MIAC XC 2017

#MoMoWillRise.

I saw an Ole cut a corner on an easy/recovery run. The decline is coming...

I heard Donson is out for a little bit. Lets hope he can get back to defeat those runners from Augsburg.

Inside rumor is MoMo has returned to Somalia and plans on returning to compete in the MIAC under a new name

Rumor mills wrote:

I heard Donson is out for a little bit. Lets hope he can get back to defeat those runners from Augsburg.

Out for a bit, like a small nagging calf injury? Or something a bit more serious? This could make the MIAC race a bit more interesting.

The plot thickens wrote:

Rumor mills wrote:

I heard Donson is out for a little bit. Lets hope he can get back to defeat those runners from Augsburg.

Out for a bit, like a small nagging calf injury? Or something a bit more serious? This could make the MIAC race a bit more interesting.

I heard from a teammate with knowledge of the situation that it's a stress fracture. Carleton is DONE

If Donson is indeed out, could a surprise team like Hamline, St. Thomas or Gustavus challenge for top 2?

Tis thicc indeed wrote:

The plot thickens wrote:

Out for a bit, like a small nagging calf injury? Or something a bit more serious? This could make the MIAC race a bit more interesting.

I heard from a teammate with knowledge of the situation that it's a stress fracture. Carleton is DONE

I bet he misses 2 races max.

Thoughts on Regional Rankings?

CentralRegionBros wrote:

Thoughts on Regional Rankings?

It all looks about right to me. What surprised me most was seeing the Midwest conference have so many ranked in the top 10. It is becoming pretty even across the board with the IAAC, MIAC, and Midwest conferences being competitive in the region. There were a few names missing that were odd not to see. Take Saint John's, they have the conference's longest streak of finishing top 8 at regions (33 straight years). They aren't even ranked this year.

At least this is what I observed from the men's side.

I was curious to see Olaf's women be the number 1 ranked team in the region, but I suppose they return quite a few runners and much of the top talent comes from individuals on weak teams. A bit more wide open on the women's side.

4 of Gustavus' top 7 were freshman at Crown. Doesn't bode terribly well for this season.. but, they didn't look too bad against Wartburg who is rather good. Then again, they only barely beat St. Thomas' B team...

Am I over reading this? All I can read into are the results I see on TFRRS. It's only September 1st, I need to stop overthinking these things.

https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/11992.html

Carleton's freshman are, well, really good...

Donson looked okay, he wasn't that far off his time there from his sophomore year.

http://www.goaugie.com/documents/2017/9/1//Twilight.pdf

led by freshman wrote:

Carleton's freshman are, well, really good...

Donson looked okay, he wasn't that far off his time there from his sophomore year.

http://www.goaugie.com/documents/2017/9/1//Twilight.pdf

So no stress fracture for Donson then?

CoffeyFan wrote:

led by freshman wrote:

Carleton's freshman are, well, really good...

Donson looked okay, he wasn't that far off his time there from his sophomore year.

http://www.goaugie.com/documents/2017/9/1//Twilight.pdf

So no stress fracture for Donson then?

I guess not? Maybe he had one towards the end of the track season and was still able to put some mileage in before the cross country season?

All speculation at this point unless he comes out and tells us straight forward.

led by freshman wrote:

4 of Gustavus' top 7 were freshman at Crown. Doesn't bode terribly well for this season.. but, they didn't look too bad against Wartburg who is rather good. Then again, they only barely beat St. Thomas' B team...

Am I over reading this? All I can read into are the results I see on TFRRS. It's only September 1st, I need to stop overthinking these things.

https://www.tfrrs.org/results/xc/11992.html

I'm pretty sure they were missing a few runners too. I know Gilbertson and Kerbeshian are one of GACs top freshman. They are probably just holding them out in early season race. Also didn't see Alex Wischnack in results either. In the results it may seem they got destroyed by Wartburg but they were not far off time wise. Other than their top 2 runners that will go top 10 at regions most likely. I think GAC could get top 4 in MIACs this year.

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

I have divided runners into tiers. Within each tier, I could see these runners finishing in any order.

Tier 1:

Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

I can’t see Donson getting beat. His race this weekend shows that he has the endurance to win, and he’s already established that he has the finishing speed and the tactics to beat anyone.

Tier 2:

2. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

3. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

Mueller finished a few seconds behind Donson this weekend, so I put him second. If he can keep improving throughout the season he could get 2nd, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Timm and a few of the other Oles beat him.

Tier 3:

4. Matt Wilkinson, Carleton

5. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

6. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

7. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

Wilkinson didn’t run as well as expected this weekend, but his performances in high school indicate that he is good enough to push for top 3. The 3 Oles all had very good track seasons and I could see any of them getting 2nd if they continue to improve and everything breaks right for them.

Tier 4:

8. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

9. Alex Berhe, St. Olaf

10. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

11. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

12. Liban Jama, St. Olaf

13. Mac Doherty, Macalester

14. Evan Hatton, Bethel

15. Tris Dodge, Carleton

16. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

17. William Anderson, St. Olaf

18. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

19. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

20. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

This tier is mostly made up of runners who I have questions about I could see either placing much higher or much lower. Some (Berhe, Rosenau, Doherty, etc.) have only had one great season and haven’t shown that they can repeat it. Others (Dodge, Anderson, etc.) are very inconsistent. Finally, there are a few very accomplished high school runners (Jima, Stumbo, Lelinga, Gilbertson) who will have to show that they are ready to transition to 8k. I could see any of these runners pushing for top 5, but I could also wouldn’t be shocked to see them in the 30s or 40s.

Tier 5:

21. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

22. Munir Isahak, Concordia

23. Chris Boranian, Macalester

24. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

25. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

26. Allen-Michael Burback, St. Thomas

27. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

28. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

29. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

30. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

31. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas

32. Sean Topel, Carleton

33. Daniel Mahota, St. Thomas

34. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas

35. David Huffman, Bethel

36. Riley Sandberg, Gustavus

37. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

38. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

39. George McGivern, St. Thomas

40. Nolan Ebner, Macalester

41. Connor Haugen, Bethel

42. Josh Halverson, Bethel

43. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

44. Andy Barnhart, Bethel

45. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

Tier 6:

46. Bridger Pavelka, Gustavus

47. Henry Boettcher, St. John’s

48. Hans Frank-Holznes, Concordia

49. Adrian Johnson, Macalester

50. Samuel Cruz, St. John’s

51. Andrew Wischnack, Gustavus

52. James Mathison, St. John’s

53. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

54. Eric Wicklund, Concordia

55. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

56. Sam Jewson, Hamline

Tier 7:

57. Dan Allen, St. John’s

58. Ben Roen, Hamline

59. Nick Solheim, Concordia

60. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

61. Connor Haugrud, Concordia

62. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

Tier 8:

63. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

64. Eddy Reyes Herrera, Macalester

65. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

66. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

Tier 9:

67. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s

68. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

69. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

70. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s

71. Mark Baumeister, Macalester

72. Jon Meaden, St. Mary’s

Tier 10:

73. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

74. William McLeer, Augsburg

75. Gregory Miller, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

St. Olaf (30 points)

Although they aren’t as strong as they were in past years, St. Olaf is still the clear favorite. Their greatest strength is their depth. Even if one or two of their top five have a bad day, will still be in the top 20 and pushing for top 10. I will be interested to see if Berhe can get back to where he was last CC season and finish in the top 5 again.

Carleton (33 points)

If everything goes right for Carleton, I think they could pull off the upset. Donson is practically a lock for the win, and their two freshmen, Mueller and Wilkinson, could both be top 5. Meikle and Dodge will be the difference-makers for them. They both have huge upside, but they are also very inconsistent. Dodge is one of the most inconsistent runners I have ever seen. He ran 16:12 in his first 5k of the outdoor season, but he came back and ran 15:05 two weeks later. Carleton’s issue is their lack of depth. If any of their top 5 is even a little bit off at MIAC, they’re done. But if they all hit, they could knock off the Oles.

St. Thomas (134 points)

If Rosenau builds on his breakout track season, he’ll be a great asset for St. Thomas. After Rosenau, they don’t have any standouts, but they always have excellent depth. If their 2-5 can finish in the top 30, they should be able to finish 3rd.

Bethel (135 points)

Bethel should be right there with St. Thomas pushing for 3rd. Their X-factor is Andy Barnhart. He ran 8:48 in the 3k and 15:27 in the 5k but ran poorly in Bethel’s first meet of the year. If he can get into the top 15, I think Bethel could place 3rd.

Gustavus (136 points)

Gustavus obviously took a hit losing their top 3 from last year to graduation, but they partially reloaded with two talented freshmen in Stumbo and Gilbertson. If those two make a smooth transition to 8k and place in the top 15, the Gusties could be top 3. If they struggle, however, I wouldn’t be surprised if they finished as low as 7th.

Hamline (153 points)

Right now, it looks like Hamline is on the outside of the top 5 looking in. However, I think they have the chance to finish in the top 3. They have a solid pack of four runners, so they just need a fifth. Sam Jewson could be that difference-maker for them. He ran some great 800s this spring, and if he makes similar improvements in cross country, Hamline could sneak into the top 3.

Macalester (188 points)

Before I started researching, I thought that Mac could be in the mix for top 5 this year. But according to their roster, Henry Harper is no longer on the team, which is a big hit for them. Without Harper, they lack of depth is going to be exposed and will place them in the bottom half of the MIAC.

St. John’s (214 points)

Based on results from last fall and spring, it looks like St. John’s is going to struggle this year. Their 2017 roster is not online yet, so it remains to be seen if they can reload with freshmen or transfers. I don’t expect the Johnnies to be in the top 5 this year, but they always seem to reload and outperform expectations at MIAC.

Concordia (236 points)

Concordia’s upperclassmen are nothing to brag about, but they do have a surprisingly strong incoming class, which they will be counting on to adjust quickly to the 8k. I certainly don’t expect this to be a great year for them, but if their freshmen can develop and they continue to bring in strong classes, the future is bright.

St. Mary’s (254 points)

O’Hare is going to rescue St. Mary’s from the basement of the MIAC, but it looks like he will be the only bright spot.

Augsburg (351 points)

I wish I had something nice or interesting to say about Augsburg...let’s move on.

Wow.

I actually really enjoyed this. It is refreshing for people to go in-depth like this every once in a while as opposed to people making outlandish predictions for themselves or their teammates.

I personally wouldn't have put that much stock in the freshmen, but with the MIAC being as diluted of talent as it is of late, the freshmen could have a very significant impact across the board.

I believe you are missing some key runners. Maybe a few runners that

I think could easily be top 30 material. I really liked the thought behind this post. After looking at Carleton's meet in Sioux Falls I think they could win MIACs this year. I don't see St. Thomas getting 3rd and most likely getting 5th. Bethel and GAC are at around the same ability level but Bethel has mid-streghth and GAC has distance runners for the most part. Which one will be better for 8k's? Concordia I think is a sleeper. But again, its only a week in the season.