How many high schoolers can run sub 15 5000m every year in US?

I've heard something like 10, 000 or so. One coach I was visiting with said sub-15 kids come a "dime a dozen" these days.

TrackBot! VDOT 15:00 5000m

I don’t thing there’s any chance it’s that many. Obviously this isn’t close to a full year representative sample, but only 8 kids broke 15 at new balance nationals in 2017. So you’re suggesting that over 99% of kids who could finish top 8 in the country skip the meet... I’d guess it’s something closer to 200 at the most.

https://www.nationalscholastic.org/files/results/2017_NBNO_complete_results_-_updated_June_20.htm

Fassssst Times wrote:

I've heard something like 10, 000 or so. One coach I was visiting with said sub-15 kids come a "dime a dozen" these days.

I would guess there's probably this many that can break 10 for 3200. Breaking 15 for 5k is substantially harder.

There are about 50 in the US and only Kenya may have a chance to have more. I don’t know if people are joking when they post things like this. XC always has a bunch of 14:50 type times but the kids end up running 15:30 at nationals so I wouldn’t trust the accuracy of the courses. Until recently, there were only a few kids per year breaking 9:00 so the times have improved a bit but sub-15 just doesn’t happen unless you are a national elite.

Too many wrote:

I don’t thing there’s any chance it’s that many. Obviously this isn’t close to a full year representative sample, but only 8 kids broke 15 at new balance nationals in 2017. So you’re suggesting that over 99% of kids who could finish top 8 in the country skip the meet... I’d guess it’s something closer to 200 at the most.

Only 200 in a country this size? We've got to have at least 1,000 to keep up with Japan that the OP referenced. If it's only 200 then, other countries are going to think we're chumpy and just play video games all the time. I bet Kenya must have 5000 + easily. We've got to get our butts moving!

Per IAAF scoring tables 15:00 for 5000m is about 9:25 for 2 miles, or about 9:22 for 3200m/ 8:45 for 3000m. So if you look at last year's milesplit list that should give you some idea. Usually high schoolers are undertrained aerobically so the equivalent 2 mile time might be a couple of seconds faster on average. Japanese high schoolers run a lot and reach their aerobic potential much earlier on average than American high schoolers.

pvvy65 wrote:

Per IAAF scoring tables 15:00 for 5000m is about 9:25 for 2 miles, or about 9:22 for 3200m/ 8:45 for 3000m. So if you look at last year's milesplit list that should give you some idea. Usually high schoolers are undertrained aerobically so the equivalent 2 mile time might be a couple of seconds faster on average. Japanese high schoolers run a lot and reach their aerobic potential much earlier on average than American high schoolers.

You'd think it would be the other way around - that Japanese kids would be bookworms and not running that much and our kids would be running like crazy. Japan doesn't seem like a country that much into distance running. Sprinting & ski jumping is supposed to be their passion when it comes to sports.

7.3

Maybe there are just too many 0s in the number. There are probably 50 in Japan. There aren’t 5000 college age in Japan who could do that.

Too many wrote:

I don’t thing there’s any chance it’s that many. Obviously this isn’t close to a full year representative sample, but only 8 kids broke 15 at new balance nationals in 2017. So you’re suggesting that over 99% of kids who could finish top 8 in the country skip the meet... I’d guess it’s something closer to 200 at the most.

https://www.nationalscholastic.org/files/results/2017_NBNO_complete_results_-_updated_June_20.htm

200! Phew, that's more than a tad high. Maybe 40?

Fassssst Times wrote:

I've heard something like 10, 000 or so. One coach I was visiting with said sub-15 kids come a "dime a dozen" these days.

Yep. Drew Hunter is an average talent.

Wherever 9:20 is on the national list. That's how many should be able to do it

Probably more than you'd usually think, but less than you'd expect compared to Japan.

If the 5k was the only distance event, I'd bet that somewhere around 1100-1500 could manage a sub-15.

Given that most distance athletes are focused on the 1600, I'd say a more realistic estimate would be around 250-500 would break 15:00 for 5k given decent circumstances.

3 per state in the northeast. 2 per state in south east. 4 per state in southwest

9 per Calif. 3 per state in northwest