Here are the top returning teams based on 5k/10k time (slightly more weight given to 10k times). If two schools were close I went with the one that placed higher last year at nationals
1 NCC
Patel, Dhruvil 14:15.65
McKenna, Nolan 14:22.89
Hird, Zach 14:46.33
Norvell, Matthew 14:50.70 30:13.00
Sismelich, Steven 15:01.96 31:32.50
2 Geneseo
Garcia-Cassani, Isaac 14:16.80
Burks, Alex 14:54.37 31:06.40
Tate, Jackson 15:01.02 32:00.72
Pulvidente, Connor 15:09.71 31:59.24
Jorgensen, Matt 15:21.90
3 Johns Hopkins
Murray, PJ 14:55.98
Doran, Alex 14:57.25
Wall, Liam 14:57.51
Hickson, Oliver 14:58.10 31:27.08
Patel 14:58.76
4 Wash U
O'gara, David 15:38.87 30:15.79
Johnsrud, Peter 14:58.75 31:17.23
Quaroni, Marco 15:07.28
d'Ambrosio, Paul 15:08.69
Simon, Kirby 15:09.40
5 La-Crosse
Schultz, Thomas 14:43.93 30:43.28
Schaeder, Joshua 14:54.07
Nault, Tyler 15:06.03 31:13.40
Shoemaker-Allen, Zach 15:00.94
Weisse, Jonah 15:48.72 32:29.79
6 Williams
Anderson, Austin 14:30.05
Decker, Ben 15:15.84 31:08.12
Cohen, Zeke 15:10.93
Morris, Mitchell 14:51.62 31:50.00
McGovern , Will 15:16.69 31:57.71
7 MIT
Maloney, Dennis 14:37.95 30:07.93
Derrick, Josh 15:15.15
Goldy, Steven 15:16.11
Weiss, Daniel 15:20.28 31:46.73
Walter, David 15:20.43 33:12.17
8 Amherst
Brossy, Cosmo 14:41.14 31:11.83
Ricciardelli, Clark 14:59.09 31:02.95
Meijer, Tucker 15:12.05 32:18.95
Ferguson-Dryden, Spencer 15:42.48
Zambrano, Aaron 15:44.55 34:05.50
9 Loras
Tope, Mason 14:52.34 30:41.75
Sevcik, Timothy 14:48.99
Wolak, Patrick 15:24.53
Ensminger, Colin 15:47.37
Stoppelman, John 15:52.54 33:41.96
10 Eau Claire
Lau, Darin 14:13.21
Paucek, Brendon 15:14.51
Carmichael, Ben 15:32.73
Bachmeier, David 15:38.33
Dupont, Anthony 15:49.02 32:53.08
Mostly what we'd expect, except for that Hopkins is very high up there. No 10k times from these guys, but if their 5ks translate well to cross they could challenge Geneseo for sure. NCC looks pretty much unbeatable, but crazier things have hapenned. Most teams will need to count on their 4th or 5th guys to have good days if they'll want to be in podium contention.
This is also of course all super-preliminary and the actual pecking order will become more clear in October.
Feel free to add if you think your team is relevant too (sorry CMS, but you've got one foot in the grave)