what is this drivel? wrote:
So far today wrote:That research 'proves' Mimi ran faster than Sandy even though the 5-mile splits prove she did not.
Show us.
Thank you for proving you are only trolling this thread. You certainly have not been following along.
SANDY VI: 5-MILE SPLITS FOR OCT 19th
Time of Day: Miles completed
02:28 AM: 0
03:48 AM: 5
04:58 AM: 10
MILESTONE: 05:55 AM: 14 miles. Reaches the Mississippi. Goodbye Iowa. Hello Illinois.
06:13 AM: 15
07:18 AM: 20
08:21 AM: 25
So far today wrote:
SANDY VI: 5-MILE SPLITS FOR OCT 19th
Time of Day: Miles completed
02:28 AM: 0
03:48 AM: 5
04:58 AM: 10
MILESTONE: 05:55 AM: 14 miles. Reaches the Mississippi. Goodbye Iowa. Hello Illinois.
06:13 AM: 15
07:18 AM: 20
On what road/highway did she enter the state of Illinois? What is her projected route through illinois?
So far today wrote:
stupid runner wrote:* Mimi’s cadence is about 10 spm quicker than Sandra’s for both walking and running
* Mimi seems to have a fairly even split of walking and running, whilst Sandra seems to consistently run but at a slower overall pace
You have not been following along at all. Mimi was slower than Sandy. The split prove that. Yet her Strava indicates she is faster?
Look, the reason her cadence was buggered was because she was running on a bum leg. The buggered cadence occurred right after the vacation day. Do you know what that day is. Do you know what else happened on that day? Since you have analyzed everything you will know the answers immediately. Then you will understand how tragic it is that Mimi ran on an injured leg. Received medical attention twice yet continued on through all the pain. How she was able to run at all on a leg where the cartilage had ceased to exist days prior.
I'm not sure, but maybe he means that WHEN Mimi was running she was running faster than Sandy. But we know she was walking most of the time.
What exactly happened right after the vacation day? Do you mean Asher's visit?
I haven't read stupid runner's research yet, but at least he acknowledges his bias as Miranda's friend. It looks very thorough so I will read it with great attention.
According to Strava Mimi had an average cadence often close to 180. How is that even possible when she was walking or hobbling most of the time?
Cmon dude wrote:
On what road/highway did she enter the state of Illinois? What is her projected route through illinois?
She is running for the most part along Lincoln Highway (Hwy 30). Her Garmin data shows the intended route in red. Put the following link into your cellphone so you can see where she is. She is very steady in pace which makes it easy to predict when she will arrive somewhere--give or take a half-hour or so. She takes a 30-40 minute lunch break after running approximately 35 miles in the morning.
https://share.garmin.com/SandraVillinesXctrackrnr wrote:
So far today wrote:You have not been following along at all. Mimi was slower than Sandy. The split prove that. Yet her Strava indicates she is faster?
Look, the reason her cadence was buggered was because she was running on a bum leg. The buggered cadence occurred right after the vacation day. Do you know what that day is. Do you know what else happened on that day? Since you have analyzed everything you will know the answers immediately. Then you will understand how tragic it is that Mimi ran on an injured leg. Received medical attention twice yet continued on through all the pain. How she was able to run at all on a leg where the cartilage had ceased to exist days prior.
I'm not sure, but maybe he means that WHEN Mimi was running she was running faster than Sandy. But we know she was walking most of the time.
What exactly happened right after the vacation day? Do you mean Asher's visit?
I haven't read stupid runner's research yet, but at least he acknowledges his bias as Miranda's friend. It looks very thorough so I will read it with great attention.
According to Strava Mimi had an average cadence often close to 180. How is that even possible when she was walking or hobbling most of the time?
After the vacation day there is certainly a lot of walking and a slower pace. There are two sets of data in Mimi's Strava. Analyzing the data as a single set is not what an real analyst does when such a change occurs. There isn't one set of equations that can analyze (smooth) the data. There are two sets of equations.
this is amazing, no?
this is amazing, no? wrote:
https://vimeo.com/231482557this is amazing, no?
That video says it was from a month ago. The background (pines, etc.) look like the area on the way up to Yosemite; not to the valley but on the way up towards Tioga Pass, but with still many miles to go to the Pass itself.
All He Does Is Win wrote:
shite = Scottish poster = friend of Mimi's.
Nailed it!
So far today wrote:
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:-You have some mad R skills.
But he determined that Mimi is faster than Sandy. What he needs to do is look at the data and then realize it needs to be analyzed as two sets of data; before the 'vacation' day, and after the 'vacation' day. That should be obvious to anyone who analyzes data. I do not claim to be a data analyst but for my PhD I did do regression analysis on experimental data--a very long time ago. I designed and built the experiment. Collected the data. And analyzed the data. When there is an unexpected change in the data set you always split the data into parts, then analyze the parts, and then try to figure out why the change occurred. If you cannot figure out why then you run the experiment again.
I agree that there are some things in his analysis that should be corrected but "stupid runner" has written a very thorough and sensible analysis and I think it would be good to work with him to try to see if we can gather additional evidence, such as the full videos since it all leads to that anyways.
Xctrackrnr wrote:
According to Strava Mimi had an average cadence often close to 180. How is that even possible when she was walking or hobbling most of the time?
The only way he could arrive at the conclusion that Mimi was faster then Sandy is by analyzing the entire data set and excluding days at the end. It seems more likely he only analyzed the data before the 'vacation' day. Those were the days when Mimi was on pace to go under 50 days and within striking distance of Frank G's #2 all-time mark. Mimi flew up and down the mountains with the greatest of ease. And remember that the day after the 'vacation' day is when Garmin data was first used. A number of other events occurred at the same time. They are worth making note of because some might provide an explanation for the notable difference between the data before and after the 'vacation' day.
What date was the 'vacation' day?
(The video, though older, gives an idea on what her form and cadence (and watch?, etc.) are, which in themselves, may be of interest.)
Let me correct my comment that the Garmin data started on the 'vacation' day. The Garmin started on September 28th at the far eastern end of Kansas. Mimi's 'vacation day was October 3rd.
So far today wrote:
And remember that the day after the 'vacation' day is when Garmin data was first used.
I don't think this is correct...I think the Garmin showed up at the Kansas western border.
[quote[A number of other events occurred at the same time. They are worth making note of because some might provide an explanation for the notable difference between the data before and after the 'vacation' day.[/quote]
Do you have links etc. to data pertaining to the 'vacation' day which you are referring to?
So far today wrote:
Let me correct my comment that the Garmin data started on the 'vacation' day. The Garmin started on September 28th at the far eastern end of Kansas. Mimi's 'vacation day was October 3rd.
My last message was posted before seeing yours. I want to look at the data surrounding Oct. 3 a little closer. Thanks.
SANDY VI: 5-MILE SPLITS FOR OCT 19th
Time of Day: Miles completed
02:28 AM: 0
03:48 AM: 5
04:58 AM: 10
MILESTONE: 05:55 AM: 14 miles. Reaches the Mississippi. Goodbye Iowa. Hello Illinois.
06:13 AM: 15
07:18 AM: 20
08:21 AM: 25
09:27 AM: 30
God, who cares? She quit. No need to be consumed with Mimi.
this is amazing, no? wrote:
So far today wrote:And remember that the day after the 'vacation' day is when Garmin data was first used.
I don't think this is correct...I think the Garmin showed up at the Kansas western border.
[quote[A number of other events occurred at the same time. They are worth making note of because some might provide an explanation for the notable difference between the data before and after the 'vacation' day.
Do you have links etc. to data pertaining to the 'vacation' day which you are referring to?[/quote]
You are correct. The Garmin started just east of the western border of Kansas. For some reason I thought that was the 'vacation', but that is when I started making note of split times. It took me a few days to figure out a significant change had occurred and the it looked like the change was going to remain.
To further add to my previous comment regarding "stupid runner's" analysis, I have read a bit more about Benford's Law that he used in one of the pieces of evidence and thought it was very interesting that he used that. But from the same Wikipedia article he linked to, Benford's Law is not applicable for the range of numbers seen in cadence data so that part of his analysis should be corrected. It is much easier to see my spoof Strava data is spoofed by plotting the unsmoothed cadence:
Benford's law tends to apply most accurately to data that are distributed uniformly across several orders of magnitude. As a rule of thumb, the more orders of magnitude that the data evenly covers, the more accurately Benford's law applies. For instance, one can expect that Benford's law would apply to a list of numbers representing the populations of UK settlements, or representing the values of small insurance claims. But if a "village" is defined as a settlement with population between 300 and 999, or a "small insurance claim" is defined as a claim between $50 and $99, then Benford's law will not apply.
Scam_Watcheroo wrote:
stupid runner wrote:* Mimi is using 1s capture mode on constant capture for her runs, with the very occasional 3 or 4 sec delay
* Sandra is using 10s capture and has longer pauses in data retrieval of several minutes at a time (auto-pause?)
* Mimi's data sets are therefore an order of magnitude denser than Sandra's
* Mimi’s cadence blips of 200+ spm are likely just random c*ck ups in data capture - they disappear if you smooth out to a 10s capture rate (I was trying to contact her crew to ask her to set a second watch to 10s capture for one of her runs to confirm this, but unfortunately it was too late)
* You probably don’t see them for Sandra because they get averaged out
Very good writeup and is very reasonable. But I need to point out a few things off the top of my head:
-I am NOT Derek Murphy of Marathon Investigations. I have no part in running Marathon Investigations and only know Derek from some email communications I initiated. Why do people keep thinking I'm Derek Murphy?
-Sandra uses Garmin watches with Smart Recording which records the data evey ~8-10 seconds to save memory but it is not smoothed , so I don't think your assumption to apply an 11 second smoothing to Mimi's cadence data is correct. A more correct approach would be to take every 8 or 10th value of Mimi's cadence data, which would mean different results.
https://support.garmin.com/faqSearch/en-CA/faq/content/s4w6kZmbmK0P6l20SgpW28-Benford's law for distribution of digits, that's a very interesting law. I will have to address that in the next version of my spoofing tool. There is a much easier way to see my spoofed data is spoofed, simply plot the unsmoothed cadence. You will see my oscillations in the unsmoothed cadence are way too big and regular. I'm surprised no one caught that yet. It's something I'll fix in future versions.
-The spoofing is not to say that it is exactly what is happening with Mimi. The spoofing came about because URC was saying only the Strava data matters and I wanted to show why ALL the evidence matters including the GPS trackers.
-I agree that the Strava data is very likely real life recorded data.
-We can end all of this if only Mimi and her team would release their full videos.
-You have some mad R skills.
Am I living in the twilight zone? The Boston Marathon weather was terrible!
Des Linden: "The entire sport" has changed since she first started running Boston.
Matt Choi was drinking beer halfway through the Boston Marathon
2024 College Track & Field Open Coaching Positions Discussion
Is there a rule against attaching a helium balloon to yourself while running a road race?