facts as a public service wrote:
Desi's elite marathon history -
2010- 2:26:20 Chicago
2011- 2:22:38 Boston
2012- 2:25:55 Houston O. Trials (followed by injury)
2013- 2:29:15 Berlin
2014- 2:23:54 Boston
2015- 2:29:39 Boston
2016- 2:28:54 Los Angeles O. Trials
2016- 2:26:08 Rio Olympics
2017- 2:25:06 Boston
Lots of fodder for discussion there. She has been wonderfully consistent in her marathon performances, but never in the hunt for a win since 2011. Her times have been coming down again since 2015 and two of those have been in tough hot weather races in LA and Rio. I am a huge fan of Desi, but my best guess is second American behind Shalane or Hasay, with one of them having an off day. If it was a half marathon I would put my money on Huddle, but I think she may not be ready for a breakout marathon performance yet.
Times only tell part of the story, so I've added her finishing places:
2010- 2nd, 2:26:20 Chicago
2011- 2nd, 2:22:38 Boston
2012- 2nd, 2:25:55 Houston O. Trials (followed by injury)
2013- 5th, 2:29:15 Berlin
2014- 10th, 2:23:54 Boston
2015- 5th, 2:29:39 Boston
2016- 2nd, 2:28:54 Los Angeles O. Trials
2016- 7th, 2:26:08 Rio Olympics
2017- 4th, 2:25:06 Boston
Linden is good enough, particularly if she can recapture her 2010-11 form, to win a major on a lucky day. She's good enough to get second, and that's just one woman having a bad day or misjudging her move or tweaking a hamstring away from winning the thing. She's a little like a female Meb. Meb didn't have the track speed to give him a fearsome kick and he never entered a race with the fastest PR, yet he won two majors by consistently showing up, running his best race, and waiting for the day when that was good enough for the win. One tactic I'd like to see her learn from Meb is to try to break away early like he did in his Boston win. She might be enough of an underdog at this point that they'd let her go. Of course that takes some luck. Meb's lucky break was that Dennis Kimetto was in the race fresh off of his world record. He was already fried but no one knew that yet so when Meb broke away, everyone looked at Kimetto. Kimetto didn't respond and by the time eventual runner-up Wilson Chebet realized he was the class of the field on that day, Meb had an insurmountable lead.