Official 2017 Philly Half Discussion Thread - Rupp and Hasay get ready for Chicago

mindweak wrote:

exactly...no way he runs 2:06 or 2:05....if he was going to do that he should have run 59.

for all of you on here who suck down everything Retardo Canova says, then how can you say rupp running "pace" for a half is going to help him out? now he needed to go hard, f*ck 3 weeks to recover? and he goes and does a "training through tune up" bullsh*t....no my guess is he was running about 90-93% effort and he will run a 2:07 high at best but more likely a 2:09 low

but yeah he was running "chill" at 62 pace so that means he is going to run 2:05? riiiiiiiigggght

What are your coaching credentials?

TrackCoach wrote:

mindweak wrote:

exactly...no way he runs 2:06 or 2:05....if he was going to do that he should have run 59.

for all of you on here who suck down everything Retardo Canova says, then how can you say rupp running "pace" for a half is going to help him out? now he needed to go hard, f*ck 3 weeks to recover? and he goes and does a "training through tune up" bullsh*t....no my guess is he was running about 90-93% effort and he will run a 2:07 high at best but more likely a 2:09 low

but yeah he was running "chill" at 62 pace so that means he is going to run 2:05? riiiiiiiigggght

2:05 might be a stretch, but 2:06 seems about on point. A 1:02 half with HH is about equal to 1:00. In my mind, Rupp has already proved he's capable of a 2:06 thon.

Having his excellent track pedigree which includes a 26:44 PB in the 10k, there isn't a doubt in my mind Rupp is well capable of running 59low to even dipping under 59 min for the half marathon. He clearly took today easy and I wouldn't say high humidity means the time was more than 2 min faster in perfect weather; somewhere around a minute faster at best I think. If Rupp is in the shape of his life right now, I would believe 2:05 or sub-2:05 is possible for him. If you don't think so, look at how Dathan Ritzenhein has done in his career. Ritz has run almost equal to Rupp in the 5k...but over half a minute slower in the 10k. His PB for the marathon is an exceptional 2:07 for the distance. Would you think Rupp can only do a minute faster or is 2+ minutes much more in the range of Rupp?

His excellent track pedigree?

You guys kill me. That means nothing ,and does not translate into being great on the road. I just don't think he has the ability to go lower than 2:07. HE is not as talented at as Ryan Hall to me, and ryan wasn't great on the track.

Hall paced(boston) elite africans, and could really push it. HE ran 2:08, 2:06, and 2:04. He is the fastest american at the marathon( not record eligible) and half marathon( american record). Rupp just does not have that quick turnover or efficiency to run fast for a LONG period of time when it comes to the half marathon and marathon. Something is missing to me.

I think Rupp is a decent runner, but is he talented enough to run 2:04 or even 2:06? I don't see it.

The half marathons that he has run this year just seem very underwhelming. You know, east africans don't run easy half marathons before a marathon. They run FAST half marathons before a marathon to put their body in the state of running fast for the marathon. Look at what Mary Keitany runs in her half marathons before a marathon ( at RAK, she was trying to break her own half marathon record before london! ) , or look at what Bedan and Feyisa run in the half before doing a marathon. They go all out.

Maybe he will prove me wrong at the Chicago Marathon, and show me something that I have never seen from him. One thing that will be in his favor: There will be no pacers, so he will not have to worry about keeping up with a suicide pace.

Rupp's New Haven and Philly tune-ups appear to be just that -- tune-ups.

In both races, he bided his time and then took off at about the halfway mark and ran big negative splits.

and when he runs 2:08 there will be excuses....no his 62 was at prob 95% effort which would be 2:05 if he was hardcore but he will go out in 64 and not run negative.

whats my coaching credentials? well besides Retardo Canova who on here is an actual coach?

talk sh*t to me, i have lived track and field since i was a little kid, i dont make up fantasy mythical times like vent, i actually ran and competed. i was on teams with fast runners, from 10.12 in the 100 to 28:02 10k.

no way rupp runs 2:06, he runs too conservatively and he is off the juice, so he is back to being the guy who couldnt break 4 in the mile and is a 28 low at best 10k guy now. and a 28 low 10k guy has a hard time breaking 2:09, ask meb

I don't understand the reasoning behind you saying he is a "28-low at best guy now"

At that fairly hilly 20k two weeks ago he ran the second 10k in 28:24. And this was 5 weeks out from his goal marathon, so I would say he was probably coming in fatigued in the midst of high volume marathon training. I think he can clearly run much faster than 28-low

and stop claiming his 26:44 as if he just did that. that was YEARS ago, heavy on the NOP sauce, and now he is a 28 low guy, and 28 low guys run 2:08-12 range depending on the course. rupp ran slower in boston than meb did, meb is old and was thought to be washed up, so how the hell did mr 26:44 run slower? cause he isnt a 26:44 guy any more.

its like people claiming bolt is a 9.58 guy no matter what, and then he struggles to run 9.95 at the end.

then the excuses will be "but but but he hasnt done any speed work", but here is the reality, rupp isnt as talented as hall and ritz. the difference is a number of things. rupp has been on the NOP sauce since hs, androgel rub downs and happy endings since hs. they took a kid that was top tier hs runner potential and juiced him to the max and had him on a strict program, unable to break 4 in the mile and dropped him down to 3:50 INDOORS, a kid who would "kick a 60" and now he started dropping 52s, and then go and do a brutal hard workout afterwards.

26:44...like come on, that is so blatant, rupp wasnt ever supposed to run that fast, he is at best a 28 low guy, nothing wrong with that, very competitive for NCAA, but 28 low only gets you 2:08-12, and talk sh*t but what are rupps marathon times so far?

"but but but it was tactical" riiiight then why didnt he win the f*cking races? since he has 3:50 indoor speed, 53 kick and a 26:44 under his belt?

"but but but he is still learning how to run it"

stop it, just stop, realize rupp is a 28 low guy natural and 28 low guys cant run 2:06s.

again with the excuses. why is it you people claim "he was doing a tune up, he was training through" blah blah blah...no he ran 28:24 and was pushing, he just cant go any faster.

im saying he is a 28 low guy at best because when you use his marathon times and compare them to other guys who ran similar times at boston you notice that 95% of them run 28 lows, how fast do you think meb was at a 10k when he ran 2:08 at boston? you really think it was 26:40's? i mean he ran a minute faster that ruppy pooh did?

just answer me this.

when rupp runs a 2:08 like im saying, what will your excuse be?

if by some miracle he runs 2:06 i will be very shocked. but i dont think that will happen

im thinking he will run 2:07 high at best to 2:09 low, for a 5th-9th place, and be the top american and people will praise him for "competing" and make excuses why he didnt get a 2:06, which would have only gotten him 3rd or 4th.

i like this running predictor

i punched in 120 miles a week

28:24 10k

difficult course

and guess what it spit back out?

Your estimated time (Slate): 02:12:07

Your estimated time (Runner's World): 02:10:39

why not get ol vent to use his mythical calculator and punch in low 28 10k and see what it gives for a marathon, i would guess 2:09/10

classic i punched in his 62 half, and this is what it spit back out hahaha

Your estimated time (Slate): 02:15:09

Your estimated time (Runner's World): 02:09:53

hmmm 2:09:53, what is rupps best time? lols

expect great things rupp lovers

You're out of control. "You people"... haha

I didn't make any excuses for him. (Are you really arguing that 5 weeks out he wasn't in the heart of his marathon training?) I'm not even a fan of his. It's just clear that you're either trolling or very wrong about this.

Even if we were to assume that he was fully tapered and peaking for the 20k (which he clearly wasn't), the 28:24 second half converts to faster than 28-low in a 10k race.

here is another one i plugged and chugged

https://www.runnersworld.com/tools/race-time-predictor

at 120 miles a week it predicts

"Your predicted marathon time is 2:07:21", very generous i think

but when i punch in 110

"Your predicted marathon time is 2:08:36"

then punch in 100

"Your predicted marathon time is 2:09:52"

im not trolling, your just mad that i use logic and reason and you and others jizz all in your pants claiming rupp will run a 2:04 to 2:06

let me ask you this slow-twitch, what has rupp done RECENTLY that gives any indication that he will run your magical time?

i will say it againe 2:07 high at best to 2:09 low, sorry thats the reality.

2:07 if he gets dragged, 2:09 if its more tactical. he is a 28 low guy at best these days, thats life, thats the reality, he is off the sauce and thats the best he can run....and as you can see with centro he is off the sauce as well and now he is a 3:35 guy at best, lols

here is another one

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/marathon-calculator/

punched in 120 miles a week, and his times for the half and 10k

guess what it spit back out?

wait for it...........

2:08:58

dont believe me? try it yourself

i can't reason with someone who can't reason. The data you're punching into the running calculator is flawed... Did you seriously punch in the second half of his 20k as his 10k time? You might note that I didn't make any predictions as to his marathon time (I totally agree it could be tactical) and I didn't say he's anywhere close to peak 10k shape. All I'm saying is that it's clear to anyone with a basic knowledge of running conversions that your "low 28 at best" 10k assessment is inaccurate.

well then blow-twitch, what are you saying? you are saying im wrong, and arguing like a 13yr old who just figured out what being a liberal is all about.

show me where you say im wrong. you havent, you just say insults and tell me im wrong.

starting in 2015 with the NOP/salazar getting big time heat, rupps kick was gone, and his decline into being a 28 low guy was beginning.

2:11:13 marathon, excuses "it was hot, it was tactical".....it was slow, and showed that he was a 28 guy at best then, proven as well with his 27:55 10k olympic trials win

then a 2:10:05 olympic run, thats still SLOW, and dont even try to say he placed legit bronze. how many kenyans and ethiopians would have beat ruppy if they allowed more than 3 per team? "eh eh eh it was hot and tactical" well if your boy was a 2:06 guy then a 2:10 tactical affair, he should have won it easily, but he was MAXED out for a nice watered down 3rd place run.

On April 1, 2017, Rupp finished 11th in the Prague half marathon, finishing in 1:01:59. not much better than his 62:18.....and everyone said he was training through and tempo run and tun up etc etc.....no it only showed he was going to run like he had before 2:09-10, and boom 2 weeks later? 2:09:58 for 2nd.

what why didnt he win if he is a 2:06 bad boy with 26:44 wheels? cause he isnt a 2:06 guy, he isnt a 26:44 guy, he is a 28 low guy. i have shown you over and over that he is a 28 low guy, and all you say is i am wrong. show me how i am wrong or shut up. you havent said what you think he will run but you dont agree with my assessment. so what do you think he will run then? and what has rupp done since 2015 that shows that he will run the time you are predicting?

All you have done here is demonstrate that you don't know the difference in 5K/10K training and marathon training, and the difference in racing and time trialing. Kipchoge is clearly a 2:02-2:03 guy, so why did he run 2:08 in Rio? Oh ya, it was a CHAMPIONSHIP RACE WITHOUT PACERS in hot, humid conditions.......

you are an idiot, he ran 2:08 cause thats all he had to do to WIN....sh*t your a moron. rupp was running as hard as he could for BRONZE, yes thats right 3rd place in a WATERED DOWN RACE.

what was rupps time in rio? oh thats right 2:10:05 MAXED out, where kipchoge ran a comfortable 2:08 faster than rupps PR...you honestly think kipchoge was going all out? yeah ok man your a f*cking idiot.

now tell me how all ive done is demonstrate 5k/10k training vs marathon training? that doesnt even make sense, again your an idiot. what i have done is show that there is a strong coorelation between running 28 low for 10k and being maxed out at the marathon at 2:07 high to 2:09. and so far no one on here has told me how im wrong, or what rupp has done RECENTLY that shows he will run 2:06.

1st, gold medalist(s) Eliud Kipchoge Kenya 2:08:44

2nd, silver medalist(s) Feyisa Lilesa Ethiopia 2:09:54

3rd, bronze medalist(s) Galen Rupp United States 2:10:05 PB

you see that? or are you to f*cking dumb to see the results. you think kipchoge was going 110%? he won by over a minute, you think he was hurting? no he ran as easy as possible to get the win, while Lilesa was MAXED out and rupp was doing the best he could with his 28 low 10k speed and no more 53 second last 400m kick.

kipchoge had a 5 min comfort, he can do 2:03s, and he new he could easily go 2:08-09 pace and drop the last 1k and pull away. you think he was scared of big badboy 2:11 gaylen rup? please, kipchoge knew he had the win before he ever showed up

mindweak wrote:

1st, gold medalist(s) Eliud Kipchoge Kenya 2:08:44

2nd, silver medalist(s) Feyisa Lilesa Ethiopia 2:09:54

3rd, bronze medalist(s) Galen Rupp United States 2:10:05 PB

you see that? or are you to f*cking dumb to see the results. you think kipchoge was going 110%? he won by over a minute, you think he was hurting? no he ran as easy as possible to get the win, while Lilesa was MAXED out

Well you were right about one thing: Lilesa was maxed out. His PR under good conditions: 2:04

Rupp was in 2:05 shape in Rio. Accept the reality.