OBIRI TO BREAK 5000M WORLD RECORD SUNDAY!

Won't happen

Ayana wont go down easy. Remember in Rio that she wasted energy running unnecessarily fast in the 5k heats and dropped a ridiculous 60 something lap in the middle of the final to gap the field too suddenly. If she learned anything from her loss in Rio, she will run like she did with her WR attempts last year. There is no doubt Obiri is fit and could beat her with a kick, but I wouldn't underestimate Ayana's ability to gap her and still win.

14:07 Obiri??

Are you nuts??

What is it based on? A 14:18 she had?

Her only chance to win is if, for some reason, Ayana doesn't stretch it from the gun. If Ayana goes hard from the WR pace. Obiri won't have a chance

Obiri knows that she has silver in the bag(and maybe a national record /PB) should she fail to catch Ayana. The warning is meant to make Ayana nervous and hesitant to push the pace early. That gives Obiri an upper hand since she can win against Ayana in a sprint. I definitely see Obiri winning this thing. Will wait and see.

She's a fattie.

Ayana could run a 5000 WR backwards. She's in ridiculous shape.

That's an amazing quote deep in the linked article, with Obiri asserting that she will "use Ayana as a pacesetter" toward breaking the world record.

So she was something like 45/1 in last year's Olympic final, if I remember correctly, and now she's using world record holders and 14:12 runners as convenient rabbits. I could understand the bravado if she had actually won the gold last year instead of a somewhat distanced silver. I realize she was coming off a maternity year.

Fascinating race. I'm pulling for Ayana but I won't wager. The value is gone after the 10,000.

Unless the pace is slow allowing Hassan within striking distance the two big guns should separate. Then what happens? I'd like to see Ayana tease Obiri with a narrow lead and then stun her by winning the last lap sprint. Everyone believes that is unthinkable but likewise it was supposed to be impossible for Ayana against Genzebe in the 3000 Zurich race not long after the world championships in 2015. It went from revenge to another crushing late defeat for Genzebe.

It might be that Ayana is mentally stronger than her countrywoman Genzebe and makes sure to reach down to do anything to defeat her, but isn't as rock solid and doesn't have the same desperation against runners from other countries. Sounds weird but I've seen the dynamic before.

You are a good student of the sport but missed out on some facts. Obiri was only a 14:31 runner when she ran Olympics last year. Secondly she was still new to the event and ran it only because she could not master the speed necessary for 1500m due to her maternity leave. But even then she still ran a PB while winning silver.

Now fast forward to August 2017, Obiri has concentrated on the 5000m and has been virtually unbeatable. And I bet my last dollar the race on Sunday is not going to be different. Welcome to the new Queen.

Everyone was saying the same thing two years ago - that Genzebe Dibaba would use Ayana as a pace maker to break the world record. Didn't happen, Ayana destroyed Dibaba. She will do the same with Obiri.

I hope Ayana (or Ayana's coaches) have enough sense not to try any stupid Farah's-like tatics and run fast steady WR pace from the gun. If done so, Obiri doesn't stand a chance. Obiri's only chance to win is if Ayana makes a mistake. Somehow I feel like she's going to make this mistake. I hope she doesn't.

mako wrote:

Everyone was saying the same thing two years ago - that Genzebe Dibaba would use Ayana as a pace maker to break the world record. Didn't happen, Ayana destroyed Dibaba. She will do the same with Obiri.

Genzebe's problem is that she focused her training towards 1500m and speed and put in less endurance work. On the other hand Obiri built her endurance starting during cross country season winning races including beating Faith Kipyegon among others. So do not make any comparison at all. Two different people and two different seasons.

What does she say at 1:15?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEeZWIBFH-A

"I think probably we are going to do like 14-flat..."

??

She said 14:30

It sounds like she said "fourteen that"- which I don't know what that means. Her speech reminds me a lot of Kipchoge's.

Crimea River wrote:

What does she say at 1:15?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lEeZWIBFH-A

"I think probably we are going to do like 14-flat..."

??

She says 14:30

El Keniano wrote:

She said 14:30

Can you quote what she said about Genzebe? I couldn't understand a word she was saying for that ten second window.

As far as the race goes, it is very tough to call. I honestly don't know whom to pick. I'm going with Hellen on this one, assuming the race goes out slower than 3 minutes at the 1k. Ayana will probably still be a little tired from the 10k, and I don't think she will be able to drop Obiri by the time the bell sounds.

Obiri is continuing to push the needle on Ayana. She might pull it off but it's dangerous to pick on someone that talented:

“Ayana who is fond of going fast ahead of everyone will have it hard this time round. I will follow her from behind. She has a poor kick in the last lap and I will take advantage of that and beat her,” said Obiri.

http://www.nation.co.ke/sports/athletics/Hellen-Obiri-leads-5000m-medals-charge/1100-4054386-lqqauhz/index.html

This might be a particularly unfortunate word choice.Or completely appropriate...

Awsi Dooger wrote:

Obiri is continuing to push the needle on Ayana.

Vivian C is the one who figured out Ayana for both 10000m and 5000m. Unfortunately, she didn't have Obiri with her at 10000m, because her teammate at 10000m panicked and went out with Ayana. That messed up that whole race. But at 5000m, and Obiri being an intelligent runner as well, the tactic was successful.

Tactic: Don't follow Ayana when she goes out, just cap her lead, because she will slow down. And in every race she has slowed down in the last 2-3 laps. Let her go out at her fast pace, but don't let the lead grow no bigger than 30-40m, and then stay on pace with the lead. She will come back as she slows, and she does not have a 400m kick. So out kick her in the last 1 0r 2 laps.

Ayan can't run any other way, because she is not a sit and kicker. She only runs to jump out fast, and just continue to turn the screw. So simply cap the lead, stay on pace with the lead, and let her tire herself out.