The OFFICIAL Hawaii Missile Alert False Alarm Conspiracy Thread

Once again, cherry picking an isolated incident in the past is no evidence that anyone (let alone evidence of who or how) hacked anything. You're only on square one of justifying speculation, i.e. trying to prove it's possible.

There is evidence that authorized personnel were operating the system on that very day, and human error is not uncommon. So that is already plausible and beats all kinds of speculation. Claims flying around that the system has failsafes preventing such human error are speculation too.

The Guru Matt James wrote:

So you are saying that you believe the safeguards against accidentally triggering the incoming ballistic missile warning are equivalent to the safeguards in place to prevent someone from making a typo while using their phone to post on letsrun?

I have a bridge to sell you in Pyongyang.

I'm saying never underestimate the potential for human error. I've worked in aerospace for over thirty years and have see all kinds of screw ups. If I told you half of what I know you would probably never set foot inside an aircraft again. Just google "aircraft wrong engine shut down" to see human error at its finest.

Raddison wrote:

The Guru Matt James wrote:

So you are saying that you believe the safeguards against accidentally triggering the incoming ballistic missile warning are equivalent to the safeguards in place to prevent someone from making a typo while using their phone to post on letsrun?

I have a bridge to sell you in Pyongyang.

I'm saying never underestimate the potential for human error. I've worked in aerospace for over thirty years and have see all kinds of screw ups. If I told you half of what I know you would probably never set foot inside an aircraft again. Just google "aircraft wrong engine shut down" to see human error at its finest.

+1

A bored Hawaiian government employee was likely stoned to the gills on Maui Wowee!

Most amazing part of this: the guy reassigned, not identified and fired.

Raddison wrote:

The Guru Matt James wrote:

So you are saying that you believe the safeguards against accidentally triggering the incoming ballistic missile warning are equivalent to the safeguards in place to prevent someone from making a typo while using their phone to post on letsrun?

I have a bridge to sell you in Pyongyang.

I'm saying never underestimate the potential for human error. I've worked in aerospace for over thirty years and have see all kinds of screw ups. If I told you half of what I know you would probably never set foot inside an aircraft again. Just google "aircraft wrong engine shut down" to see human error at its finest.

I don't doubt the potential for someone to make this type of mistake. I'm questioning the lack of safeguards.

Doesn't your aerospace experience prove my point. Yeah there were lots of errors but how often does an airliner crash due to mechanical error? Rarely, because there are a lot of safeguards in place. (I assume... admittedly, I don't actually know).

I find it hard to believe there are no safeguards in place to prevent a lone employee from accidentally triggering that alert.

There was a good spot on NPR this morning with a former Clinton era Sec. of Defense. He highlighted three false alarms that happened during his tenure, one in which someone loaded the wrong tape into the system. Apparently, a training scenario tape was loaded rather than some other tape and it flew alarms that the Soviet Union launched. The missile watchman thought enough to realize something didn't look right and investigate rather than phone the President immediately like he was supposed to.

It's quite feasible that "the wrong button" is just a way of simplifying into layman's terms the mistake that happened internally to create the false alarm.

The Guru Matt James wrote:

Doesn't your aerospace experience prove my point. Yeah there were lots of errors but how often does an airliner crash due to mechanical error? Rarely, because there are a lot of safeguards in place. (I assume... admittedly, I don't actually know).

I find it hard to believe there are no safeguards in place to prevent a lone employee from accidentally triggering that alert.

Matt,

Actually your comment proves my point. You are right, it is very rare a plane crashes due to design error. The mechanical failures are rare and usually due to botched maintenance. The most common cause of crashes is CFIT (controlled flight into terrain). A significant amount of design work goes into trying to make human error impossible but people still find a way to achieve the unachievable. Look up Swiss Cheese Model for accident causation, we live that every day. The Deepwater Horizion oil rig explosion was a classic example of the Swiss Cheese effect, something like seven different things from the nozzles used to inject the concrete to a dead battery, lined up and caused that disaster.

We had a series of engine failures that were the result of a ball point pen. The pilot needed to turn on two switches as part of his pre-flight checks. However the two switches were close enough together that he could turn them both on at once using his pen as a rod to bridge the gap. If he got it just right he resultant shock load on the engine auxiliary gearbox would strip the idler gear. We had to redesign the gearbox.

For this missile alert fiasco I am sure there were multiple safeguards in place, and a long procedure to follow, when testing it. This guy was either too lazy and bypassed chunks of the process or inadvertently discovered the flaw in the system. I am sure there are now even more safeguards in place.

As an aside: One problem with extra layers of safeguards is it can produce complacency in people. Look up the Law of Unintended Consequences. That's another issue we have to consider. "The system's so good it's impossible for me to screw up, so I don't need to pay attention to what I am doing."

Murphy's Law is alive and well.

I don’t think it was either. My first reaction was it was done on purpose. Politics have gotten out of control. Both sides will spin anything/do anything to further their cause. My guess is this was a liberal stunt meant to bash Trump even more. ... a ‘see what could happen with Trump as President”. Also, I suspected the mainstream media would immediately start bashing him over the incident, and that’s exactly what happened. If so, wonder what this employee was paid/promised to do it?

The employee is refusing to cooperate with the feds.

BigButton wrote:

It's quite feasible that "the wrong button" is just a way of simplifying into layman's terms the mistake that happened internally to create the false alarm.

I'm still not ready to give up on state sponsored hacking, but this sounds a little better than "the wrong button" to me