A course like Chicago marathon where you run it 4 times and the finish line is at mile 100. The top 5 men and women get 5 million bucks to split up. What type of times would we see from 2:04 Africans? Would we see the best marathons bump up to this distance for a payout chance like this?
bruh what are you even asking
Million Dollar Question wrote:
A course like Chicago marathon where you run it 4 times and the finish line is at mile 100. The top 5 men and women get 5 million bucks to split up. What type of times would we see from 2:04 Africans? Would we see the best marathons bump up to this distance for a payout chance like this?
If you offered that much money in the regular marathon or on the track and field, you’d see the current records, held by the same Africans and their brethren, drop. Essentially, if any billionaires were real fans of the sport and were interested in seeing records drop (never mind other consequences and policy considerations) they would increase the prize purse as well as other facilitations requiring money (better pacers which increase probability of record breaking).
8:47 men
10:14 women
faster conditions might be on a track or crushed gravel/dirt road. The pounding of the pavement gets pretty bad after40-50 miles and could cost more time than the benefits of better traction/uniform surface.
For sure in a flat 100-miler there would be a very high correlation with marathon PR time and ultra-distance time. A lot less variables that can go exponentially wrong like in a mountain-trail 100-miler.
A lot of the East Africans would clean-up for sure....any guy with a sub 2:12-2:10 PR could be just as good as a 2:04 guy in a 100-miler though.....much like some 2:30 marathon types beat the 2:20 guys sometimes.
realistically I think you'd be looking at maybe something over 9 hrs still....maybe 9:30, but for sure sub 10hrs.
S. Canaday wrote:
faster conditions might be on a track or crushed gravel/dirt road. The pounding of the pavement gets pretty bad after40-50 miles and could cost more time than the benefits of better traction/uniform surface.
For sure in a flat 100-miler there would be a very high correlation with marathon PR time and ultra-distance time. A lot less variables that can go exponentially wrong like in a mountain-trail 100-miler.
A lot of the East Africans would clean-up for sure....any guy with a sub 2:12-2:10 PR could be just as good as a 2:04 guy in a 100-miler though.....much like some 2:30 marathon types beat the 2:20 guys sometimes.
realistically I think you'd be looking at maybe something over 9 hrs still....maybe 9:30, but for sure sub 10hrs.
If every marathoner ever could race a 100 at their peak, I’d give the nod to Tsegaye Kebede. He’s not quite that 2:02/2:03 type guy, but his efficiency was superb, he always raced intelligently, and his PR of 2:04 isn’t exactly hurting him. In fact, his worst times were 2:10s in taking 3rd and 4th in Olympics and World Championships. Kebede wouldn’t go out too fast and blow up, and he’d just steadily run through and crush the course. I must disagree that anything under 10 hours is realistic. The 100k world record (6:01 pace) was by 2:10:07 guy Takahiro Sunada (that PR from the same time that he was doing 100ks, so his 100k wasn’t when he was past his marathon prime), and Sunada was absolutely optimized, training wise, for long distance road ultras, with a lot of practice at very fast, very long races. To go sub 10, someone would have to go faster than Sunada’s 100k pace for an extra 38 miles. I think someone like Kebede could about match the pace, as he was legitimately more fit and probably even more efficient, but the idea of going faster is kind of crazy. I feel like your expectations are usually a bit too modest of what marathon guys can do at ultras, but “maybe something over 9 hours still...”? Talking about 9 hours is ridiculous. You really think that the discussion is even worth having regarding someone running 100 miles at nearly 40 seconds per mile faster than the best 100k pace of all time?
When I win the Powerball and it's over $150 million (after taxes), I'll do this.
Here are a few conditions I would have:
1. No more than 8 months out
2. All participants are required to submit multiple blood samples, which will be held for 10 years and testing done in accordance with WADA .
3. Payout to be held in escrow and, if, after 10 years, winner is proven clean, money will be paid out.
4. All runners to wear bib with 100% gps tracking at all times
5. No pacers. No music.
Stay tuned. More to come
I didn't say I think someone can run 9 hours flat. I think the possibility to run 9:xx is there though. Four sub 2:30 marathons in a row for a 2:05-2:04 guy may be possible....in good conditions...on a track...with a pack of competition and that much prize money on the line. Yeah, they might only be able to just get under 10hours and I'll admit that throwing out 9:30 is probably too ambitious and optimistic... but I think it's possible for someone to run 9hrs:xx.
Peak-shape Kebede FTMFW wrote:
S. Canaday wrote:
faster conditions might be on a track or crushed gravel/dirt road. The pounding of the pavement gets pretty bad after40-50 miles and could cost more time than the benefits of better traction/uniform surface.
For sure in a flat 100-miler there would be a very high correlation with marathon PR time and ultra-distance time. A lot less variables that can go exponentially wrong like in a mountain-trail 100-miler.
A lot of the East Africans would clean-up for sure....any guy with a sub 2:12-2:10 PR could be just as good as a 2:04 guy in a 100-miler though.....much like some 2:30 marathon types beat the 2:20 guys sometimes.
realistically I think you'd be looking at maybe something over 9 hrs still....maybe 9:30, but for sure sub 10hrs.
If every marathoner ever could race a 100 at their peak, I’d give the nod to Tsegaye Kebede. He’s not quite that 2:02/2:03 type guy, but his efficiency was superb, he always raced intelligently, and his PR of 2:04 isn’t exactly hurting him. In fact, his worst times were 2:10s in taking 3rd and 4th in Olympics and World Championships. Kebede wouldn’t go out too fast and blow up, and he’d just steadily run through and crush the course. I must disagree that anything under 10 hours is realistic. The 100k world record (6:01 pace) was by 2:10:07 guy Takahiro Sunada (that PR from the same time that he was doing 100ks, so his 100k wasn’t when he was past his marathon prime), and Sunada was absolutely optimized, training wise, for long distance road ultras, with a lot of practice at very fast, very long races. To go sub 10, someone would have to go faster than Sunada’s 100k pace for an extra 38 miles. I think someone like Kebede could about match the pace, as he was legitimately more fit and probably even more efficient, but the idea of going faster is kind of crazy. I feel like your expectations are usually a bit too modest of what marathon guys can do at ultras, but “maybe something over 9 hours still...”? Talking about 9 hours is ridiculous. You really think that the discussion is even worth having regarding someone running 100 miles at nearly 40 seconds per mile faster than the best 100k pace of all time?
S. Canaday wrote:
I didn't say I think someone can run 9 hours flat. I think the possibility to run 9:xx is there though.
Four sub 2:30 marathons in a row for a 2:05-2:04 guy may be possible....in good conditions...on a track...with a pack of competition and that much prize money on the line. Yeah, they might only be able to just get under 10hours and I'll admit that throwing out 9:30 is probably too ambitious and optimistic... but I think it's possible for someone to run 9hrs:xx.
Peak-shape Kebede FTMFW wrote:
If every marathoner ever could race a 100 at their peak, I’d give the nod to Tsegaye Kebede. He’s not quite that 2:02/2:03 type guy, but his efficiency was superb, he always raced intelligently, and his PR of 2:04 isn’t exactly hurting him. In fact, his worst times were 2:10s in taking 3rd and 4th in Olympics and World Championships. Kebede wouldn’t go out too fast and blow up, and he’d just steadily run through and crush the course. I must disagree that anything under 10 hours is realistic. The 100k world record (6:01 pace) was by 2:10:07 guy Takahiro Sunada (that PR from the same time that he was doing 100ks, so his 100k wasn’t when he was past his marathon prime), and Sunada was absolutely optimized, training wise, for long distance road ultras, with a lot of practice at very fast, very long races. To go sub 10, someone would have to go faster than Sunada’s 100k pace for an extra 38 miles. I think someone like Kebede could about match the pace, as he was legitimately more fit and probably even more efficient, but the idea of going faster is kind of crazy. I feel like your expectations are usually a bit too modest of what marathon guys can do at ultras, but “maybe something over 9 hours still...”? Talking about 9 hours is ridiculous. You really think that the discussion is even worth having regarding someone running 100 miles at nearly 40 seconds per mile faster than the best 100k pace of all time?
I’m genuinely curious as to specifically which runners you think would be able to run faster than 2:10 guy Sunada’s 100km pace for a full 100 miles. Also, are you suggesting that the 2:04-2:05 guys would need to change their training, or do you think they could do it now? Arguably, Sunada’s focusing on 100km made him less optimized for the marathon. Who knows... Maybe he was actually a 2:07 or 2:08 guy if he didn’t focus on the longer stuff. For the record, 100 miles is not 4 marathons at sub-2:30. 4 marathons at sub-2:30 is actually a 9:31 100 mile split. So, which is it? 9:30 is too ambitious but 9:31 isn’t? There’s a huge difference between 25 miles in 2:30 and 26.2 miles in 2:30.
The current World Records are held by two Comrades Champions who beat the fast marathoners for 87-89k, so multiply the distance by 2 and they beat the fast marathoners by even more.
RIP: D3 All-American Frank Csorba - who ran 13:56 in March - dead
RENATO can you talk about the preparation of Emile Cairess 2:06
Running for Bowerman Track Club used to be cool now its embarrassing
Hats off to my dad. He just ran a 1:42 Half Marathon and turns 75 in 2 months!
Great interview with Steve Cram - says Jakob has no chance of WRs this year