15.6%
5 Continents: 2 6.3%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 7:54.61 2.3%
North Africa (Top 5): 8:00.57 1.1%
5 Continents (Top 2): 8:02.70 0.7%
(Best) Brahim Boulami: 7:53.17 2.6%
(Best non-African) Evan Jager: 8:00.45 1.1%
OBSERVATIONS:
o French athletes are Algerian descent
o Almost purely dominated by Kenya, with no Ethiopians
o East Africans improved nearly the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was a non-factor
o Only two athletes from the rest of the world improved: Evan Jager (1.1%) and Simon Vroemen (0.2%)
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Mens 5000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 13:02.08
Quantity:
Total: 112 100.0%
East Africa: 91 81.3%
North Africa: 13 11.6%
5 Continents: 8 7.1%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 12:41.96 2.6%
North Africa (Top 5): 12:50.06 1.5%
5 Continents (Top 5): 12:56.09 0.8%
(Best) Bekele: 12:37.35 3.2%
(Best non-African) Baumann: 12:54.70 0.9%
OBSERVATIONS:
o Would expect EPO helps 5000m
o East Africans improved almost the double of North Africans, and the triple of the rest of the world
o Spain was not a factor, except Ethiopian Bezabeh
o Baumann would be 8th North African and 39th East African
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Mens 10000m:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 27:14.77
Quantity:
Total: 111 100.0%
East Africa: 101 91.0%
North Africa: 5 4.5%
5 Continents: 5 4.5%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 26:25.78 3.0%
North Africa (Top 5): 26:59.98 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 27:03.68 0.7%
(Best) Bekele: 26:17.53 3.5%
(Best non-African) Rupp: 26:44.36 1.9%
(Best Spaniard) Fabián Roncero: 27:14.44 0.0%
OBSERVATIONS:
o Only 4 non-East Africans have run sub-27:00 (two after 2010)
o 54 (93.1%) East Africans have run sub-27:00
o Next 53? 47 East African, 3 North African, and 3 from the rest of World
o Only 10 non-East Africans total
o Spain is almost completely non-factor
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Marathon:
Pre-1990 (Top 5): 2:07:11
Quantity:
Total: 201 100.0%
East Africa: 183 91.0%
North Africa: 6 3.0%
5 Continents: 12 6.0%
Quality:
East Africa (Top 5): 2:03:06 3.2%
North Africa (Top 5): 2:06:02 0.9%
5 Continents (Top 5): 2:06:21 0.7%
Kimetto: 2:02:57 3.3%
Ryan Hall (Boston): 2:04:58 1.7%
Jaouad Gharib: 2:05:27 1.4%
Ronaldo de Costa: 2:06:05 0.9%
Julio Rey: 2:06:52 0.3%
OBSERVATIONS:
o East Africans improved more than the triple of both North Africans, and the rest of the world
o No "top" marathons made the cutoff between 1988 and 1995
o 100 quality performances up to Geb's first world record (Sep. 2007)
o 447 quality performances after (Sep. 2007)
o JPN (3)and RSA (3)
o Only 1 Spaniard, Julio Rey
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GENERAL OBSERVATIONS for the men:
o Most events have East Africans at 70-90%, improving by 3%
o Where was the rest of the world during the decades of the EPO era? Some 5-10% of "5 continents" improved, by about 1% or less
o Despite the large number of EPO busts, Spain doesn't appear to be a large asset for the "5 continents" or tough competitors against the Africans
So you're starting from the assumption that 'everybody cheats', and then use the fact that white performances trailed off after 1990 whilst East African and North African rocketed to conclude that 'everybody cheats, but EPO allowed Africans to cheat as much as the rest??
What a twat. You really have taken Ventilo's mantle with this post.