Anyone else find it interesting that you could probably count about 5 or 6 people on this list that did anything on a national or professional stage after high school? It's a good thing the parents and club coaches are grinding the track and field life out of many of these kids.
http://www.flotrack.org/article/59257-top-ten-most-impressive-aau-national-records
You are looking at it all wrong.
If you were going to predict who would be a great college/pro athlete, this list would be the number one place you would look.
If you had to predict either the people on that list, or the field, you would take the field every time. The fact that the field swallows up many or most of the people on that list does not mean what you think it means.
I'm sure many of them are multi sport athletes and went on to a program/sport that actually has something financial to offer young people. "Hey I've got books and partial room and board for you," vs. "Full tuition paid, an Escalade and hookers." Yes, that second one was a direct quote from Hugh Freeze.
Brave New World= Houston Nutt
Another ridiculous post.
The chances of ANYONE being "famous" as a runner is less than nil. Even so, if anything, being on this list is highly predictive of future success relative to the rest of the population. Your chances of being famous as a runner (while tiny for all) is much higher if you are a youth star than for the rest of the general population. This is common sense.
Having said that:
I happen to know a few kids on these lists (that are now older) and I can assure you in those few cases at least, there is no chance, no way, no how, that they would have become famous in running. No matter what they did.
They happened to be pretty good youth athletes. And thats all one can say.
Should they have not competed? And now not have the memories (and records in a few cases?). And still have no chance of other "fame" in running?
If you have a bone to pick with "overtraining" kids, go check out a gymnastics or swim team where kids sometimes practice almost every day for hours. And for what?
At least with running, there is a limit to the time one can actually spend training.