Marathon Predictor (Sub 3)

The exact pace you should shoot for to run a sub 3 marathon is 6:51.

Pinson12 wrote:

Anyone good ways to guess an exact pace to shoot for?

If you want to run a sub 3 marathon, you need to run 6:51 miles. So I would shoot for 6:48 or so to build up a cushion of a minute at the end.

6:51 pace will not get you a sub 3 on most courses and especially if you are counting on your gps.

This advice will leave you sorely disappointed.

If you're running 14 miles @ 6:48 on the marathon course with 9 weeks to go I'd say you are good to go.

The easiest thing to do would be to see if they have a 3 hour pace group.

I've only run 1 marathon. Probably a little less training than you. But my splits were something like 1:28:30 / 1:30:30 for 2:59:00 ish.

Thanks for the response. Do you think it would be bad to try and hold 6:45's?

That's what I'm thinking man, trying to hit the halfway mark in 1:28:30. I am trying to figure out what my last longer hard workout should be for when I get 3 weeks out. I have a half on Oct 21 or I could do a more flat half that's more similar to my marathon course, but the only problem is that it's November 4th (2 weeks out). I'm trying to figure out which would be more beneficial?

I am on the same boat, trying to go sub 3 on Oct 1st. Have been able to do long runs with 5-10 in between at 6:40-6:45 so I think going out the first half in 1:28:30 should be confortable and give me a decent cushion for the last miles.

I ran 1:24:20 in a hilly half about a month ago (ran 1:22:40 in a flat half in March), so I like my chances.

Pinson12 wrote:

Anyone good ways to guess an exact pace to shoot for? Been averaging 50 to 60 miles a week since April. Did a workout last Sunday of 14 Miles @ 6:48 pace and didn't have any issues. I did this run without tapering, I had 47 miles going into the workout. I wanted to do it on tired legs, it surprisingly went well. I don't want to go out to hard or to slow, trying to find the best most realistic pace to try and stick to. My marathon is in 65 days (I did this workout on the marathon course I will be running) Any help or tips would be greatly appreciated. I'm going to do a half marathon on October 21st. I'm currently estimating I'm in 1:22 to 1:24 half marathon shape.

Coincidentally, prior to my most recent sub-3 marathon, I also ran 14 miles of the actual marathon course. I averaged 7:02 per mile. It was five weeks before the marathon, and one of my strongest training runs.

On race day, my first mile was 6:46, and I averaged about 6:43 for 2:56:03. A small marathon, so self-paced. Since then I have run marathons with pace groups, which really helps, but still important to keep an eye on the splits.

My vote is to settle in at 6:45 per mile from the start.

Like you, I ran the 14-miler on tired legs -- the four days prior included a 5 x 1000m workout @ 3:26 and a 23-mile long run @ 8:30/mi. I had been logging about 45 miles per week. Half marathon two weeks later was 1:22:47 including a "nature stop," so just about where you estimate to be.

Best wishes.

CLRunner wrote:

I ran 1:24:20 in a hilly half about a month ago (ran 1:22:40 in a flat half in March), so I like my chances.

I like your chances, too. In the marathon I mention in my above post, I actually hit the half at 1:28:30, so I completely agree with your thinking. I see our HM times correlate, as well.

I am jealous of your goals for October 1. I am also racing that day, and earlier in the year had some hope of running sub-3 one last time. But I have been hobbling on injuries since April. Still logging 40-mile weeks, and a few long runs -- but not much quality.

Enjoy your taper, and good luck!

Thanks for the response. That's going to be my pace strategy. I just need to figure out how far out I need to do the half marathon.

I jumped into Half Marathon training in early spring 2016. Years of base running (3-5 milers), lots of basketball, strength training, and ran sprints in hs. I never did a long run past a 10k until March 2016, and in those 18 months, I can absolutely feel a difference. I ran my first 5k in June 2013, and out of my 12 5ks since, I've always went sub 7 minute. Only cracked 19:37 for a PR, but where I live very few routes are ever flat, so I am interested to see on a flatter course what I could clock. I've been between 25-35 miles on a consistent basis for most of 2017. By 2020 realistically, as long as I can stay healthy, I am hoping to work up to a block of 50-60 mile weeks and crack sub 3. My spring 2018 HM will be a good indicator of my debut 26.2 next September.

giver of bad advice wrote:

6:51 pace will not get you a sub 3 on most courses and especially if you are counting on your gps.

This advice will leave you sorely disappointed.

False. A 6:51 pace will get you a sub 3 on all courses. By definition. The only exception would be a course that is more than 26.2 miles.

Just to offer a contrasting point of view - I just cracked 3hrs a couple of years ago, with a slight falter in the 2nd half.

Last year (with the pressure off having already done

Cont: under 3hrs) I started off with a very relaxed pace, and smashed the 2nd half! Ran 10 mins faster than the year before!

Ran no more than 160 miles per month in the race month and the preceding month on both occasions, so given build up was the same, I'd say although psychological it's hard to go slow (and potentially worry about not building a cushion) you can make yourself a lot stonger for the 2nd half by conserving as much as possible.

3 weeks out...

Do a 20 miler.

10 @ usual LR Pace +

10 @ MP or just slightly under

The goal is to finish mile 20 and feel like you can keep rolling.

It is a damn tough workout.

I immediately go into recovery and taper mode (pretty subtle that 1st week) after that guy.

Admittedly, the above single workout isn't magic - but the icing on the cake of 15 weeks of long tempos @ MP week after week after week...

good luck running the tangents ahole

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