calculo wrote:
the prelim line of fit i have for him based on above is
49.75 / 1'45.50
->
3'28.02 !!
7'18.53 !!!
12'38.52 !!
26'32.04 !!
further
for edris, i don't think he is as quick as mo over 400 ( only bernie & possibly gebremeskel i think were ever such ), but i think he is close, perhaps 50-low/mid
i certainly think he was in 12'45 shape, considering 6 guys went 12'46 - 12'49 in '12 in a still somewhat tactical race with winner, gebremeskel finishing a 12'46 with 54+ running wide in lane 1/ into lane 2 the whole last lap !!!, & no way were all 6 of those guys all hugely better ability than edris, meaing if edris had been in that 12'46 race, he wouda been challenging for 2nd
so, i reckon we have to look for a line with 50-25 - 50.50 & ~ 12'45
( forget any 10k estimates, edris is primarily a 5k guy & woudn't be expected to get near his hypothetical 10k as not enough mileage for it as training for 5k, but he woud be expected to run the following 800/1500/3k off that 5k training ) ->
50.25 - 50.50 / 1'46.50 - 1'46.75
->
3'29.93 - 3'29.89
7'21.43 - 7'22.28
12'42.20 - 12'44.77
26'36.28 - 26'44.54
( estimates only to nearest 0.25s for 400/800 so unfortunately you won't get exact match of ~ 12'45 )
what this tells me, is that mo woud definitely not have lost the 5k if he had skipped the 10k & that the exertions of that 10k probably cost him near 1s in 400 speed
i think lining up for the 5k, his energy was sapped by 10k & he was more like :
50.50 / 1'47.00
->
3'30.83
7'24.16
12'47.89
26'50.79
which is a way of saying that if you run a hard 10k & just over 1 week later try to run another hard 10k, you woud be slower by ~ 20s & it woud also have cost you ~ 10s for a 5k compared to a fully rested 5k
these guys aren't supermen, it's why likes of geb/kennster didn't double up that often ( kennster didn't from '04 until '08 ) as i reckon a hard 10k can cost you close to 10s for an upcoming 5k if all races flat-out from gun