ALMAZ AYANA : making 1/2 marathon debut at world's richest half on Sunday - PREDICT HER TIME

1:03:56

64:59

It is the Delhi Half Marathon. Not the best conditions. Probably right around 65. She could break 64 if the conditions were ideal.

In the 66 minute range probably, Delhi is generally very hot and the air sucks. Surely she still has world record potential at the half.

VIPAM wrote:

Ayana will debut on the quick Delhi 1/2 marathon against her top coat competitor who has a 1:06:19pb. What will Ayana run?

She will not face any real competition. No Kipkirui, No Jepchirchir, No Jepkosgei, No Jepchumba, so she will win. I'm not sure

what she will run, because she tends to slow down in the last 1/3 of her races. I don't think it will be anything blazing because this will be her first road race. There will be a transitioning period.

But at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if struggles a little, and does not win. The road is totally different from track, as Vivian is learning in her new marathon career.

All eyes will be watching that is for sure, and the competition just continues to grow in the women's division. It is becoming ridiculously stacked in the half marathon and marathon events.

next three years in marathon running:

dibaba

vivian

chelimo

cherono

M Dibaba

Hasay

F kipligat

Ayana

Huddle

hell, mary K might still be competing at a high level during that period. And Sifan Hassan stated that she would like to move up to longer distances on the road one day. Also, some of the blazing half marathon girls might move up! It's going to be bananas.

All the money is on the roads.

67-68

sub60 for sure.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I'm not sure what she will run, because she tends to slow down in the last 1/3 of her races. I don't think

Clueless ~ wrote:

Scorpion_runner wrote:

I'm not sure what she will run, because she tends to slow down in the last 1/3 of her races. I don't think

Due to her going out hard in WR pace in her races, she slows down in the later part of the race . That is fact, which is why she has yet to break the the 5ooom WR even when being on pace. The HM is a longer race, so if she goes out hard, like she usually does, I'm sure she will positive split.

If you were to break down her 5k/10 races, I'm willing to bet that she positive splits. Where as Dibaba and most fast runners in in track races would negative split. Ayana isn't a kicker, so she gets out fast and hard, but if you stay with her, she will fade.....That is how Vivian and Obiri have beaten her. So I'm not sure what you don't understand.

Can Ayana run hard from beginning to end like all the other great female half marathon runners, or will she fade in the ladt part of the race?....that is going to be the question.

VIPAM wrote:

Ayana will debut on the quick Delhi 1/2 marathon against her top coat competitor who has a 1:06:19pb. What will Ayana run?

Its an appearance money race ,agent set it up. Weather not great nor the course. No competition as they spent the budget on her.

1:05:40

Also, I think she is going to be the Wilson Kipsang of running, where she is going to turn the screw on every mile to beat people. However, if she has company in the last 2 miles or so, she will not win because she has no kick. We see it with Kipsang all the time. If bekele or kipchoge is still with him with 1 or 2 miles to go, you know he isn't going to win. No closing speed.

So ,again, it is going to be really interesting to see how she runs on the road.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

Can Ayana run hard from beginning to end like all the other great female half marathon runners, or will she fade in the ladt part of the race?....that is going to be the question.

If her epic 10.000m WR performance is anything to go by, then yes.

If pushed, I'll guess 1:05:00

Otherwise maybe slower if she doesn't need to go that fast to win... but as we've seen in 10k's, sometimes she goes hard even when not pushed. But going slower at the beginning followed by a fast last half or even 2/3 prob won't result in that fast of a time.

If she goes hard from the gun I wouldn't be shocked tho if she breaks the WR.

But again 1:05 flat is my prediction in this scenario.

she runs a 58 flat.

get her out.

It will be really interesting to see what pans out with Almaz at the longer distances.

If we analyse her 5 & 10km track performances we see that she wins almost every 5k race she runs UNLESS it is her second race within the week as per Olympics and worlds. In which case she cannot sustain to her usual standards.

Last year she was beaten into third at Olympic 5k fading badly after her outstanding 10k record. However three weeks later she blew away Obiri at the final diamond league meet in Brussels running 14.18. Both times she has doubled up on 10 then 5 km she has faded badly in the second race ( by her standards)

This makes her prospective performance in the half marathon intriguing. Almaz is a paradox in the way she demonstrates amazing strength and stamina in terms of maintaining a superior pace for longer periods than her competition in the 10k - however she fails to recover to run another race the same way within 5 days.

I have speculated previously that her unique solo front running style depletes energy Far more excessively than pack running. This is an argument as to why she may fade in the later stages of the race.

However , her beautiful ,galloping effortless looking ,rhythmic stride looks perfect for sustaining high pace for long periods. I believe that if she has trained for the longer distance adequately, we may see with Almaz that the longer the distance, the better she performs BUT also contemplate that half and marathons are more competitive at the top level than women's track 10k which has been soft since it was inserted into the women's events.

What's up, Hill. You Always provide a great observation of her running ability, so I agree with you. I can't wait to see what she does.

Scorpion_runner wrote:

Also, I think she is going to be the Wilson Kipsang of running, where she is going to turn the screw on every mile to beat people. However, if she has company in the last 2 miles or so, she will not win because she has no kick. We see it with Kipsang all the time. If bekele or kipchoge is still with him with 1 or 2 miles to go, you know he isn't going to win. No closing speed.

Yeah, except for the time in New York when he glared over at Desisa and then proceeded to annihilate him running 62 second pace for the last 400 meters.

Also most runners will economise their running style for the longer distances. I noticed Tirunesh Dibaba now has an over exaggerated elevated arm carriage with her arms held within the lateral spread of her rib cage.

This was very noticeable at the worlds when she ran the 10000m Tim Hutchings commented on her arm carriage which she had obviously modified for marathon running to conserve energy. Remember she was initially preparing to run the marathon at worlds until the Ethiopian fed requested she run the 10k (presumably concerned Almaz may not recover from her calf injury when they made the decision a few months before)

Almaz has an unusual arm carriage with her arms held out from her torso and swinging through ahead of her body, watch her run and you see her head is stationary but her body is pulled sharply left and right each long stride.

I wonder if this will take its toll in terms of shoulder and neck strain throughout the longer race.