MIAC XC 2017

Big weekend at the St. Olaf invite. My predictions are that St. Olaf will lose to Carleton by a small margin. Donson for the win. Bethel and Gustavus will show how they can run a good 8k in early season.

To respond to the rankings, there is no way Hamline will get 3rd in the MIAC.

Big Weekend wrote:

Big weekend at the St. Olaf invite. My predictions are that St. Olaf will lose to Carleton by a small margin. Donson for the win. Bethel and Gustavus will show how they can run a good 8k in early season.

To respond to the rankings, there is no way Hamline will get 3rd in the MIAC.

Say it to my face bitch

Love these weekly updates. I will enjoy watching the progress of each team week-to-week. The analysis seems to be relatively unbiased, for the most part, as well. Keep it up!

Who is the 3rd best team in the MIAC?

https://strawpoll.com/4hfygye8

Here's a thought: What will Tremayne Collins from Saint John's pull out of the bag for MIAC? As the top technical returner to the miac (DCG and Paul timm obviously being huge factors who weren't included last season), he could make a move.

Last Cross season he seemed to peak very well for MIAC. Found these times to verify...

Gustavus 5k 9/10/16: 17:08 & 12th overall

Jim drews 8k 10/15/16: 27:02

MIAC 8k 10/29/16: 26:41 & 9th overall

His track season though was less impressive. He seemed to come in decently fit & either burned out or got hurt.

Hamline 4/01/17: 15:29 5k

Bolstroff 4/27/17: 16:05 5k

Could he be an underdog? I think DCG and Paul Timm are gunning for top 2, but he might surprise people. Thoughts?

New team same result.

Interesting you would randomly throw out that name. Collins has been slacking lately from what I hear. He's got zero speed or turnover.

RoadRunner157 wrote:

Here's a thought: What will Tremayne Collins from Saint John's pull out of the bag for MIAC? As the top technical returner to the miac (DCG and Paul timm obviously being huge factors who weren't included last season), he could make a move.

Last Cross season he seemed to peak very well for MIAC. Found these times to verify...

Gustavus 5k 9/10/16: 17:08 & 12th overall

Jim drews 8k 10/15/16: 27:02

MIAC 8k 10/29/16: 26:41 & 9th overall

His track season though was less impressive. He seemed to come in decently fit & either burned out or got hurt.

Hamline 4/01/17: 15:29 5k

Bolstroff 4/27/17: 16:05 5k

Could he be an underdog? I think DCG and Paul Timm are gunning for top 2, but he might surprise people. Thoughts?

I think a repeat performance is possible but not much more than that. I'd like to see some more consistently good racing from him before I'd say anything more than that

So remember when people were saying that gustavus' freshmen were nearly as good carelton's?

They ran about as well as I expected too.

Carleton gets bub smacked by olaf, who didn't even run some of their big boys. Maybe next century!

~olafjv

Bethel (127 points)

“Bethel should be right there with St. Thomas pushing for 3rd. Their X-factor is Andy Barnhart. He ran 8:48 in the 3k and 15:27 in the 5k but ran poorly in Bethel’s first meet of the year. If he can get into the top 15, I think Bethel could place 3rd.”

Macalester (231 points)

Mac looks very similar to Concordia this year. They have a few runners who could be top 25, and their depth isn’t too bad. However, it won’t be enough to keep them out of the bottom half of the MIAC.

Where did Barnhart run those track times? Is this a different guy? The one I see was their #15 guy in 29:47, and ran 15:51/4:10 last spring, and 63rd last year. What am I missing? There's nothing to indicate he could be top 15. Maybe in a couple years?

A team with a few runners in the top 25 most certainly has a chance to be top half. Admittedly they are underdogs as they underperformed last year in 9th, just behind Bethel. But in track Boranian was 6th in the 1500, Ebner 4th in the 800, and Doherty ran 15:19. It stings that they lost Harper, who was 9th in the 5000 (he transferred to D1 school DePaul and ran 26:20s last week), but they are no doubt a better team than represented above. They were right behind Bethel yesterday by 16 points. They may have a couple runners coming back from injury but they should very much be able to challenge Bethel for a top 4 spot.

St. Olaf were missing Keith Ketola, not sure what other "big boys" are missing. Carleton were running without #4 guy Keenan Ronayne. So I don't think conference results are quite decided at this point.

Fastnbulbous wrote:

[quote]

St. Olaf were missing Keith Ketola, not sure what other "big boys" are missing. Carleton were running without #4 guy Keenan Ronayne. So I don't think conference results are quite decided at this point.

Olaf was also missing Alex Berhe. Paul Timm ran but had a tough day. Both of these guys will be up there when it matters.

Yo to the MIAC. I'm back again this year with more mediocre race videos. This year I think I'm gonna let each clip run a lot longer than before & do less fast-forwarding in the front of the race, so other competitors/letsrun nerds can really see where everyone was in relation to each other, distance-wise.

But yeah, here's the Olaf Invitational Vid. I apologize for the shaky cam at times, as I was racing as well & couldn't film.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX1LTk6GOJo

ShittySpielberg wrote:

Yo to the MIAC. I'm back again this year with more mediocre race videos. This year I think I'm gonna let each clip run a lot longer than before & do less fast-forwarding in the front of the race, so other competitors/letsrun nerds can really see where everyone was in relation to each other, distance-wise.

But yeah, here's the Olaf Invitational Vid. I apologize for the shaky cam at times, as I was racing as well & couldn't film.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xX1LTk6GOJo

You're the only reason I still come to this page. ShittySpielberg, thank you.

I don't get why you think Timm will be up there. He might be top 10. But there are people better than him on his team this year. I don't care if he is injured, he won't beat Jack or Tommy on his team at MIACs. I think Tre might be top 10 again this year. Nothing higher than 7th though. He has to prove himself if he wants to be ranked high. If he cares.... Which I don't think he does knowing him.

WEEK 3 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1

1. Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2

2. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

3. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

4. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

5. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

6. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

7. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

Tier 3

8. William Anderson, St. Olaf

9. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

10. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

11. Evan Hatton, Bethel

12. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

13. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

14. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

Tier 4

15. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

16. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

17. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf

18. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf

19. Munir Isahak, Concordia

20. James Doherty, Macalester

21. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

22. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

23. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

24. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

25. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

26. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

27. Tris Dodge, Carleton

Tier 5

28. Chris Boranian, Macalester

29. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

30. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

31. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

32. Jake Lepak, Macalester

33. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

34. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

35. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

36. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

37. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

38. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

39. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

40. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

41. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

42. Spencer Urick, St. Thomas

43. Ryley Sandberg, Gustavus

44. Andrew Wischnack, Gustavus

Tier 6

45. Spencer Grant, Macalester

46. Matthew Bartels, St. John’s

47. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

48. Josh Halverson, Bethel

49. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

50. Erik Larson, Concordia

51. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s

52. Justin Brakob, St. John’s

53. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

54. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

55. Connor Haugen, Bethel

56. Taylor Huffman, Bethel

57. Nick Solheim, Concordia

58. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

59. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

Tier 7

60. George McGivern, St. Thomas

61. Ben Roen, Hamline

62. Adrian Johnson, Macalester

63. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

64. Collin Hartogh, Hamline

65. Jordan Malikowski, Macalester

66. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

Tier 8

67. Edwin Reyes Herrera, Macalester

68. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

69. Jonathon Meaden, St. Mary’s

70. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

71. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

72. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

Tier 9

73. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Greg Miller, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

St. Olaf (25 points)

St. Olaf beat Carleton 102-126, led by Henschel’s 4th place finish. They could have won by more but Ketola didn’t race and Paul Timm didn’t run well. I still expect Timm to be one of the top runners in the MIAC and I think he could finish as high as second, but I had to move him down in my rankings because of his poor performance. Assuming Ketola is healthy and Timm improves, it looks like the Oles have a solid five that will lead them to a 6th straight title.

Carleton (48 points)

While Carleton was 24 points behind St. Olaf, they could have pulled off the upset if Cameron Meikle had run or Dodge had run to his potential. Their top 3 are solid but after that there are unanswered questions. A healthy Meikle should be top 15, and Tris Dodge has shown that he has the ability to be a top 10 runner. Nakajima is a good runner and has continued to improve, but I don’t think he’s good enough to score on a conference championship team. St. Olaf is the clear favorite at this point, but Carleton could still win if everything is perfect for them.

Hamline (127 points)

Hamline didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Hamline competed in an all D1 race last weekend, which makes it difficult to compare them to the rest of the MIAC. Also, Les Bolstad is such a challenging course you can’t learn much from their times. Their top 3, Benitez, Gustafson, and Mehrhof, ran well. They are going to be hurt by not having a low stick, but if their top 5 can all finish close to the top 25, I think they can finish 3rd.”

Bethel (131 points)

Bethel had good performances from Hatton and Lelinga on Saturday, but Bethke, their #2 from their last meet, didn’t run. If Bethke is healthy or someone else steps up, they will be in the running for 3rd.

St. John’s (145 points)

St. John’s didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Last week I wondered if St. John’s would be able to reload with a strong freshman class. It looks like they have. Their 4th and 5th runners at Luther, Bartels and Colleran, are both freshmen. I was also impressed by the performances of their top 3, Burgstahler, Collins, and Lamb. The Johnnies have historically outdone expectations at MIAC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish 3rd.”

St. Thomas (156 points)

St. Thomas didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Wachter had a great breakout race last weekend, and established himself as a potential top 15 runner. That was the only standout performance for the Tommies, but they have strong depth as usual. Rosenau was the biggest disappointment, but if he can get back to where he was last spring, St. Thomas could push for top 3.”

Macalester (179 points)

Mac’s top 2, Doherty and Boranian, ran poorly at River Falls last week, but they showed significant improvement at St. Olaf. Another good race from Lepak gives them a solid top 3, but I don’t think they have enough depth to compete for top 3.

Gustavus (183 points)

What a weird team. The Gusties had just an 11 second spread from 1-5 and 18 seconds from 1-7. Right now it looks like those seven will be in the 30s at MIAC, which would probably put them in the bottom half of the MIAC. However, Gustavus could end up 3rd if four or five of them get into the 20s.

Concordia (207 points)

Concordia ended up moving down from 8th to 9th in my rankings, but that was mostly a result of Macalester improving from last week, not Concordia running poorly. Isahak and Wicklund ran well again for Concordia, and they both could be top 25. Unfortunately, they don’t have the depth to compete for top 5.

St. Mary’s (264 points)

O’Hare had a strong race on Saturday and I expect him to be top 10 at MIAC, which should keep St. Mary’s out of the basement. However, it looks like he will be the only bright spot this season.

Augsburg (358 points)

Augsburg only ran five runners on Saturday. Honestly this makes me sad. I know teams have down years, but no team in this conference should be this bad. Every team should be able to at least field a full team and have a chance to compete.

Looking forward to your comments and feedback. I’m working on another project that I’m hoping to post later today, if not within a few days.

Made a mistake on the last post. Here is WEEK 3 UPDATE 2.0

WEEK 3 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1

1 . Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2

2. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

3. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

4. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

5. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

6. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

7. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

Tier 3

8. William Anderson, St. Olaf

9. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

10. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

11. Evan Hatton, Bethel

12. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

13. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

14. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

Tier 4

15. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

16. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

17. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf

18. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf

19. Munir Isahak, Concordia

20. James Doherty, Macalester

21. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

22. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

23. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

24. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

25. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

26. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

27. Tris Dodge, Carleton

Tier 5

28. Chris Boranian, Macalester

29. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

30. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

31. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

32. Jake Lepak, Macalester

33. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

34. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

35. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

36. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

37. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

38. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

39. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

40. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

41. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

42. Spencer Urick, St. Thomas

43. Ryley Sandberg, Gustavus

44. Andrew Wischnack, Gustavus

Tier 6

45. Spencer Grant, Macalester

46. Matthew Bartels, St. John’s

47. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

48. Josh Halverson, Bethel

49. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

50. Erik Larson, Concordia

51. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s

52. Justin Brakob, St. John’s

53. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

54. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

55. Connor Haugen, Bethel

56. Taylor Huffman, Bethel

57. Nick Solheim, Concordia

58. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

59. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

Tier 7

60. George McGivern, St. Thomas

61. Ben Roen, Hamline

62. Adrian Johnson, Macalester

63. Brendan Johnson, Concordia

64. Collin Hartogh, Hamline

65. Jordan Malikowski, Macalester

66. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

Tier 8

67. Edwin Reyes Herrera, Macalester

68. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

69. Jonathon Meaden, St. Mary’s

70. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

71. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

72. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

Tier 9

73. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Greg Miller, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

St. Olaf (25 points)

St. Olaf beat Carleton 102-126, led by Henschel’s 4th place finish. They could have won by more but Ketola didn’t race and Paul Timm didn’t run well. I still expect Timm to be one of the top runners in the MIAC and I think he could finish as high as second, but I had to move him down in my rankings because of his poor performance. Assuming Ketola is healthy and Timm improves, it looks like the Oles have a solid five that will lead them to a 6th straight title.

Carleton (48 points)

While Carleton was 24 points behind St. Olaf, they could have pulled off the upset if Cameron Meikle had run or Dodge had run to his potential. Their top 3 are solid but after that there are unanswered questions. A healthy Meikle should be top 15, and Tris Dodge has shown that he has the ability to be a top 10 runner. Nakajima is a good runner and has continued to improve, but I don’t think he’s good enough to score on a conference championship team. St. Olaf is the clear favorite at this point, but Carleton could still win if everything is perfect for them.

Hamline (127 points)

Hamline didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Hamline competed in an all D1 race last weekend, which makes it difficult to compare them to the rest of the MIAC. Also, Les Bolstad is such a challenging course you can’t learn much from their times. Their top 3, Benitez, Gustafson, and Mehrhof, ran well. They are going to be hurt by not having a low stick, but if their top 5 can all finish close to the top 25, I think they can finish 3rd.”

Bethel (131 points)

Bethel had good performances from Hatton and Lelinga on Saturday, but Bethke, their #2 from their last meet, didn’t run. If Bethke is healthy or someone else steps up, they will be in the running for 3rd.

St. John’s (145 points)

St. John’s didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Last week I wondered if St. John’s would be able to reload with a strong freshman class. It looks like they have. Their 4th and 5th runners at Luther, Bartels and Colleran, are both freshmen. I was also impressed by the performances of their top 3, Burgstahler, Collins, and Lamb. The Johnnies have historically outdone expectations at MIAC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish 3rd.”

St. Thomas (156 points)

St. Thomas didn’t race this weekend. Here are my comments from last week:

“Wachter had a great breakout race last weekend, and established himself as a potential top 15 runner. That was the only standout performance for the Tommies, but they have strong depth as usual. Rosenau was the biggest disappointment, but if he can get back to where he was last spring, St. Thomas could push for top 3.”

Macalester (179 points)

Mac’s top 2, Doherty and Boranian, ran poorly at River Falls last week, but they showed significant improvement at St. Olaf. Another good race from Lepak gives them a solid top 3, but I don’t think they have enough depth to compete for top 3.

Gustavus (183 points)

What a weird team. The Gusties had just an 11 second spread from 1-5 and 18 seconds from 1-7. Right now it looks like those seven will be in the 30s at MIAC, which would probably put them in the bottom half of the MIAC. However, Gustavus could end up 3rd if four or five of them get into the 20s.

Concordia (207 points)

Concordia ended up moving down from 8th to 9th in my rankings, but that was mostly a result of Macalester improving from last week, not Concordia running poorly. Isahak and Wicklund ran well again for Concordia, and they both could be top 25. Unfortunately, they don’t have the depth to compete for top 5.

St. Mary’s (264 points)

O’Hare had a strong race on Saturday and I expect him to be top 10 at MIAC, which should keep St. Mary’s out of the basement. However, it looks like he will be the only bright spot this season.

Augsburg (358 points)

Augsburg only ran five runners on Saturday. Honestly this makes me sad. I know teams have down years, but no team in this conference should be this bad. Every team should be able to at least field a full team and have a chance to compete.

Looking forward to your comments and feedback. I’m working on another project that I’m hoping to post later today, if not within a few days.

Don't like my rankings? Fix them!

http://www.ranker.com/list/miac-cc-2017/1505664071131