So UNM's will certainly place it's top 4 quite high. But the 5th scorer is a problem.
Assuming UNM scores something like 25 points with its top 4, how low can the 5th person place and the lobos still win? Assuming the 5th scorer finishes 30, 45 or 60 seconds behind the 15th place finisher, the average point total for that 5th runner is 54, 90 and 119 points over the last 3 championships. The 5th place runner for UNM has varied from meet to meet as has the time behind the 4th runner which is between 30 and 60 seconds.
A 30 second differential gives UNM something around 75 points total. But 45 seconds yields something around 115 which probably won't be enough to beat the other 2 likely contenders.