MIAC XC 2017

This seems reasonable

Low T wrote:

St. Mary's doesn't have WiFi

Wrong

First things first this, is super awesome that you put the time into doing this. It was an enticing read. However, I think you may need to remove those freshman goggles. I get it, its always fun writing about something new. But instead of fantasizing about the seven freshman you have in your top 25, how about checking out the new freshman walking around your campus. Unless your at Carleton.... then maybe drive over to St. Olaf. I'm being honest. I looked back at the MIAC conference championships until 2010. During the span of those seven years there have been a total of 16 freshman to place in the top 25, and no year had more than three place in the top 25.

2016 2015

Cameron Meikle Ephraim Bird

Jack Henschel

Sam Bell

2014 2013

Donson Jacob Gerhartz

Paul Timm

Keith Katola

2012 2011

Jake Campbell Grant Wintheiser

Calvin Lehn Joe Giamberdino

Tommy Feichtinger Matt Berens

2010

NONE

Of these 16 names only two of them placed in the top ten. Those two fine gentlemen were Donson and Grant Wintheiser. The top finish from these folks was 6th, and that was Grant Wintheiser. I mean I get that the "MIAC is weak", but do we honestly think it is that weak that we have two freshman crack the top five. Let's cool our jets boys. No one has yet to run an 8k, and to be honest freshman usually blow at them their first year. This isn't ESPN we don't need your hot take. So please, sit down.

^guys got his fact checker on. Everyone knows that freshmen come in unprepared for collegiate running and collegiate lifestyle. There are some exceptional freshmen that are prepared, as noted in the post above. Theoretically, if we were going to put money on runner's would you rather put it on the guy who hasn't competed in that distance before or a guy who's proven? It's Floyd and Mcgregor all over again. Freshmen might come in and make a splash, but the experienced will eventually prevail.

Thanks for your hot take Stephen A Smith!

Mueller and Wilkinson went 25:58 and 26:02 today at River Falls...they're looking pretty damn good. Maybe there's a chance for top 5 after all

Geeezzzz wrote:

Mueller and Wilkinson went 25:58 and 26:02 today at River Falls...they're looking pretty damn good. Maybe there's a chance for top 5 after all

This year? Yeah.

Mueller will for sure peak early. Depends on weather or not he can hold it out.

All I see is a lack of a 5th runner and extended depth.

Tris Dodge continues to be the most unreliable runner of all time. And if he, or any of their other top 5 has a bad day at conference, it could cost them the conference championship.

I am very impressed with their freshman, though. With the lack of top level depth in the MIAC this year Wilkinson and Mueller could feasibly be top 10, or even top 5. 

Think about it. Last year there were only 2 runners who consistently broke 26 minutes in the 8k. Joe Coffey and Ryan Bugler. Otherwise, the next couple of finishers were pretty much mid to low 26:00 runners.

Wilkinson and Mueller, assuming they aren't peaking too early, are on a trajectory to finish in the top 10.

It seems as though the teams that lost the most last year are going to be saved by their freshmen.

Gustavus and Saint John's

Oles run the old 5k

http://www.fastfinishtiming.com/2017RoadandCC/17Results/AlumniMensFinishList.htm

Jacob Egger and Calvin Lehn are still in good shape I see. Are they joining the infamous Collegeville track team, too?

I don't think either of them are. Word is Evan Jones and Thomas Knobbe are, though. So has Maxwell Kuzara from Saint John's. Not sure what other recent grads are doing now running-wise.

D3 in our loins wrote:

Oles run the old 5k

http://www.fastfinishtiming.com/2017RoadandCC/17Results/AlumniMensFinishList.htm

You really can never read into the Ole's alumni 5k results. The results and every runner's performance there is so sporadic. Joe Coffey won it last year in 16:06. This year there were 2 alumni, a sophomore, and two average runners who ran faster than that.

If we were to trust these results, then Henschel (who I actually think will be top 5 at MIACs this year) is on the same level as Jake Brown or Paul Escher, who both ran similar times around their sophomore and junior year. They were both all-americans in cross country those years (not Jake Browns senior year, though..) and top 15 in the nation.

All-in-all, those are fast times, but one cannot put stock in them.

D3 in our loins wrote:

Oles run the old 5k

http://www.fastfinishtiming.com/2017RoadandCC/17Results/AlumniMensFinishList.htm

Looks like William Anderson and Berhe did not run in this

How did you figure that out? I'm still trying to read the name of the first finisher.

WEEK 2 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1

1. Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2

2. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

3. Matt Wilkinson, Carleton

4. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

5. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

6. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

7. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

Tier 3

8. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

9. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

10. Evan Hatton, Bethel

11. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

12. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

13. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf

14. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

15. Tris Dodge, Carleton

Tier 4

16. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

17. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

18. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

19. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

20. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

21. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

22. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

23. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

Tier 5

24. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

25. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

26. Munir Isahak, Concordia

27. Jake Lepak, Macalester

28. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

29. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

30. Sam Primozich, St. Olaf

31. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

32. Ryley Sandberg, Gustavus

33. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

34. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

35. James Doherty, Macalester

36. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

37. David Huffman, Bethel

38. Andrew Wischnack, Gustavus

39. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

40. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

41. Connor Haugen, Bethel

42. Josh Halverson, Bethel

43. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

44. Andy Barnhart, Bethel

45. Spencer Urick, St. Thomas

46. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf

47. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

Tier 6

48. Matthew Bartels, St. John’s

49. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

50. Chris Boranian, Macalester

51. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

52. Nick Solheim, Concordia

53. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

54. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s

55. Justin Brakob, St. John’s

56. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

57. Erik Larson, Concordia

Tier 7

58. George McGivern, St. Thomas

59. Ben Roen, Hamline

60. Brendan Johnson, Concordia

61. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

62. Collin Hartogh, Hamline

63. Edwin Reyes-Herrera, Macalester

Tier 8

64. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

65. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

66. Sean O’Donnell-Huff, Macalester

Tier 9

67. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

68. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

69. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s

70. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

71. Alex Gordon, Macalester

72. Jon Meaden, St. Mary’s

Tier 10

73. Isaac Olsem, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Gregory Miller, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

Carleton (33 points)

I am willing to acknowledge that I may have been too optimistic about this year’s freshmen and their ability to quickly transition to 8k, but it looks like Mueller and Wilkinson are exceptions. There is still a strong possibility that one or both of them will peak too early and not perform well in the championships, but for now I have them ranked 2nd and 3rd. Meikle didn’t race at River Falls, but he ran well the week before. Dodge didn’t run well at River Falls, but he has bounced back from bad races before. There is still a strong possibility that he finishes top 10 in the MIAC. Everything will need to be perfect for Carleton if they are going to beat St. Olaf.

St. Olaf (35 points)

Henschel, Ketola, and Lerdall ran well at their alumni 5k last weekend. Timm was farther back, but he has historically peaked well for MIAC, so I still believe he could finish as high as 2nd. William Anderson and Alex Berhe didn’t race, which left the Oles without their usual depth. If either of those two can get close to the rest of the top four, or if someone else steps up, they should be able to hold off Carleton. Although my individual predictions indicate that Carleton should be favored right now, I would pick St. Olaf to win. St. Olaf has more room for error, and their top runners are more consistent. Carleton, on the other hand, needs all five of their top runners to hit in order to win.

Hamline (115 points)

Hamline competed in an all D1 race last weekend, which makes it difficult to compare them to the rest of the MIAC. Also, Les Bolstad is such a challenging course you can’t learn much from their times. Their top 3, Benitez, Gustafson, and Mehrhof, ran well. They are going to be hurt by not having a low stick, but if their top 5 can all finish close to the top 25, I think they can finish 3rd.

Bethel (127 points)

Bethel didn’t race this weekend. Here are last week’s comments:

“Bethel should be right there with St. Thomas pushing for 3rd. Their X-factor is Andy Barnhart. He ran 8:48 in the 3k and 15:27 in the 5k but ran poorly in Bethel’s first meet of the year. If he can get into the top 15, I think Bethel could place 3rd.”

St. John’s (142 points)

Last week I wondered if St. John’s would be able to reload with a strong freshman class. It looks like they have. Their 4th and 5th runners at Luther, Bartels and Colleran, are both freshmen. I was also impressed by the performances of their top 3, Burgstahler, Collins, and Lamb. The Johnnies have historically outdone expectations at MIAC, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they finish 3rd.

Gustavus (149 points)

Gustavus won’t have their low sticks that they’ve had in past years, but they should have strong depth. They have 7 runners that I predicted would finish in the top 40, and I wouldn’t be surprised if any of them ended up in the top 30. If five of them can do that, they could be 3rd.

St. Thomas (152 points)

Wachter had a great breakout race last weekend, and established himself as a potential top 15 runner. That was the only standout performance for the Tommies, but they have strong depth as usual. Rosenau was the biggest disappointment, but if he can get back to where he was last spring, St. Thomas could push for top 3.

Concordia (222 points)

Concordia is much better than past years. Wicklund and Isahak both have a chance to be top 25, and their 3-5 shouldn’t be too far behind. There’s no reason to expect anything special from them this year, but they should continue to improve the next few years.

Macalester (231 points)

Mac looks very similar to Concordia this year. They have a few runners who could be top 25, and their depth isn’t too bad. However, it won’t be enough to keep them out of the bottom half of the MIAC.

St. Mary’s (259 points)

St. Mary’s didn’t race this weekend. Here are last week’s comments:

“O’Hare is going to rescue St. Mary’s from the basement of the MIAC, but it looks like he will be the only bright spot.”

Augsburg (351 points)

Augsburg didn’t race this weekend. Honestly I’m shocked that you’re still reading this.

Cause Berhe and Anderson were the top 2 nonsenior St Olaf finishers at the MIAC championships last year

Nationally, St. Olaf is 16 and Carleton is 35.

Regionally, Saint John's has entered the top 10 and is sitting in 9th. Are they the third best team in the conference right now?

Carleton vs St Olaf vs ??? at St Olaf on Saturday.....Who else is running there?

Also on the women's side is fairing much better. 14-17-23 nationally and 1-2-3 in the region for St Olaf, St Thomas, and Carleton, respectively. 6 of the top 10 central teams are MIAC.