MIAC XC 2017

running oracle wrote:

Don't like my rankings? Fix them!

http://www.ranker.com/list/miac-cc-2017/1505664071131

Bro. Did you even look at Olaf Invite results or did you just generate these rankings randomly?

I started with the rankings I posted earlier. The rankings will fluctuate a lot until enough people have voted.

I'm sure this list will become very accurate. I look forward to the critical, objective response from St Olaf's JV team.

+1

Could we rank the top 100 or so. I feel like people on Olaf and other teams JV should be on there because the team they are on are so good.

I see many runners more than once on the rankings list. It would be nice if that was fixed.

Should be fixed now. Thanks for letting me know.

You guys are sleeping on Tremayne Collins. This kid is doing 90+ mile weeks right now. He is just training through these meets. Easily top 5 for him. I say he is the only one with a chance who could beat Donson.

Because he is the only one doing 90+ mile weeks...

I respect the idea that plenty are sleeping on him, since he is the technical top returner from last year. But Donson is just way too good. Even if he blows up, all he has to do is sit and kick on whoever is leading.

Donson wasn't that far off from Darin Lau at that Olaf meet, that is a bit scary how great his range is. The only other recent runner to even be close to Darin was Bugler at Eau Claire, and him and Coffee completely outclassed everyone at last year's MIACs. If Donson is at that level, then there is no touching him.

Sorry. Collins is top 8 material, though.

my two cents at least wrote:

Donson wasn't that far off from Darin Lau at that Olaf meet, that is a bit scary how great his range is. The only other recent runner to even be close to Darin was Bugler at Eau Claire, and him and Coffee completely outclassed everyone at last year's MIACs. If Donson is at that level, then there is no touching him.

Don't make it sound like Donson was close to Lau last weekend. Lau beat him by over 20 seconds, with all of the distance coming in the second half of the race. I think it's also reasonable to say Lau was using this as an early season rust buster/hard workout and did not really push his limits, as his real goals this fall aren't until November. Donson will probably be MIAC champ though, especially if at conference he runs with a strategy of "sit in the lead pack until 7K and then kick."

I agree, let's not compare him to Lau. That man is a crazy D3 talent in the distance events.

But no one inn the MIAC is running away from Donson. Any sit-and-kick strategy will certainly allow him to win. It would take a team effort by some talented individuals to run the kick out of Donson. That said, Jerry has had poor showing at MIAC cross country before. His last full xc season was very, very lackluster. So it is possible.

I don't know if Collins will be the guy to do it, but I just have a feeling Donson isn't winning miac. He has the capability of sit and kick, but he's been running VERY fast very early in the season, and I've got a feeling he's gonna be racing tired. You can only dip into the well so many times before it runs dry...somebody is gonna take him. Look at how Ryan bugler ran at eau Claire last year, 25:15 and beat joe coffey by a margin, but who won miac? Don't count chickens before they're hatched, that's all I'm saying.

Who is going to beat his tired 25:45?

Upset City wrote:

I don't know if Collins will be the guy to do it, but I just have a feeling Donson isn't winning miac. He has the capability of sit and kick, but he's been running VERY fast very early in the season, and I've got a feeling he's gonna be racing tired. You can only dip into the well so many times before it runs dry...somebody is gonna take him. Look at how Ryan bugler ran at eau Claire last year, 25:15 and beat joe coffey by a margin, but who won miac? Don't count chickens before they're hatched, that's all I'm saying.

I fully agree. Either Donson will train through MIAC for regionals or nationals, or he will be tired for MIAC. One or the other.

That said, I don't think he will have as much of a drop as Bugler did when he got hurt (or sick, I can't remember) after Eau Claire. If Donson stays healthy his "bad" racing is still better than most.

WEEK 4 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1:

1 . Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2:

2. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

3. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

4. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

5. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

6. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

7. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

Tier 3:

8. William Anderson, St. Olaf

9. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

10. Evan Hatton, Bethel

11. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

12. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

13. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

14. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

15. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

Tier 4:

16. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf

17. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

18. Munir Isahak, Concordia

19. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf

20. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

21. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

22. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

23. Tris Dodge, Carleton

Tier 5:

24. James Doherty, Macalester

25. Chris Boranian, Macalester

26. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

27. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

28. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

29. Jake Lepak, Macalester

30. Erik Larson, Concordia

31. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

32. Spencer Grant, Macalester

33. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

34. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

35. David Huffman, Bethel

36. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

37. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

38. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

39. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

40. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

41. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

42. Spencer Urick, St. Thomas

43. Riley Sandberg, Gustavus

44. Andrew Wischnack, Gustavus

Tier 6:

45. Josh Halverson, Bethel

46. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

47. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

48. Matthew Bartels, St. John’s

49. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

50. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

51. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

52. Sam Jewson, Hamline

53. Nick Solheim, Concordia

54. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

55. George McGivern, St. Thomas

56. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s

57. Justin Brakob, St. John’s

58. Connor Haugen, Bethel

59. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

60. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

Tier 7:

61. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

62. Connor Haugrud, Concordia

63. Ben Roen, Hamline

64. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s

65. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

Tier 8:

66. Nolan Ebner, Macalester

67. Edwin Reyes Herrera, Macalester

68. Ben Borash, Macalester

69. Jonathon Meaden, St. Mary’s

70. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

71. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

72. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

Tier 9

73. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Greg Miller, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTION

St. Olaf (25 points)

St. Olaf didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“St. Olaf beat Carleton 102-126, led by Henschel’s 4th place finish. They could have won by more but Ketola didn’t race and Paul Timm didn’t run well. I still expect Timm to be one of the top runners in the MIAC and I think he could finish as high as second, but I had to move him down in my rankings because of his poor performance. Assuming Ketola is healthy and Timm improves, it looks like the Oles have a solid five that will lead them to a 6th straight title.”

Carleton (48 points)

Carleton didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“While Carleton was 24 points behind St. Olaf, they could have pulled off the upset if Cameron Meikle had run or Dodge had run to his potential. Their top 3 are solid but after that there are unanswered questions. A healthy Meikle should be top 15, and Tris Dodge has shown that he has the ability to be a top 10 runner. Nakajima is a good runner and has continued to improve, but I don’t think he’s good enough to score on a conference championship team. St. Olaf is the clear favorite at this point, but Carleton could still win if everything is perfect for them.”

Bethel (127 points)

I think Bethel is in a great position to finish 3rd at MIAC. They have two potential top 15 runners in Hatton and Lelinga, and their 3-5 should be close to the top 40. They also have a strong group of 6th-9th runners, who could also end up in their top 5. Right now they are my pick to finish 3rd, but there are several other teams that could beat them.

Concordia (148 points)

I am blown away by how well Concordia has been running so far this season., and I think they’re performance at Griak was their best of the season, although it is difficult to draw conclusions since Griak is such a challenging course and it was very hot. They have two top 25 runners, and solid depth behind them. I don’t think they have the same upside as some of the teams around them, but they have improved significantly and have a great chance to be top 5 at MIAC.

St. John’s (150 points)

St. John’s hasn’t raced the past two weekends. Here are my comments from two weeks ago:

“Last week I wondered if St. John’s would be able to reload with a strong freshman class. It looks like they have. Their 4th and 5th runners at Luther, Bartels and Colleran, are both freshmen. I was also impressed by the performances of their top 3, Burgstahler, Collins, and Lamb. The Johnnies have historically outdone expectations at MIAC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish 3rd.”

St. Thomas (164 points)

Wachter proved that his breakout opener was not a fluke, and showed that he has a chance to be a top 10 runner in the MIAC. Behind him, it doesn’t look like they have any other potential top 25 runners, but Rosenau showed last spring that he does have that upside. If Rosenau or someone else breaks out, St. Thomas could finish 3rd. Otherwise, I don’t expect them to finish higher than 5th.

Hamline (166 points)

Hamline didn’t perform as well as I expected at Griak, but they were missing their #1 (Benitez) and their #5 (Duchenes) from their opener. Assuming those two are healthy, I still think Hamline has top 5 upside, but somewhere between 4th and 8th is more likely.

Macalester (171 points)

Mac has a very strong top 4, but they are in desperate need of a 5th. If they can get a 5th close to their top 4, they have top 3 upside. Of everyone outside of their top 4, I think Ebner has the best chance to do that. He’s one of the best 800 runners in the MIAC, and I think he has the potential to be a top 40 runner. But if Mac can’t find a 5th, they could end up as low as 9th.

Gustavus (188 points)

Gustavus didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“What a weird team. The Gusties had just an 11 second spread from 1-5 and 18 seconds from 1-7. Right now it looks like those seven will be in the 30s at MIAC, which would probably put them in the bottom half of the MIAC. However, Gustavus could end up 3rd if four or five of them get into the 20s.”

St. Mary’s (269 points)

St. Mary’s didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“O’Hare had a strong race on Saturday and I expect him to be top 10 at MIAC, which should keep St. Mary’s out of the basement. However, it looks like he will be the only bright spot this season.”

Augsburg (357 points)

Augsburg didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Augsburg only ran five runners on Saturday. Honestly this makes me sad. I know teams have down years, but no team in this conference should be this bad. Every team should be able to at least field a full team and have a chance to compete.”

Also...keep voting!

http://www.ranker.com/list/miac-cc-2017/1505664071131?publish=true

I don't get why you have Concordia so high up in the rankings. They had a bad performance at St. Olaf and at Griak you can't tell how they would stack up against other teams. But looking at Griak, they didn't blow me away. I still think they should still be around 8-9th place.