MIAC Track 2018

He wasn't at Hamline. No one was at Hamline. What meet are you referring to?

Meant that while he ran his time earlier in the outdoor season than those who ran similar times at Hamline’s Opener, the good weather might be worth about 2 weeks of training time.

You really think that someone who dug into Dammann’s pbs wasn’t aware that Wilkinson raced in California?

Let’s take a look at a small, unrepresentative sample wrote:

Meant that while he ran his time earlier in the outdoor season than those who ran similar times at Hamline’s Opener, the good weather might be worth about 2 weeks of training time.

You really think that someone who dug into Dammann’s pbs wasn’t aware that Wilkinson raced in California?

Ok cool, same page. I agree the Cali weather helps like 5-10 seconds probably.

I think Jake Brown is probably a far better comparison. Taking off 15 seconds this season seems pretty reasonably.

Peterson was a 10:30/4:45 guy in high school and Bugler was running pretty slow times in Japan if I remember correctly. Hindwood ran at some school in the middle of nowhere Wisconsin. Bottom line, those guys made the leap in college. It seems that guys coming from a strong 6aa program like Minnetonka are closer to their potential—which isn’t a knock on Wilkinson. He worked hard to become a 9:15 guy in high school, but to me it just means that those next 15 seconds might be harder to take off than some guy who didn’t run more than 5 days a week in high school and is responding well to a higher intensity training environment.

Small Sample Guy wrote:

I think Jake Brown is probably a far better comparison. Taking off 15 seconds this season seems pretty reasonably.

Peterson was a 10:30/4:45 guy in high school and Bugler was running pretty slow times in Japan if I remember correctly. Hindwood ran at some school in the middle of nowhere Wisconsin. Bottom line, those guys made the leap in college. It seems that guys coming from a strong 6aa program like Minnetonka are closer to their potential—which isn’t a knock on Wilkinson. He worked hard to become a 9:15 guy in high school, but to me it just means that those next 15 seconds might be harder to take off than some guy who didn’t run more than 5 days a week in high school and is responding well to a higher intensity training environment.

I mean, I don't think that's a rule. He also just happens to be immensely more talented than Hinwood or Peterson. I think it's ridiculous to make a hypothesis about a FRESHMAN's upside after they just won conference in 14:57 (Indoors!). Paul Escher's freshman season, for example, was pretty mediocre/normal, (considering his high school times) until he dropped 3:52 out of nowhere. He was a 4:19/9:24 guy (9:27 as a JR) in HS.

Another random stat:

2014 Season

4/19 Marcus Huderle 9:40.43 @ Carleton Relays

5/22 Marcus Huderle 9:09.16 @ Nationals Prelims (Holding back just to qualify)

Point is: Trajectory is really hard to guess, and I don't think the "6AA guy can't drop time b/c 6AA" argument is a legit one when having a chat about statistics, unless you can throw something empirical down supporting it.

Personally, I think he'll be a MIAC steeple champion this year, and will have a good shot at qualifying for natties. This is not based on Statistics; it's just an opinion/irrational belief.

Huderle is a bad example IMO. He fell off a cliff in Mid-February of that Year (assuming injured, anemic, sick, or plain shook?). Also a huge boom or bust guy in general.

1/25/14: 3000, 8:39

2/1/14: Mile, 4:20

2/8/14: 1000, 2:31

2/28/14: 1000, 2:41

3/6/14: Mile, 4:33 (11th); 3000, 8:58 (11th)

4/12/14: 1500, 4:16

4/19/14: 3000S, 9:40

He was also a senior that year who had run 9:23 as a Jr, 9:06 as a Soph, and 9:34 as a Frosh.

Honestly, he could just as easily be Jonah Barry (Madison West being a pretty similar program to that of the 6aa schools) as he could be Paul Escher. Assuming massive upside and a breakthrough seems less likely than a more moderate improvement. Could just about every guy that has run at the U out of 6aa be evidence? Or even the Minnetonka kid from across town? Regardless it doesn't seem like a leap to say from an exercise science perspective to say that more highly trained athletes are less likely to show tremendous improvement than their lesser trained counterparts, though that doesn't hold true in all circumstances.

In general I think people tend to look at a performances by first years and assume that tremendous improvement is likely to occur. My point more broadly is that training age, which you can't determine based on the runner's year in school will probably play a bigger factor.

The one thing that I do think Wilkinson has going for him is that he is stronger in the 8k and 5k than he is in the 3k and mile, but his relative weakness as a runner (footspeed) doesn't matter as much in the Steeple because he will be running roughly his 8k xc pace.

Wilkinson has wicked footspeed. Did you see how fast he finished the 3000 and 5000?

He ran like 2:04 in the 8. He was far more impressive going up in distance in cross than he was coming down in distance in the 800 and mile. It's a relative weakness. Not that he has weak footspeed compared to the rest of the joes in the conference.

Hey, division III here. We would like to see more talk on the division III thread, thx

These aren’t some ridiculous statistics

Sincerely, division III

are*

Division III wrote:

Hey, division III here. We would like to see more talk on the division III thread, thx

These aren’t some ridiculous statistics

Sincerely, division III

We don't feel the need to sh*ttalk preppy east coast d bags we won't see until May. MIAC performances speak for the MIAC, not St Olaf's JV team. See you in LAX you trust-fund, soccer-haircut headass dope fiends.

MIAC OR DIE-AC

The Huderle Paradox wrote:

Honestly, he could just as easily be Jonah Barry (Madison West being a pretty similar program to that of the 6aa schools) as he could be Paul Escher. Assuming massive upside and a breakthrough seems less likely than a more moderate improvement. Could just about every guy that has run at the U out of 6aa be evidence? Or even the Minnetonka kid from across town? Regardless it doesn't seem like a leap to say from an exercise science perspective to say that more highly trained athletes are less likely to show tremendous improvement than their lesser trained counterparts, though that doesn't hold true in all circumstances.

Jonah Barry's freshman year PR's were as follows:

4:05

8:53

15:23

27:01 (Griak, only Cross race of his freshman year)

The next year his PR's were:

2:32 (Top five time in the conference)

4:15 (3rd @ MIAC's behind Escher)

8:29 (2nd @ MIAC's behind Wintheiser)

14:50 (1st @ Mac beating Hornor & Meyer)

25:23 (7th @ MIAC's behind Campbell)

Those are pretty huge drops in time from freshman to sophomore year. I think it's safe to say his issues were with injuries/sickness and not that he plateau'd earlier than everyone else. Calvin Lehn's also an example of a kid with big upside who unfortunately spent most of his collegiate career injured.

I think Aldis Inde is another example of someone with injury problems, but who actually figured things out by his senior year.

Freshman year PR's were:

8:52

4:24

His senior year PR's were:

3:48

8:18

14:15

Wilkinson hasn't been injured, so I think that the plateau-ing argument is something that's dependent on a lot of totally random factors, most of which have the ability to affect 4:50 milers and 4:10 milers alike.

Jonah Barry was a stud in high school. He was totally dinged his entire first year and got back to that level during his sophomore season.

He ran 4:17 in the mile (WISCO Mile) and 9:20 for the 3200 (which is HOT time in Wisconsin because they take 24 to state), placed 22nd at Griak behind the underachieving Klecker brother, and was 47th at Footlocker Midwest when it was actually competitive.

Wilkinson dropped 8 seconds to run 9:30 yesterday....

*cough*OVERRAcing*cough*

Braaaaaaahp wrote:

*cough*OVERRAcing*cough*

yeah wait a second, did they take a break at all or are they just going to race a bunch this spring?

I don't see the benefit. Might as well race once then enjoy the weather in California.

JONAH was a STUD in HS wrote:

Jonah Barry was a stud in high school. He was totally dinged his entire first year and got back to that level during his sophomore season.

Escher beat Barry at State Cross in 2011, but Barry beat Escher at MIAC's in 2013.

What now, ATHEISTS?!??

Also, Wilkinson's gonna drop a 9:15-20 by the end of this season. I guarantee it.

TheDivineWord wrote:

JONAH was a STUD in HS wrote:

Jonah Barry was a stud in high school. He was totally dinged his entire first year and got back to that level during his sophomore season.

Escher beat Barry at State Cross in 2011, but Barry beat Escher at MIAC's in 2013.

What now, ATHEISTS?!??

Also, Wilkinson's gonna drop a 9:15-20 by the end of this season. I guarantee it.

Does someone have the picture of Escher throwing up the O as Barry snipes him at the line?