MIAC Track 2018

Carleton

Carleton is in an interesting position. They have three runners (Donson, Joey, and Sikes) who have run 1:57 or faster, but there next best runner, Nick Brusilow, has a PR of 2:01 and has only run 2:03 this spring. Also, he seems to be focusing on the 400 hurdles this spring anyway. This leaves them with four options:

1-Leave the team as is. Brusilow could run sub 2 and Donson could absolutely make up a big gap even if he doesn’t.

2-Put in Mueller. Mueller will have 25-30 minutes from the end of the 10k to the beginning of the 4x8. It’s not ideal, but if he recovers as well as he did indoors, this is a viable option. If Mueller runs the 1500 instead of the 10k, then he definitely will be in the 4x8, but it looks like he is focusing on the 10k.

3-Put a 400 runner in. Carleton has several fast 400 runners, who I’m sure could run 2:00 or faster with proper pacing.

4-Run the B squad. Carleton could allow their best runners to focus on open events and still potentially score a point or two with their B squad instead.

Personally, I think #1 or #3 are the best options, but I could see them choosing any of these.

Bethel

Bethel has a great chance to win the 4x8. They have one of the best 800m runners in the MIAC in Hatton, and three other guys under 1:58. I ranked Carleton ahead of Bethel because Carleton’s best team would probably beat Bethel’s best team, but I think it is more likely that Bethel has their four best runners running than Carleton.

St. Thomas

St. Thomas seems to be in the same position every year. They are loaded with guys running 1:58-2:00, but may not have the anchor they need to contend for the win. Kozlowski could be that difference-maker for them, but I expect them to rest him for the 800m finals the next day.

St. John’s

Similar to St. Thomas, St. John’s has several runners in the 1:58-2:00 range. I ranked St. Thomas ahead because of Kozlowski potentially running.

Gustavus

Gustavus has two great runners in Gustafson and Madigan, but there is a drop-off after them. Bobby Verchota ran 2:00 this weekend, and Bridger Pavelka (2:01 PR) ran 4:04 in the 1500. If those 2 perform well, Gustavus could challenge for top 3.

St. Olaf

St. Olaf is in a similar position to St. Thomas and St. John’s, but there depth is not as strong. I don’t expect Lonergan to run, but he could help them push for top 3.

Hamline

In addition to Jewson, Hamline has 5 runners between 2:01-2:02. I would guess that Jewson will rest for the 800m finals, and Hamline should be able to score without him.

Concordia

If Supinksi runs, Concordia should be able to score. If he doesn’t, Mac or St. Mary’s could beat them.

St. Mary’s

Krogman could give St. Mary’s a chance to score, but I think that would be a waste of effort.

Macalester

Similar to St. Mary’s, Ebner could help them score. Ebner is slower than Krogman so I ranked them lower.

Augsburg

My favorite part of track is not having to write about Augsburg. Why start now?

I would love to hear everyone’s thoughts on what each team will do. I think Carleton is in an especially interesting position.

Bethel definitely stacks it.

They think they can win. They want to dominate the relays. They have plenty of guys who's highest attainable goal is 4x800 champ (Huffmans, Lelinga, Whalstedt).

Carleton: DCG/JCG/Sikes/-----.

Donson will run 1500 OR 800, 4x800 and 4x400.. Joey will go 400, 4x800, 4x400.

Gustavus: FULL STACK

They can't hang in the open, so their 1:56 guys will definitely be in the 4x800.

St Thomas: Mueller/Kozlowski/Palyan/Wachter

That's a fast team. I think you're underestimating them.

St Olaf: C Squad

Cobbers: stack it, do ok. 6th?

Hamline: Jewson/Gustafson/dumb/dumber

Bad idea but they'll do it.

Saint Mary's: Won't run it. Krogman has one fast race in him per weekend, proves it consistently.

Saint John's: Lamb/Raasch/Fr/Fr.

Macalester: JV team runs it.

Augsburg: please dont.

10k

1. Tris Dodge

2. Lucas Mueller

3. Matthew Wilkinson

4. Andrew Stumbo

5. Thomas Lerdall

6. Tyler Bethke

7. Tre Collins

8. Andrew Fritz

Dark horse: Jake Kirsch, he ran some fast times this outdoor season after a mediocre indoor season. Most of Saint John's runners peak at outdoor conference. I would not be surprised if he scored.

5k

1. Lucas Mueller

2. Thomas Lerdall

3. Andrew Stumbo

4. Tris Dodge

5. Elliot Kadrofske

6. Jeremy Gilbertson

7. Keith Ketola

8. Karl Wachter

A few dark horses:

1. Jack Colleran, kind of the same as Jake. Didn't have a great indoor season, but I could see him sneaking into a top 8 spot. He has had a great outdoor season so far.

2. Collin Kiley, I know he ran a fast 5k already. I wouldn't predict him to score, but he already has shown he is in 15:30s shape.

3. Nick Kerbeshian, he snuck his way into the fast heat of the 3k indoors and proved he isn't afraid to stick with the top guys.

3k Steeple

1. Matthew Wilkinson

2. Parker Rosenau

3. Austin O'Hare

4. Anders Rasmussen

5. Matthew Burgstahler

6. Dan Allen

7. James Mathison

8. Justin Furcich

A few dark horses:

1. Alex Wischnack, in his first steeple he ran a decent time. In the right race there is a chance he can score.

2. Eric Bakken, the guy is a legend and the GOAT at air hockey. He is clutch when it counts. He showed it when he won the slow heat in indoors.

1500m

1. Donson Cook

2. Keith Ketola

3. Karl Wachter

4. William Anderson

5. Liban Jama

6. Sean Lonergan

7. Ezekiel Lelinga

8. Frank Gustafson

A few dark horses:

1. Sam Stresemann, he ran a filthy race at St. Thomas. I think he has it in him to score if he is in the race with 400 to go.

2. Sam Primozich, he is very inconsistent, but when he is on, nobody can stop him.

800m

1. Donson Cook

2. Evan Hatton

3. Kevin Lamb

4. Brandon Krogman

5. Joey Cook

6. Karl Kozlowski

7. Nolan Ebner

8. David Supinski

Dark horse: Too many...

Please, explain how Stumbo is going to beat Lerdall in the 10k and Ketola in the 5k. Then, explain how Lonergan is going to lose to Anderson and Jama. Finally, explain why you have two 4:10 guys who have both run over 4:20 this season as potential scorers in the 1500. Your predictions are fake news, you have clearly just lost terribly and don't know what to do with yourself. SAD!

May be just me, but I’m excited to see how the 10k unfolds. Will the Carleton horses drive the field to a fast race? Will somebody put the brakes on and make it tactical? Will dodge/mueller/wilkinson see some drawback on their performance due to their busy racing schedule?? Upsets?

Fast race favors the Carleton guys, but if they don’t take it out hard, there’s a few in there who can close pretty hard

I'm just going to throw out that Carleton has 4 of the top 10 400 guys in the conference...all sub 50...and all are underclassmen...

Someone mentioned it above, but its not crazy to think Carleton beats Bethel in the 4x4 at conference if one of Bethel's top guys dont run...

Also, my 4x8 sleeper team is St. Olaf. I think they get top 2.

Back it up. They'll need a ~7:42 to get 2nd this year.

Who's their top four? Lonergan-Ketola-Herman-Primozich. That's a ~7:46 if they FLY.

Out of UST, BET, and CAR, they'd have to drop two of them (by at least four seconds) before the anchor leg.

Took the words out of my mouth. Kadrofske is majorly underrated in this one too. Either this guy hates St Olaf, or he goes to St. Olaf and is trying out some sort of smokescreen technique

LOLopop wrote:

Go back to the pee wee leagues wrote:

Please, explain how Stumbo is going to beat Lerdall in the 10k and Ketola in the 5k. Then, explain how Lonergan is going to lose to Anderson and Jama. Finally, explain why you have two 4:10 guys who have both run over 4:20 this season as potential scorers in the 1500. Your predictions are fake news, you have clearly just lost terribly and don't know what to do with yourself. SAD!

Took the words out of my mouth. Kadrofske is majorly underrated in this one too. Either this guy hates St Olaf, or he goes to St. Olaf and is trying out some sort of smokescreen technique

He is Kadrofske. GET HIM!

*inhales*......BOY wrote:

Back it up. They'll need a ~7:42 to get 2nd this year.

Who's their top four? Lonergan-Ketola-Herman-Primozich. That's a ~7:46 if they FLY.

Out of UST, BET, and CAR, they'd have to drop two of them (by at least four seconds) before the anchor leg.

Sorry everyone. After last year’s 4x800m we can’t talk about this event anymore unless we have 4 teams under 7:45 again.

But, to be quick, Carleton returns all but one of from that 7:34 (!) team

And don’t discount those teams who only have a few 1:59 guys. Saint Jonhs only had Bugler who’s only gone 1:56 and three other 1:59 guys and they averaged 1:55 through the first three legs, handing it off tied with Carleton going into the anchor leg (RIP SJU anchor though..). Point I’m trying to make is that gamers show up at conference and run their best.

So, is everyone just waiting to see who's in?

Just like for Indoor, here are the current standings if we take the top 8 in each event and score them in the standard 10, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1

172 – St. Thomas

146 – Carleton

105 – St. John’s

86 – Hamline

80 – Bethel

75 – St. Olaf

58 – Gustavus

50 – Saint Mary’s

40 – Concordia

28 – Macalester

18 – Augsburg

This does not take into account any 4x800, which could really be big for those 3rd-7th place teams.

Any big recruits for next year?

Lol. Way to call that mutt out. Get mutt!

I've heard Concordia has some guys coming in. Lord help the MIAC if Carleton has a repeat year.

where are the em effing heat sheets?

clearly can't be trusted to make these decisions wrote:

where are the em effing heat sheets?

heat sheets won't be out till tomorrow, buckaroo

Heat sheets are on raceberryjam buckaroo

Come on guyyy wrote:

Heat sheets are on raceberryjam buckaroo

I realize that meet entries are on raceberry, but we won't find out heats for prelims (also known as heat sheets) until Wednesday