depends what he wants to do. I don't doubt he can run 2:40. It all depends what he wants to do, and what he tries to do.
depends what he wants to do. I don't doubt he can run 2:40. It all depends what he wants to do, and what he tries to do.
This depends on how he's going to run the race.
He said he's going out at 7:30 pace (and is only hoping for sub 3:30)... if that's true, he won't be breaking 3... if he goes at 7:30 pace and feels alright in the second half, is he willing to push it? Or will he be content with running 7:30's? If he pushes it, I could see about 3:12. I don't think he'll be running sub 7's at any point, unless he's bsing about the speed he's planning to run, so he won't be able to make up that much ground to break 3.
I'd be very surprised if he doesn't break 3:30 though.
Who really cares!!!!
crumpet wrote:
I don't doubt he can run 2:40.
I don't doubt he cannot run anywhere close to 2:40
Ran with him in Austin. I feel he's in 2:42 shape or a bit slower.
I hope you feels the pain that he deserves to feel for being unprepared to run a marathon.
Mountaineering might help with your 5k or 10k, but it does not emulate the sustained effort needed to run a marathon. Sorry Nick. It takes more than living out your favorite Hemingway stories to run a good marathon.
kljlk wrote:
Ran with him in Austin. I feel he's in 2:42 shape or a bit slower.
if true, that makes sense.
Look, if he is basically planning on jogging it/"enjoying it", and the weather is hell, yes I understand all the 3:00-3:30 predictions. But those people saying "oh, only one 15 mile long run, low mileage.....oh, the marathon will crush him"....silly. I was a complete hobby jogger compared to Nick. was also an 800/mile guy. In my late 20's, doing triathlon training for fun (only a few actual tri's), then transitioned into just running every other day, biking a few other days. My mileage was also like 20-25 a week (at best), with a little supplemental biking. I ran a 1/2 marathon tune-up (went very poorly), and then ran one 20 miler (surprisingly held on to complete it without totally crashing). My miles were low, my quality was fairly non-existent, and my half was much slower than I ran 2 years before (the only other half marathon of my life). Then I ran Boston. I crashed the last 5 miles (after getting up and down the hills well), and walked several times. I ran 3:10. 2 years earlier, with same mileage and training , based on my half, I would have at least run 2:50. (and no, I ain't bragging.....the longer the race, the worse I get)
How Nick could not run 2:45 if he cared at all.....(and weather wasn't brutal) would shock me. But maybe he has been just jogging lately and doesn't really care. And maybe the weather will be as tough as you all say. If so....then yeah, sounds like he is only shooting for a 3:30 jog.
It doesn't matter what he runs. Nick has already won by getting over half of LRC to get their panties in a bunch.
2:57:42
I think a lot of the predictions saying 3:30 are after Nick said he's just gonna try to run 7:30s and break 3:30. My original prediction I made weeks ago without knowing this recent information put him at about 3:05.
Have you seen Nick's training in his fittest year ever (his 2012 log)? It's atrocious to think he could ever run close to the times he did. His training isn't at all impressive until the last couple months before the olympics.
Just a month or two ago Nick attempted 8x1k, starting at around 3:3X low pace, and DIED by the 5th rep. What kind of 800m/1500m runner who is 'training' for the marathon dies during 3:30 1k reps. He's not going to go out and jog 2:40 something or even 2:50 something, unless he has been lying (a lot) about his training.
Bank it wrote:
DNF
^^This
30+ minute positive split. If he is lucky.
I can't imagine that he can keep himself to a 7:30 pace to begin.
I wouldn't be stunned to see 3:45 finish
Luv2Run wrote:
Vin Lanono wrote:
3:05
He does not know how to properly refuel for 26.2
He says a Gu every 45 minutes and then RunGum at mile 20
You don't need any fuel for a marathon.
DNF.
He is going to go out hard and die.
Bruce tulloh ran 2:35 off 30mpw
My prediction has no range. I am a nick fan and here is what I see. 5k: 23:23. ( being cautious) 10k 47: 19 13.11 1:37:19 Then this 20 mile 2:28:15 Push/pull for 21-24 : 3:04:39 Final 2.2 8.4 + 7.67+ 1.4= 17.47 Nick's time: 3:21:50 Quote me on this
predict the pain wrote:
Claims his longest run in training was only 15 miles.
I predict 2:39.
He ran a 1:24 half marathon in a race like a month ago. Then he got hurt for 2 weeks. I would say he was on shape to be close to 3 hours (maybe a little over when he hits the wall), but with the 2 week injury setback and failure to really build up his mileage, 3:20 at best.
2:04 ftw
He will have had a spicy meal with some craft beers the night before the race with a few fans who picked up the tab.
A port-a-john stop just past half way will be an extended stop. He will leave the john to find his quads essentially locked, try walking for 2 to 3 miles then take the meat wagon back to the start at mile 18.
I don't see why anyone would care what he does in this race, since he didn't take the prep even remotely seriously. Not fun to follow someone's training if they're not even trying. He should have taken some time away from the sport, then come back refreshed, and people would have been intrigued since he came back from a time away. This is like Tortorella taking the VAN job shortly immediately after things ended badly with NYR -- then VAN turned into a disaster in part because he didn't have time away to reflect, take stock, and come back improved. Things going much better with CLB it would appear.
It's fun to follow Colin McCourt because he treated the 5K with respect this past year, and I am sure will do the same this year in the marathon.