IdiotMarathoner wrote:
Thread title says it all. I'm running my first marathon Sunday at CIM. Never run more than 10 or 11 miles in my life. Haven't done any training runs in excess of 5 miles, most days closer to 3. But I have run every single day.
Over the summer I ran 16:30 for 3 miles off of similar training. I'm a 28 year old male.
Shooting for 3:30. Am I gonna be over or under?
Good luck tomorrow. I hope you go under 3:30, but I will be surprised if you do.
To keep a streak of "at least one marathon a year" going through my 20s and 30s, I "ran" a few marathons with similar preparation as you. Typically, I could maintain 8-flat miles through 20 miles, then had to walk/run the last six miles.
At that point, I could walk or I could run at maybe 7-minute mile-pace for 100 yards. My legs refused to jog at any slower pace. So, walk 100 yards, run a 100 yards. And finish in 3:45 or so.
You can try to build a "cushion" by starting faster, as some have suggested. My fear with that approach is that you'll hit the wall at 17 miles instead of 20, quickly negating the cushion. But it may be the only chance to finish sub-3:30.
Your 16:30 3-miler shows basic talent, and if you had incorporated a few long runs, or more overall volume, your chances would be very good.
Years ago I was chatting with a guy at the start of a marathon. He had never run further than 10 miles. Ever. I was shooting for 2:40, and he said he would tag along. At 24 miles, I started to fall slightly off pace, and he easily took off ahead of me.
He was coming off a college XC season, so I'm sure he had plenty of intensity and decent overall mileage, despite no long runs. Talent made up for that one deficit.
With the more modest goal of 3:30, perhaps talent can make up for no long runs AND no volume. I hope so. Best wishes!