I had free time to do this. Sue me.
I took the top four CA girls who competed against both Claudia Lane and Katelyn Tuohy and compared the time differences from the CA State meet and NXN. I'm no ventolin or tullyrunner rating or whatever and I sure as hell am not good at math but thought this could be a good way of comparing.
Claudia Lane - 16:30
Mariah Castillo - 17:15 diff of 45s
Meagen Lowe - 17:20 diff of 50s
Haley Herberg - 17:00 diff of 30s
Corie Smith - 17:17 diff of 47s
average difference: 43 seconds
Katelyn Tuohy - 16:44
Mariah Castillo - 17:36 diff of 52s
Meagen Lowe - 18:05 diff of 81s
Haley Herberg - 18:05 diff of 81s
Corie Smith - 18:09 diff of 85s
average difference: 74 seconds
Going by this, it would seem that Katelyn Tuohy is indeed the superior runner. If we use time difference average as a guide, Claudia Lane would have finished in 2nd at NXN around 17:15.
Obviously, since she would finally have competition, Claudia Lane could conceivably run much faster but then again, so could Katelyn. While I could get into the fact that CA runners are at a disadvantage on a wet, muddy course in 40º conditions (hence worse performances vs their usual dry, hot conditions), Claudia herself would have experienced that wet weather/mud and likely would have also suffered from the same.
The CA State meet course (Woodward Park) and the Footlocker course (Balboa Park) run very similar in times. In my eyes, I think the only way for Claudia Lane to be considered on par with Katelyn Tuohy, she would have to run at least 16:15 to have a comparable race.
That is inconceivable when you realize only one person has ever run under 16:40 on that course.
Anyone else? Is 16:15 too fast of a time?