Desi Linden Boston marathon champion, chances?

If molly is still there with 5k or 10k to go, everyone else can forget about it. She has the 5k road american record, and the american 10000m track record. She beat Shalane at the USAs in 10000m earlier this year, and hasay and linden are not even close in speed.

However, if she is not there with 6 miles to go, which is a huge possibility because she is still learning to run the marathon,

then I have to go with Hasay. She has proven that she can go out with the africans at 2ub 2:20 pace. I don't think Shalane can do that, Mary K ran slow in New York. It wasn't a fast race at all.

I love Linden, but does not have the speed to close out. If she goes out early, the others will catch her, and we know she is not winning a kick battle.

It's simply a matter of who has the best training segment. We already know how they'll race.

Desi must set the pace and keep it honest. That is how she races best. For her to race any other way will play into everyone else's hand.

Shalane and Jordan will both do the exact same thing go with the leaders and make a move late. If the leaders run 5:15 pace they will go with it. If the pace is 6:00 they will not change a thing.

Molly will also do the same thing as Shalane and Jordan except she will run her own race if it drops below 5:25 pace in the first half.

If they all run to their strengths then it is just a matter of who is most fit on race day.

Acobo de comer wrote:

First sentence correct. Second sentence wrong. Desi and especially Shalane will complain about cheating with drugs AGAIN!

Was going to say this too, but it all boils down to jealousy and Poppy Syndrome. People need to give credit where it’s due. Jordan is the future AR holder.

Brian Sold wrote:

If Hasay were the topic of the thread, I'd say the same thing.

And you'd still be an idiot

Why does Hanson think Linden has a chance if she sits and waits against others with so much more short speed than her? Does she ever go out and try to run over her head? Sure it may result in a blow up but is that worse than another 5-10th place finish?

No chance.

She's a talented runner, it would be a breakthrough race for her to win.

Sh*t happens, not seeing it happen for her.

Sandiegofavorite wrote:

She was 3rd last year, has always been a contender. She’s said she’s mixed up her training to get out of her recent plateau and i dont doubt the Hanson’s ability to train an athlete of her caliber. She hasn’t been as ambitious in her goals this year yet... maybe she can get it done!

Um, ever heard of Jordan Hasay?!?

Hasay was 3rd, Des was 4th.

She made the mistake of not using her endurance properly at the 2012 Olympic Trials. Desi was afraid to run by herself, so she sat with the lead group. Shalane beat her because of this.

I don't think that Desi is physically able to beat Shalane or Jordan anymore.

She should stop going to Africa and just stay in Michigan to train. Her best results came from staying in Michigan vs following the crowd and training like them.

Molly and Shalane will finish very close together. They are essentially the same basic type of runner- 10k specialist moving up. Molly will surpass Shalane eventually, although I'm not confident she has it in her for this showdown.

Zero chance. Des is not a racer, she's a time trialist. She has trained alone and raced way too rarely to mix it up anymore - she will either run identical or negative splits and make podium because others blow up. She also doesn't have the confidence for a break through race, she's going to run whatever she thinks she's in shape for. She's lost that beginner breakthrough or DNF mentality, which you need to actually go for it.

Sandiegofavorite wrote:

She was 3rd last year, has always been a contender. She’s said she’s mixed up her training to get out of her recent plateau and i dont doubt the Hanson’s ability to train an athlete of her caliber. She hasn’t been as ambitious in her goals this year yet... maybe she can get it done!

I haven't cared enough to look it up but I wonder how Desi's 5K PR compares with Shalane's final 5K at NYC? It seems like she doesn't have that gear to win these type of races, unless she got away from the pack (Meb '14 style), but I don't see anyone letting that happen...

kadoo wrote:

Zero chance. Des is not a racer, she's a time trialist. She has trained alone and raced way too rarely to mix it up anymore - she will either run identical or negative splits and make podium because others blow up. She also doesn't have the confidence for a break through race, she's going to run whatever she thinks she's in shape for. She's lost that beginner breakthrough or DNF mentality, which you need to actually go for it.

Thank you. I'm still waiting for someone to name a race against even medium-level competition she's won as a pro.

not how it works... wrote:

MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:

I give her a 50% chance of winning. Either she does or she doesn't.

That's not how odds work. Giving her a 50% chance of winning means that you feel she would win once if she had two chances at the exact same race.

+1 to MeHereYouWhere?! for getting this sucker to respond.

Poppy Syndrome. wrote:

I predict Jordan wins and takes everyone to the woodshed. Then it’s crickets chirping on the internet cause of all the jealously.

Oh but the crickets won't chirp- they'll accuse her of PEDS. Jealousy, yes.

facts as a public service wrote:

Desi's elite marathon history -

2010- 2:26:20 Chicago

2011- 2:22:38 Boston

2012- 2:25:55 Houston O. Trials (followed by injury)

2013- 2:29:15 Berlin

2014- 2:23:54 Boston

2015- 2:29:39 Boston

2016- 2:28:54 Los Angeles O. Trials

2016- 2:26:08 Rio Olympics

2017- 2:25:06 Boston

Lots of fodder for discussion there. She has been wonderfully consistent in her marathon performances, but never in the hunt for a win since 2011. Her times have been coming down again since 2015 and two of those have been in tough hot weather races in LA and Rio. I am a huge fan of Desi, but my best guess is second American behind Shalane or Hasay, with one of them having an off day. If it was a half marathon I would put my money on Huddle, but I think she may not be ready for a breakout marathon performance yet.

Times only tell part of the story, so I've added her finishing places:

2010- 2nd, 2:26:20 Chicago

2011- 2nd, 2:22:38 Boston

2012- 2nd, 2:25:55 Houston O. Trials (followed by injury)

2013- 5th, 2:29:15 Berlin

2014- 10th, 2:23:54 Boston

2015- 5th, 2:29:39 Boston

2016- 2nd, 2:28:54 Los Angeles O. Trials

2016- 7th, 2:26:08 Rio Olympics

2017- 4th, 2:25:06 Boston

Linden is good enough, particularly if she can recapture her 2010-11 form, to win a major on a lucky day. She's good enough to get second, and that's just one woman having a bad day or misjudging her move or tweaking a hamstring away from winning the thing. She's a little like a female Meb. Meb didn't have the track speed to give him a fearsome kick and he never entered a race with the fastest PR, yet he won two majors by consistently showing up, running his best race, and waiting for the day when that was good enough for the win. One tactic I'd like to see her learn from Meb is to try to break away early like he did in his Boston win. She might be enough of an underdog at this point that they'd let her go. Of course that takes some luck. Meb's lucky break was that Dennis Kimetto was in the race fresh off of his world record. He was already fried but no one knew that yet so when Meb broke away, everyone looked at Kimetto. Kimetto didn't respond and by the time eventual runner-up Wilson Chebet realized he was the class of the field on that day, Meb had an insurmountable lead.

I don't think people are giving Molly Huddle enough credit. Desi is a great runner, but past her marathon prime and isn't going to beat all 3 of the others. Shalane is not going to pull off two amazing marathons back-to-back. Jordan might be the fastest marathoner of all of them, but it is really unlikely that she is going to just run away from everybody. Molly is the fastest of all of them on the track, has been incredible on the roads, and just isn't going to lose to any of these folks if she is still there at 20 miles.

Kimetto ran his WR 5 months after Meb won Boston.

Meanwhile, ya'll are debating between these 4 to determine the winner and if I'm not mistaken the international field is yet to be announced. What a time to be a US women's marathon fan I guess.

Brian Sold wrote:

Kimetto ran his WR 5 months after Meb won Boston.

Oops, you are right. Kimetto had that odd 2nd place finish in Berlin in 2012 where it looked like he let Geoffrey Mutui win then had ran 2:03:45 which was 22 seconds off of Kipsang's WR in Chicago 2013 leading up to the Boston race. So he wasn't the WR holder yet but he was still very much the class of the field on paper. I maintain that his having a bad day was a big stroke of luck in letting Meb break away.