Can I run marathon under 2:40 by May 6 2018?

Can you? yes

Will you? no

I will be the first to call BS

All the stuff you provided is pretty irrelevant.

I will tell you what you need to do, and the thread will be ended.

Here are race times, in similar conditions to your goal race, what one needs to be able to race, in order to go sub-2:40 in a goal marathon:

......sub-1:16 for the half;

......sub-34 for the 10k.

The above times should be able to be achieved subsequent to a 2-3 day taper from your regular high mileage training.

0/10

Seems to me that this is a pretty reasonable goal. That isn't a 10k time that suggests a sub 2:40, but races in the middle of a heavy training cycle don't always serve as the best indicator of fitness any way.

I agree that a steady diet of mileage is a good starting point, but don't ignore the shorter distances. I would continue to work on the 5k/10k distances for a few months before turning your attention back to the marathon. It will keep you from burning out, it will keep you motivated, and it will improve your overall fitness and thus bring your tempo pace down for when you jump back into your Daniels marathon training plan.

Thankyou, I will strive for those times in upcoming races.

Lots of negative responses here.

I think it is possible you can drop 5 minutes, maybe in May or maybe at a fall mararthon. That high mileage has a cumulative effect and you are very new to running so still room for big improvements.

Keep doing what you are doing. The big question for me is if can you handle the mileage or will you get injured.

Good luck and keep us updated.

Shavas wrote:

I just did my first marathon on a hilly course in 2:44:32.

Lol the obligatory "on a hilly course" whenever someone posts a time.

Thanks for the encouragement, greatly appreciated! I was doing 60-70mile / week up until 3 or 4 months ago when I decided to start doing double runs on most days. I thought that was as much as i could run without getting injured but I ran faster on my easier runs and harder on my workouts back then. Now I do my easy runs very slow, like 8min mile or slower even and don't try to kill myself at workouts. Actually everything feels better now that I'm running higher mileage and my speed endurance seems to have gone well beyond its previous level in a short time. So no signs of suffering from higher mileage yet but monitoring everything closely.

Shavas-- First, you're running great for mid-40s! Very impressive, and it must be gratifying for you. Smoove and others have given great advice. I will add my confidence that sub-2:40 is doable by May. I would suggest, though, that you choose a marathon that's not TOO much of a net downhill course. At least not more downhill than Boston; after this much training and effort, you'll want an honest PR.

By the way, my own progression was 2:47 (warm day, hilly loop), 2:45 (flat point-to-point and 25 mph headwind), 2:40 (hilly point-to-point with slight elevation loss - less than Boston). All three were autumn 1982. Dunno how much was actual "improvement" versus more favorable conditions. Hopefully you will enjoy both!

Happy training, and best wishes.

Allen1959 that is an incredible progression of marathon finishing times in such a short time span! Three marathons in one autumn must have been exhausting! The May marathon I am shooting for definitely does not have the net downhill of Boston but does have an interesting elevation profile. I'm not sure how it would compare as far as being a fast or slow course as compared to Boston. I think one could definitely get in trouble going out too fast over the first several km of net downhill. Here is the elevation profile for anyone who is interested in looking and commenting on: https://www.miss604.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/VanMarathon-Route2016-Large.jpg

Interesting course.

First off, it is going to be a freaking gorgeous run.

Second, that climb at 10k or so comes at a pretty good place. Warmed up, but not yet fatigued. The rollers on the back end will be he most interesting, especially that late bigger one. Lots of folks like some rollers over pure flats because the changes in elevation result in changes in the emphasis on leg muscle groups being used. Part of why Granma's is so popular.

Finally, I'm jealous.

Yes it is beautiful course for sure and Forbes even rates it as a top 12 marathon course worth traveling for! I am fairly familiar with the second half of the course, having done some half marathons that cover the same route. Lots of rollers but manageable and last km adds a good burn with a slight uphill. I like your analysis of the hill at the 9k, warmed up but not yet fatigued. I think coming off that without burning too much energy will be key for setting up the rest of the race.

Just a quick update on my progress in goal to go sub 2:40 in May... Had a bad case of the flu that took me out for 3 weeks in Dec/Jan but got back to training and did 1:16:53 in a half on Sunday. Was a nice controlled even effort, negative split and was strong at the finish. Stuck to my goal pace of 3:38 and didn't get greedy to go faster and risk blowing up as this was a 3min PB from my last half marathon last spring. And two weeks ago did a 10k in 34:53. Was a negative split and finished strong at the finish. Mileage has been 70-85 MPW and following a Daniel's runsmart plan. So looking to do a few more races, mostly 5k - 10k and keep training consistent and hoping to avoid injuries or any setback.

shavas wrote:

Just a quick update on my progress in goal to go sub 2:40 in May... Had a bad case of the flu that took me out for 3 weeks in Dec/Jan but got back to training and did 1:16:53 in a half on Sunday. Was a nice controlled even effort, negative split and was strong at the finish. Stuck to my goal pace of 3:38 and didn't get greedy to go faster and risk blowing up as this was a 3min PB from my last half marathon last spring. And two weeks ago did a 10k in 34:53. Was a negative split and finished strong at the finish. Mileage has been 70-85 MPW and following a Daniel's runsmart plan. So looking to do a few more races, mostly 5k - 10k and keep training consistent and hoping to avoid injuries or any setback.

Doesn't seem like you've improved since October. Hopefully you can get that 10k down to 34:00ish and then you'll be in the ballpark of 2:40. For 5k it depends on your speed but hopefully low 16s.

Lot's of work left to do in 3 months to get under 2:40 I agree! Recovery from the marathon in Oct. took several weeks to feel strong again and the flu in Dec set me back to barely being able to run 3:37/k pace for 3k. I feel my recent races were conservative efforts as I wasn't really sure where my fitness was. Maybe could have trimmed an easy 20s off the 10k and probably a good 40s off the half with a little faster pacing.

I don't have much to contribute to help, but congrats on your First Half PR!

I've done the Vancouver Marathon 4 times before (this year will be 5) and yes that Camosun Hill is challenging but it's so early in the race it's not really that bad. The Burrard Bridge at km 30 always hurts much worse, but at least you know after that you get 12km flat, so it's easy to mentally tough that one out.

Anyways good luck! Only 81 days to go!

Haha yeah I've tested out that Camosun hill a couple times and its a doozy! At least like you say it's early on like you say, trick will be not too much into threshold level going up. Good luck in the rest of training leading up to it!