Does an average runner have a real shot at a BQ (in this case, 3:10-3:00 for 3:07) with a 6 month base that averages 50 mpw followed by a 12 week cycle that averages 55 mpw and hits all the right phases of training?
Does an average runner have a real shot at a BQ (in this case, 3:10-3:00 for 3:07) with a 6 month base that averages 50 mpw followed by a 12 week cycle that averages 55 mpw and hits all the right phases of training?
In case it's not clear, that should be 3:10:00 - 3:00 (to actually get into Boston) for a 3:07 net time.
Use Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning 70 MPW peak
Starts at 50 moves up from there
I've run Boston 4 times now (2:54, 2:58, 2:55, 3:11 bonk this year from the heat.) My current PR is 2:51 (December 2016) and I've run 12 marathons with an average of 3:01. All of my training cycles are 35-55 miles per week. So, yeah you can do it...
What was your base or experience before guy started?
Want2getfaster wrote:
Does an average runner have a real shot at a BQ (in this case, 3:10-3:00 for 3:07) with a 6 month base that averages 50 mpw followed by a 12 week cycle that averages 55 mpw and hits all the right phases of training?
Many folks run sub-3 marathons on low mileage, but there are also many who train a lot more, and never run faster than 3:15. I suspect the "average runner" might never be able to maintain 7:07 per mile for 26 miles (or whatever pace is a 3:07 marathon).
If you mean to ask, does the average 19:00 5K runner have a shot at 3:07 marathon on 50 miles per week, I would say, definitely yes. And just about every 17:00 5K runner could do it very easily if the 50mpw included an adequate long run.
I understand your point. It seems there is a bit of a chicken and an egg though with the 19 minute 5k. If ones goal is a fast marathon, and they never ran cross country, a 5k time is likely just a byproduct of marathon training rather than a starting place from which to goal set. If that makes sense.
I was thinking that the usual progression is to start running casually, decide to run local 5Ks, then decide to tackle a marathon. With even a relatively brief racing history, one can get a sense of potential marathon performance, and necessary training volume. In my 40s, I was racing 5Ks in the low 17s, and a 2:55 marathon was pretty easy off 50-mile weeks. In my 20s, I averaged well below 50 mpw, and consistently ran marathons in the 2:40s. Bottom line is that mileage is just one component. Your plan is solid, and I think that for many people, increasing mileage beyond 55 or 60 mpw yields diminishing returns and much greater injury risk.