That is not the bowdoin record. D.J Principe ran 15:18 last year.
That is not the bowdoin record. D.J Principe ran 15:18 last year.
the maths wrote:
Applying an 11% conversion factor to compare with boys' times, this is how their performances stack up:
Tuohy/ VCP 13:21 ~ 12:02 (M record 11:56 Cheserek)
Tuohy/Bowdoin 16:52 ~ 15:12 (M record 15:27 Nick Ryan)
Lane/Woodward 16:30 ~ 14:52 (M record 14:24 Fernandez)
The boys' record at Bowdoin is probably soft. Ryan won that 2012 race by 25 seconds. He ran 12:06 at VCP.
Nevertheless, it's impressive that Tuohy's Bowdoin record is clearly superior on the conversion. And her VCP is not all that far from Cheserek.
Lane's Woodward conversion is very good, better than any boys' time this year I believe, but not close to the Fernandez record.
Very interesting post. However, as you point out, Fernandez's record is far stronger than the others. No guy has run within 14 seconds of it. It should be noted that Lane is a sophomore and that no sophomore guy has ever broken 15 on that course.
runner67859 wrote:
That is not the bowdoin record. D.J Principe ran 15:18 last year.
Thank you for the correction. I said Ryan's was soft ;)
Reading on wrote:
Tuohy for sure. Top 3 times now at Bowdoin, well ahead of Cuffe and Cain.
Lane's time would have placed her 240th of 995 boys = top 25% at CIF.
Tuohy's time would have placed her 35th of 213 boys = top 17% at NXN NY.
California is a LOT tougher than New York on the boys side, though. Especially when considering NXR vs. State.
How do you know who is a fan of who?
Lane is a jr. It was also much warmer for Claudia than it was for German when they set their records. Her converted time is only 12 seconds slower than Fernandez’. Given the higher temps it’s not unreasonable to say the performances are equal. Baxter’s PR at Mt Sac is superior to her PR at Woodward.
MatthewXCountry wrote:
Very interesting post. However, as you point out, Fernandez's record is far stronger than the others. No guy has run within 14 seconds of it. It should be noted that Lane is a sophomore and that no sophomore guy has ever broken 15 on that course.
trying hard? wrote:
But do you guys really think Lane is trying her hardest? She's been holding back for most of the meets, except for Mt. SAC, Division prelims, and States. Tuohy has been racing for real this entire season. Lane, I'm sure, has a lot left in the tank to give.
wrong. Tuohy has been time trialing most of her races.
Hi I’m slow wrote:
Lane is a jr. It was also much warmer for Claudia than it was for German when they set their records. Her converted time is only 12 seconds slower than Fernandez’. Given the higher temps it’s not unreasonable to say the performances are equal.
Baxter’s PR at Mt Sac is superior to her PR at Woodward.
MatthewXCountry wrote:
Very interesting post. However, as you point out, Fernandez's record is far stronger than the others. No guy has run within 14 seconds of it. It should be noted that Lane is a sophomore and that no sophomore guy has ever broken 15 on that course.
Per the above and an 11% factor, Lane's converted Woodward time of 14:52 is 28 seconds slower than Fernandez's 14:24, not 12 seconds. You would have to apply a 13% factor to bring her converted time to 14:36.
Agree that Baxter's 16:00 at Mt Sac appears superior to her own 16:40 at Woodward. Not going to try to assess Lane's 15:49 because of the course construction issues.
In ideal conditions it is very reasonable to say that Lane would have run 16:10 for 5k!
If you compare her race to Division 3 boys - which was run right before her race you should see some very compelling evidence.
Her time would have finished 38th in the boys Div 3 race yesterday. However, last year 38th place in that same division (but better conditions) was 16:01. Even 50th place last year in that race was 16:11.
So if you do go off the 16:10 5k and then do the 11% conversion you get a 14:33 5k time, which would be the second fastest time in the history of CA.
The whole Mt. Sac construction issues argument is absolutely ludicrous.
Literally the only change was in the last 150m of the course. There is no way they would have significantly mis-measured 150m. They would likely have been accurate to the nearest meter. Also there is no significant difficulty advantage from making a turn and a net 10 ft. climb over the final meters. At most the difference is 2 seconds.
Conditions were good at Mt. Sac this year and very bad last year, so doing a direct comparison to a previous year is not a good measurement.
is this the official thread now?
Wejo, you should edit the title
Why are we not just looking at Tully's Speed Ratings? From what I can find, Tuohy's result at NXNNY (170) ranks her tied for 5th (?) all time. She's gonna be tough to beat...
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2017/NXN_NewYork_2017.htm#Girls
This is obviously out-dated, but it's the most recent I could find....
http://www.tullyrunners.com/articles/HighNationalSpeedRatings.htm
The reason people find TullyRunners so frustrating is that it is so damn accurate. People cannot accept that they are that good and no better. And with that said, the results speak for themselves.
Tuohy will wipe the floor with her - no contest.
Her performances at Bowdoin Park and VCP make her one of the greatest XC runners of all time. It's truly amazing honestly, many people do not see it. She's better than Mary Cain ever was, let alone as a sophomore. If she pans out, she vary well may be one of the biggest talents US distance running has ever seen. Dispute it all you want, speed ratings do not lie.
Barring an off day, the gap will be around 30+ seconds.
Apologies. Tuohy's NXNNY result isn't even the best she's posted at Bowdoin this season:http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2017/Feds2017.htm#Girls TR confirms: highest NY speed rating ever and top five nationally all-time
Settling the Debate wrote:
Why are we not just looking at Tully's Speed Ratings? From what I can find, Tuohy's result at NXNNY (170) ranks her tied for 5th (?) all time. She's gonna be tough to beat...
http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2017/NXN_NewYork_2017.htm#GirlsThis is obviously out-dated, but it's the most recent I could find....
http://www.tullyrunners.com/articles/HighNationalSpeedRatings.htm
So if Lane and Tuohy keep progressing and race as seniors would it be the greatest head to head race of all time in HS XC, boys or girls?
sophomore girl watcher wrote:
So if Lane and Tuohy keep progressing and race as seniors would it be the greatest head to head race of all time in HS XC, boys or girls?
Lane is a junior, Tuohy a soph.
YMMV wrote:
sophomore girl watcher wrote:
So if Lane and Tuohy keep progressing and race as seniors would it be the greatest head to head race of all time in HS XC, boys or girls?
Lane is a junior, Tuohy a soph.
Sorry, thought they were both sophs. So next year, I guess.
11% is an arbitrary number. One that i don’t agree with. Even if i did, how does an 11% conversion bring 16:30 to 14:52?
the maths wrote:
Hi I’m slow wrote:
Lane is a jr. It was also much warmer for Claudia than it was for German when they set their records. Her converted time is only 12 seconds slower than Fernandez’. Given the higher temps it’s not unreasonable to say the performances are equal.
Baxter’s PR at Mt Sac is superior to her PR at Woodward.
Per the above and an 11% factor, Lane's converted Woodward time of 14:52 is 28 seconds slower than Fernandez's 14:24, not 12 seconds. You would have to apply a 13% factor to bring her converted time to 14:36.
Agree that Baxter's 16:00 at Mt Sac appears superior to her own 16:40 at Woodward. Not going to try to assess Lane's 15:49 because of the course construction issues.
Easy. 14 x 60 = 840 + 52 = 892 seconds 892 × 1.11 = 990.12 seconds 990.92 / 60 = 16.52 or 16:30 10 % is T & F conversion though. 11% is kind.
Hi I’m Slow wrote:
11% is an arbitrary number. One that i don’t agree with. Even if i did, how does an 11% conversion bring 16:30 to 14:52?
the maths wrote:
Per the above and an 11% factor, Lane's converted Woodward time of 14:52 is 28 seconds slower than Fernandez's 14:24, not 12 seconds. You would have to apply a 13% factor to bring her converted time to 14:36.
Agree that Baxter's 16:00 at Mt Sac appears superior to her own 16:40 at Woodward. Not going to try to assess Lane's 15:49 because of the course construction issues.
So applying the 10 % conversion rule in this Lane to Fernandez comparison, she would actually need a 16:21 to equal his time....
ItGetsHard. wrote:
Easy.
14 x 60 = 840 + 52 = 892 seconds
892 × 1.11 = 990.12 seconds
990.92 / 60 = 16.52 or 16:30
10 % is T & F conversion though.
11% is kind.
Hi I’m Slow wrote:
11% is an arbitrary number. One that i don’t agree with. Even if i did, how does an 11% conversion bring 16:30 to 14:52?