Main Questions are at bottom. Read more if that info helps:
So I've had a disappointing season so far. I came in thinking I would be able to get under 16:30- previous PRs 17:55/4:50/2:10 off 30 (5k) and 25(mile/800) mpw with little base for both. This summer I worked up above 50 mpw and averaged over 40, higher than ever, with some tempos hills and fartleks, and was in significantly better shape than ever at the start of the season.
Cue some terrible race times: 18:00 (first race, fast course),
18:45 (hilly, close to tough workout),
19:30 (Almost certainly long, instructed to start slow to take insignificant race easy),
19:20 ( home course- Know it was long by .15, 80 degrees),
18:50 (same home course, 85 degrees, mentally better),
17:40 (cool day, big race, spike knocked off in first 200, pulled the other one off and kept going- some gravel, forded stream twice, some hills- tougher than state course),
18:20(hilly, hot again, winner was 80 seconds off PR),
19:05(Hilly course, hot, worn out- 7th race in 2.5 wks,
18:25(start of a cold, uphill last mile, good first 2mi though),
18:00 (Same course as 2nd race (18:45) earlier, mid-end of cold)
I've had some (I thought) better workouts:
8x800 w/ 2:20 jog rest- avg. 2:48, last one 2:38, gravel trail
2x(400, 800, 800, 400) w/ 1min rest between reps, 3min between sets 800 avg.: 2:46, 400 avg.:76, track, hot
1mi in 5:49, 1/4mi jog (2:00), 4x200 w/ 30 sec (36),1/4 mi jog (2:30) 1mi in 5:28, 1/4mi jog (2:30), 4x200 w/ 30 sec (33), track, not all out but run about 20 seconds faster for the miles than last year right before 17:55.
OK so: is it possible that my times can be explained by conditions and I could come close to 17:00 next week at my state qualifying race (assuming things are somewhat better)? I'm in a very tight position to get a qualifying spot for states as an individual; I think I have more to give to my races, how do I run myself until I'm absolutely spent at the line? a) How to get past pain mentally b) Strategies to run at a smart, maximal effort when I'm not totally sure of the fastest time I can run.