MIAC Track 2018

I heard Macalester spent the winter training in Colorado, trying out a new doping program. Chris Boranian is gonna do the distance heptathaon: 800 - 10k at conference, if the Miac Athletic Commisoiner puts it back on.

The power of Christ compels you wrote:

I will eat an entire bethel jersey and live stream it if Klamm doesn’t win the 600 by 1 full second. JCG jr for 2nd and Supinski 3rd.

I waited until after natties predictions/natties to say that you did the worst.

Outdoor conference is weeks away.

800:

1. DCG

2. Krogman

3. Hatton

4. Ebner

5. JCG

4 nationals qualifiers. Top 5 all 1:52 or under.

1500:

1. DCG

2. Mueller

3. Wachter

4. Boranian

5. Anderson

Top 3 better than everyone else.

5000:

1. Mueller

2. Jama

3. Wilkinson

4. Ketola

5. Burgstahler

Battle of the freshmen up front. Seniors do their best to keep up.

10000:

1. Mueller

2. Wilkinson

3. Dodge

4. Meikle

5. Stumbo

Lerdall will try to push the pace again but it wont work. Similar to the indoor 5k.

Steeple:

1. Rosenau

2. O'Hare

3. Burgstahler

4. Stumbo

5. Benitez

Stumbo will be the GOAT next year but this is Rosenau's race to lose. Burgstahler makes an appearance for the first time in 2 years.

No Koslowski in the 800? Pretty well deserved place after indoors I would say

800

1. Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

2. Nolan Ebner, Macalester

3. Evan Hatton, Bethel

4. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

5. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

6. Sam Jewson, Hamline

7. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

8. David Huffman, Bethel

1500

1. Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

2. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

3. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

4. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

5. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

6. Sean Lonergan, St. Olaf

7. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

8. Chris Boranian, Macalester

Steeple

1. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

2. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

3. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

4. Eric Bakken, St. Olaf

5. James Mathison, St. John’s

6. Dan Buchmeier, St. Olaf

7. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

8. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

5k

1. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

2. Liban Jama, St. Olaf

3. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

4. Tris Dodge, Carleton

5. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

6. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

7. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

8. Elliot Kadrofske, St. Olaf

10k

1. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

2. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

3. Tris Dodge, Carleton

4. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

5. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

6. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

7. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

8. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

Pre-dictor wrote:

1500:

1. DCG

2. Mueller

3. Wachter

4. Boranian

5. Anderson

Top 3 better than everyone else.

This is a joke, right? Ketola had the second fastest mile in the MIAC. He should be at least 3rd on this list- I can see it going either way between him and Mueller. Based on indoor, he is going to be a 1500 guy this year. He only ran one 3k, and even though he has a distance background he has shown to be formidable in the mile. Watch for Ketola to continue the line of great Olaf 1500 runners.

Wonder if this guy has a super inside scoop. Saw what looked to be Ketola getting looked at on a training table during the ncaa stream when they were showing Richards getting a cup of water post Mile, they weren't showing what was happening on the track per usual.

Like Ebner for 2nd, assuming DCG runs the 800. He looked like trash at the start of his abbreviated indoor season (assuming he was dinged or they were just slow-walking him to the outdoor season?) but dropped a lot of time pretty quickly. Seemed like he just ran out of time.

800:

1. Donson

2. Hatton

3. Krogman

4. Kozlowski

5. Ebner

6. Joey

7. Jewson

8. Madigan

1500:

1. Donson

2. Ketola

3. Watcher

4. Lamb

5. Sandberg

6. Lelinga

7. Boranian

8. Anderson

Steeple:

1. O'Hare

2. Burgstahler

3. Wilkinson

4. Rosenau

5. Stumbo

6. Nakajima

7. Bakken

8. Allen

5000:

1. Mueller

2. Jama

3. Meikle

4. Lerdall

5. Kadrofske

6. Mathison

7. Kerbeshian

8. Henschel

10000:

1. Mueller

2. Wilkinson

3. Collins

4. Dodge

5. Meikle

6. Fritz

7. Stumbo

8. Gilbertson

Sokolowski

Ok o slow ski

Ook slow ski

Slow sikko

The Boldness wrote:

5000:

1. Mueller

2. Jama

3. Meikle

4. Lerdall

5. Kadrofske

6. Mathison

7. Kerbeshian

8. Henschel

Henschel back from the dead? Bold but I like it.

hopefully he'll be back, rather than joining the sad squad with Ellenberger

weight squad wrote:

hopefully he'll be back, rather than joining the sad squad with Ellenberger

Are we just sh*tting on people now? That's not cool.

it's been done many times before. doesn't make it right but what goes around comes around and eventually it will catch up to you or your team

seen him on the training table wrote:

Wonder if this guy has a super inside scoop. Saw what looked to be Ketola getting looked at on a training table during the ncaa stream when they were showing Richards getting a cup of water post Mile, they weren't showing what was happening on the track per usual.

Like Ebner for 2nd, assuming DCG runs the 800. He looked like trash at the start of his abbreviated indoor season (assuming he was dinged or they were just slow-walking him to the outdoor season?) but dropped a lot of time pretty quickly. Seemed like he just ran out of time.

Nah he was just getting band-aids after falling with 500 to go in the final.

DCG opens with a 3:53.82/1:52.92 double

Mueller wins the slower section in 4:03.93

Wilkinson with a 9:38.63/15:20.55 Steeple/5k double

Solid results for DCG, though they suggest, as did his results indoor, that he a bit behind where he was at this point last year.

Bit slower than I expected from Mueller though I suppose he is coming off 3 straight weeks of hard racing (MIAC Madness/Qualifier/Nationals). Interested to see if he can snag a qualifier outdoor. The 3k seems to be his relative sweet spot, but his 1k suggests that he might be able to run well enough to get into the 1500. I think he is a year away from running well in the 5k.

The early season steeple/5k double has me scratching my head a bit. Might be a good point in the year to figure out how you respond to the two races the same day before attempting it at conference....?

About a 4:22 mile converted, must be the old dogs tired out.

WHAT. Let's please not overlook the double Wilkinson had. But I'm more particularly interested in his steeple openner. 9:38 is no joke and this likely makes him the favorite to win conference. Most athletes drop a substantial amount of time in the steeple between their first one and the last by conference. He could be in the 9:20's

O'Hare, JR, who ran 9:40 as a soph

Season Debut: 9:39.04 (4/8) MIAC: 9:29.44 (also a SB)

Rosenau, SO who run 9:51 as a frosh

Season Debut: 9:40.77 (4/1); MIAC: 9:33.90; PB: 9:31.75 (5/18)

Dammann, SR who ran 9:41 as a jr

Season Debut: 9:51.93 (4/15); MIAC: 9:42.81; PB 9:38.96 (5/3)

Hindwood, SR who ran 9:48 as a soph

Season Debut: 9:38.48 (4/1); MIAC: 9:43.19; PB 9:19.41 (5/18)

Not sure I would go so far as to say 20 seconds is the norm. Given that he is a first year and it is EARLY in the outdoor season (though running a hot opener in the wind and cold at Hamline is fairly impressive) it wouldn't be incredibly surprising. I feel the more common thing is to run your previous PB, or faster, in your opener the next year.

Also, is it really all that incredible that the indoor 5k champ would be capable of running a time that would suggest that he could contend for a title in the steeplechase?

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant this in regards to first time steeplers in their debut race then comparing it to their best time later that same season. I'll use the names you provided as examples.

O'Hare his freshman year

Debut/First Time: 10:40.81

Best time for that same season: 10:00.05

MIAC: Did not qualify

Time difference between first and best: 40.76 seconds

Rosenau his freshman year

Debut/First Time: 9:57.88

Best Time for that same season: 9:51.00

MIAC: 9:51.00 for 8th

Time difference between first and best: 6.88 seconds

Carston Dammann his freshman year

Debut/First Time: 10:32.54

Best Time for that same season: 10:15.58

MIAC: 10:31.90 for 18th - *We can all agree this was a poor race

Time difference between first and best: 16.96 seconds

Lachlan Hinwood his Sophomore year

Debut/First Time: 10:18.52

Best Time for that same season: 9:48.62

MIAC: 10:10.28 for 14th... also not great showing here

Time difference between first and best: 29.9 seconds

For historical comparisons, here are the last few great MIAC steeplers and their same progression their first seasons.

Ryan Bugler (SJU '17) his freshman year

Debut/First Time: 10:09.44

Best Time for that same season: 9:45.98

MIAC: 9:45.98 for 5th

Time difference between first and best: 33.46 seconds

Best time by graduation: 9:04.84 - national champion and all American

Jake Brown (Olaf '15) his junior year *transferred to Saint Olaf and only ran steeple 7(!!) times in college including prelims

Debut/First Time: 9:44.07

Best Time for that same season: 9:09.49

MIAC: 9:09.49 for 1st *Ran steeple twice this season, qualified for nationals, didn't even go

Time difference between first and best: 34.58 seconds

Best time by graduation: 9:01.43 - 3rd place against one of the most top-heavy steeple fields in a decade at nationals

Marcus Hudurle (Carleton '14) his freshman year

Debut/First Time:9:58.19

Best Time for that same season: 9:34.24

MIAC: 9:41.59 for 5th

Time difference between first and best: 23.95 seconds

Best time by graduation: 9:06.87 - made finals at nationals multiple times

Ryan Peterson (Halmine '16) his junior year

Debut/First Time: 9:34.71

Best Time for that same season: 9:25.05

MIAC: 9:58.99 for 8th *If anyone remembers that race, it was rough for him

Time difference between first and best: 9.66 seconds

Best time by graduation: 9:10.43 - last person out to not qualify for nationals in one of the fastest year of qualifying in the last few decades

Average time improvement for all of the names listed above in first season of steepling from first race to the end of that same season: 24.53 seconds - give or take a tenth of a second.

Average time for mortals (names you listed at the top): 23.63 seconds

So, while there are outliers, the average improvement rate for MIAC runners largely remains the same at about 23-24 seconds for steeplechasers in their very first season of doing the event from their first to last race of that same season. It would be much more difficult to map out all 4 years of progression, of course... Also keep in mind that this is a small sample size.

Things to note:

Small sample size

Outliers abound (Jake Brown I'm looking at you)

The average MIAC finish for mortals in their first seasons is - 13th or so (not including Austin who didn't race it)

The average MIAC finish for esteemed alumni in their first seasons - 4 -5th

Average MIAC finish all together - 8 -9th (not including Austin)

SO, you're right. It was a bit of a jump, based on these numbers, to say that he is the favorite to win MIAC this year in the steeple. BUT, his debut steeple is the fastest out of everyone listed here excluding Ryan Peterson who ran it as a junior. That has to mean something.

I'm sticking with my prediction of 9:20's for Wilkinson.