NXN 2018

I could go super in depth with this but let me just say for girls:

Mark my words, FM will not win next year.

Watch out for Naperville North, Mountain Vista, Wayzata, Battle Mountain, and Great Oak. Among others.

same wrote:

I could go super in depth with this but let me just say for girls:

Mark my words, FM will not win next year.

Watch out for Naperville North, Mountain Vista, Wayzata, Battle Mountain, and Great Oak. Among others.

Ok. I say FM will win next year. I'll check back in a year and see who's right!

California D2 is improving and could start to qualify for NXN instead of the D1 teams and I REALLY think someone needs to kick Great Oaks ass at state so they get off their high horse.

If someone was to do the maths, on typical y/y drops, *by program* (and coach) for kids , there's already a corpus of year over year drops, on average, for top N kids. You could see, by the numbers, for the kids returning, what the average drop per kid per year per program was.

I'll mess with scraping milesplit unless there's a database of nice, tidy CSVs... (I'm a noob, so sorry if there's a database, or this scraping , or maths has been done ).

It'll be interesting to see what programs do create the best drops, for a kid for a 4 year period...

The other thing, that Marc Hunter pointed out, is to make sure teams were scored with the same kids, in each meet. He had a kid running NXR unattached - guessing he felt he could still win AND get other non NXN kids a shot at the exposure (which is so cool)

Loudoun Valley could be the first boys team to win the second consecutive NXN championship next year. They are returning 4 runners that raced at NXN, and 2 more that didn’t race but are similar to the 5th-7th runners that did race. LV had better 5th-7th runners than any other team in the race did.

Other teams that will have a shot at the podium finish include F-M, Burnt Hills, Great Oak, Dana Hills, and St Francis Mountain View.

Ben Otis from F-M is actually a senior, not a sophomore as listed in the NXN results. Otherwise F-M would be a team to beat on the boys side next year.

Looks like St Francis Mountain View will have a chance to beat Great Oak next year. Great Oak is losing 3 guys, and St Francis is only losing 1.

We’ll see if St Francis will run in the Division 1 race at state championships next year so they can face Great Oak. Ventura were in the Div 2 race in 2014 and won but they were in the Div 1 race in 2015.

Also look for CBA to be back up near the top. Returning 4 of 7, including 2-3-4 runners. Also will have back their #1 returner from last year who missed this season due to injury. Should be a lot of very solid teams next year once again.

American Fork Boys will be another team to watch next season. They will be the best team in the SW region. This season they beat Timpanogos and Springville before NXR. All of the teams that beat AF at NXR were full of seniors. Top 4 at AF were juniors and all of those 4 ran a sub 16 at NXR. If they can find a 5th man they can challenge for a spot on the podium.

Agree with this, but keep in mind that their “#1 returner” from last year’s team only assumed that role because of illness that slowed down their lead runner the last two races. While they return a talented group of underclassman, they were very up and down and will be losing their very consistent low stick.

Niles wrote:

same wrote:

I could go super in depth with this but let me just say for girls:

Mark my words, FM will not win next year.

Watch out for Naperville North, Mountain Vista, Wayzata, Battle Mountain, and Great Oak. Among others.

Ok. I say FM will win next year. I'll check back in a year and see who's right!

FM for the win, Kinetic (Saratoga) will be 2nd.

saint x from ky to get ranked in top 25 and then go home DEVESTATED by NOT QUALIFYING at NXR

I think Mountain Vista has the best chance to win the NXN girls race next year. They are returning all of their 1-5. 4 of the FM girls that raced at NXN this year are seniors.

What makes you think Saint X will be ranked next year? I know you're a troll

Input wrote:

I think Mountain Vista has the best chance to win the NXN girls race next year. They are returning all of their 1-5. 4 of the FM girls that raced at NXN this year are seniors.

They are graduating 4 seniors and that's why they will be better next year. They have 4/7 seniors at NXN about as often as they have 4/7 girls that are in 8-10 grade. They'll do just fine.

Wasn’t he top 10 at NXR? He was top returner in the Northeast. That’s a pretty big hole on this team.

Conant Smith will be in the top 3 along with drew bosley and the other junior from california. He had a breakout year and he will not miss a beat next season

NY Bowdoin wrote:

Wasn’t he top 10 at NXR? He was top returner in the Northeast. That’s a pretty big hole on this team.

I did not deny that he was a big loss to their team, as any loss of a high scorer would be a huge loss to any team. Having him back and assuming he reaches the same fitness as before injury will defineately provide a huge boost to their lineup. Also to clarify by "top returner in the Northeast" you must mean top returner at NXR on that day as throughout that season and track season there were certainly others with better credentials for that title.

If only that were valid wrote:

Input wrote:

I think Mountain Vista has the best chance to win the NXN girls race next year. They are returning all of their 1-5. 4 of the FM girls that raced at NXN this year are seniors.

They are graduating 4 seniors and that's why they will be better next year. They have 4/7 seniors at NXN about as often as they have 4/7 girls that are in 8-10 grade. They'll do just fine.

On the other hand, FM usually has a deeper pool of non-scorers to work with than they had this year.

Still, I agree, FM is the team to beat until proven otherwise.

Early predictions for boys teams to auto qualify for NXN next year:

California:

St Francis Mountain View/Great Oak

Northwest:

Kamiakin/Central Valley

Heartland:

Wayzata/Middleton

Midwest:

Wheaton Warrenville/Neuqua Valley

Southwest:

American Fork/Dakota Ridge

South:

Smithson Valley/Flower Mound

Southeast:

Loudoun Valley/Bolles

Northeast:

CBA/Xavier

New York:

FM/Burnt Hills

watch out for xavier next year. they did not have the best day at nxn and are returning a lot from their CT state champion, new england champion, and nxr champion team. definitely a top 10 team at nxn next year. bishop hendricken is looking good for next year too. their whole top 7 is returning after a 3rd place finish at nxr to xavier and cba.