Male junior. Regionals next week, and I'm going into it with zero confidence.
Timeline of my season (trying to go into detail, read as much as you'd like):
Summer:
Built up to and around 45mpw all summer about 15 mpw more than I had ever done. Felt pretty decent, nothing too exceptional; definitely some strong aerobic growth. No speed work besides occasional strides. Tempos made up bulk of workouts.
Early September: First big meet of the year, ultra-fast course but I throw down a 1:30 improvement from last year on the same course to run a 15:20 3-mile. Felt flawless; legs flying, ultra-focused, didn't slow down at any point in the race. Maintained about 45mpw (and I wouldn't bring this down all season really), started doing strides every other day or so.
Late September:
First feelings of fatigue. Legs heavy, weak, everything and can't finish a 5x1600 workout (first track workout of the season) completely & at a pace 10 seconds slower than my first race. Teammates that I had beaten by 10 seconds at the first race beat me by 20 here. Sit out a minor race to recover. Start feeling a little better.
Early October:
Training rebounds slightly. Have a good 8x800 workout. Second big race of the season comes along, run a 16:40 5K (~16:05 3mi) on a course that's should only be slightly slower than the first meet - definitely not 40 seconds slower. Mile 1 felt great, but legs felt shot after that marker. Training degrades slightly, but otherwise start to rebound again. Three weeks later and I'm already running some of my best workouts (admittedly a little slower than what I should be able to do based on my PR, but I had always been better in races than in training so wasn't worried), though still not feeling too well in my legs.
Late October:
Felt like I had recovered from whatever was wrong. Besides one tempo where my legs basically collapsed, I didn't feel seriously bad. Hill workouts felt very good. Got sick (just a common cold) for a week, so I sat out another minor race and through a track workout, but recover quickly.
Yesterday:
League finals. Might've just been my hardest race ever. Pushed really hard to stay with people that I should've been beating, but just couldn't keep up. Not much later after about the 1.5 mile marker, legs went from okay/kinda good to completely dead. Calfs tightened up and felt horrible. At no point in the race did I feel out of breath or even had tired breathing -- my legs just couldn't move faster. Wasn't even mad at my result because there was literally nothing left in my legs when I finished.
I really, really don't think I peaked too early. We started track workouts (and we still haven't done 400s) in late September -- before my first race it was all mileage and tempos. Haven't dropped mileage yet, and in fact it feels like the one thing I've been handling right -- this season I made sure to keep my easy runs easy.
Previous PRs of 4:38/10:03 in track if it matters.
Guess my question is what the hell could be going wrong? Is my season recoverable (with just about 3 weeks left until State)?