MIAC XC 2017

Both should benefit from each class, even if they are freshman. Gustavus will feel the biggest impact given that they lost a lot of talent, but Carleton's class could give them that extra depth they need to contest with the top 2 spots.

Carleton and Macalaster have their 2017 Rosters up.

The freshmen are certainly promising at Carleton. 15:31, 16:08, 16:13 XC 5ks

I leave the rest of the observation and speculation up to you guys. Just thought you should know how bored I am on a Saturday afternoon.

word on the street ( from someone on the st.olaf team) is they managed to get BERHE back.... that's another weapon on their arsenal

skjgvbiuosdn wrote:

word on the street ( from someone on the st.olaf team) is they managed to get BERHE back.... that's another weapon on their arsenal

He's not even good. I gave him a beating in high school. Once he gets into a slump, he can never get out. True fact.

With Berhe back there is no way they lose MIACs. Too much depth, now.

bring him back wrote:

With Berhe back there is no way they lose MIACs. Too much depth, now.

If a team having "depth" depends on one person then the team is not deep.

I'm not saying that Olaf isn't deep, I'm just commenting on your usage of depth.

Don't sleep on Gustavus or Carleton this year. Should be closer than everyone is expecting. Gotta respect the talent they are getting.

You can never count out every team before the season has even started. But Olaf is the favorite.

Don't sleep wrote:

Don't sleep on Gustavus or Carleton this year. Should be closer than everyone is expecting. Gotta respect the talent they are getting.

No chance on earth Gustavus loses Jones, Knobbe, Dammann, Speca, and both Fredrickson (that's their 1,2,3,5, and 6) and breaks even with the freshmen.

Carleton isn't going to beat them either, but I get why someone would bet on them. They have the 1-3 guys to match St Olaf's. 4 and 5 will be freshmen, and they'll be up against like 26:30 guys, right? I don't like those odds.

Berhe, Ketola, Lerdall, Timm, Bakken, Anderson, and Henschel

vs

Cook-Gallardo, Meikle, Dodge, Nakajima, Wilkinson (Fr), Mueller (Fr), Topel (Fr)

Carleton has a chance, but it's gonna take some big improvements from Dodge and Meikle (or however you spell it). We bag on PT's race strategy, but both of those kids ran like idiots during indoor and outdoor. Dodge tried to run an honest XC championship race, but got roasted by the big(ger) dogs half way through. Then they paced the favorites in the 3k and 5k (outdoor) through easy splits and got murdered. They need to wise up. Olaf has greater than a 90% chance to win. If Berhe is actually back and in somewhat decent shape, the Oles are going to run away with it.

Gusties can't overcome losing the Iowans and Dammann. Gustavus also typically doesn't flip Freshman around that quickly. None of those three were great their first year. Gustavus will be very good in a year or two though. They might luck out and get fourth this year.

Mac could actually be really talented this year. I would love to see their sophomores and juniors carry them to a high finish.

Mac has no incoming studs. Nolan Ebner is apparently running cc again. Henry Harper is noticeably absent from the roster. Transferring? Not good for the Kilts.

The problem is that Meikle and Dodge aren't Hart. They could turn out to be just as good someday, but they don't have the same skill sets. If they work on general fitness and speed along with more adaptive racing strategies, MIAC's will be much more contested. They can't just be another Tesema/MoMo and get outclassed by smarter racers, though.

Yea St John's is done. Poor incoming class and no returning guys under 26. Weak.

First, random that you picked out Saint John's. I don't think any of us were even arguing as to whether or not they would be good.

That said, I want to agree with you, but I and the rest of the people on this board have picked them to do poorly the past 5 years excluding maybe 2014. They have only had one runner under 26 every year for those 5 seasons. And outside of Feitchinger, Bugler, and that one guy who lost his shoe at nationals a few years back, they never have a low stick or great cross country runner.

I have no idea how, but they always seems to pull something out of their a**es and finish in the top 3/4.

Either they run out of their minds at conference, or a few key runners sh*t the bed and cost their team a good placing (i.e. St. Thomas in 2015).

That said, they, like Gustavus, lose a lot of talent. Lost 4 of their top 7. Had 2 freshman on their team during track..just 2... So I would wager that after this season they do poorly for about 3 seasons until they revamp.

What do you all think?

How do you know that their incoming class is poor? Roster isn't up, yet..

They return some decent athletes, and are in a good position despite losing key runners.

Tremayne Collins was 9th last year and is the second top returning runner behind Berhe. and with PT and Donson being the favorites coming in, I would say that top 4 is a safe bet for him. Also performed well on the track (8th in 10k) despite what other posters on this board say was a season plagued by mono and low iron. It'll be interesting to see if this affects his fitness for cross.

Their number 2 guy will be Matthew Burgstahler. Not sure if any of you remember him, but he was the one everyone was hyping up in the steeple because his first few looked so good in sh*tty conditions. Looking at his TFRRS, he must have been hurt for cross country, and abroad for the track seasons. He managed to run three races last fall.

LAX - 27:23 (72)

MIAC - 27:02 (26)

Regionas - 26:45 (65)

And he is the 12th top returner for MIAC last fall. With his past success on the track and on the grass, I'd say top 15 isn't a stretch for him.

That is two top 15 runners. That is a good start for the Johnnies. After that is a pretty big drop off, though..

Someone posted this earlier (3rd page), with Berhe, PT, Ketola, and Donson not accounted for, the Johnnies look like this:

Saint John’s – 138 (238)

1 - Tremayne Collins – SO

11 - Matthew Burgstahler – JR

33 – Daniel Zoltek – JR

41 – Henry Boettcher – SO

48 – James Mathison – SO

49 – Dan Allen – SO

55 – Kevin Lamb -SO

This looks like a 4/5th place team to me. The top two create enough of a cushion to compensate for the lack of talent behind them.

Something that's interesting is that if Cook-Gallardo had run and WON last year Carleton would have saved 50 points but only moved up from 5th to 4th!

The fact that Carleton is now looking to get top 2 now speaks to the potential of their top 3 as well as the lack of depth in the MIAC (if no one improves). Really the front of the race could be 4 to 8 St Olaf guys and 3 to 7 Carleton guys duking it out for single spots. The only person looking to break that up (right now) is Collins.

The best returner from the other schools and their MIAC time last year:

Augsburg: Ryan Moore-29:29

Bethel: Evan Hatton-27:05

Concordia: Erick Wicklund-27:39

Gustavus: Alex Wischnack-26:57

Hamline: Sam Bell-27:02

Macalester: Chris Boranian-27:32

St Mary's: Austin O'Hare-27:18

St Thomas: Parker Rosenau 26:57

Not sure if any alumni or senior runners can comment on this, but can anyone remember a time when the MIAC was so dominated by two teams like (potentially) this season?

Carleton and Olaf should very much be on a different level than the rest of the MIAC, which we all must admit, has now been watered down significantly from years past.

St Olaf went 1,2,3,4,6 my freshman year (2014). Basically them and Hart Hornor.

Pretty sure the gap between 2-3 is going to be smaller than people think. Yes Olaf and Carleton are almost certainly going to go 1, 2 but St. John's top 2 are solid and they always show up as well as St Thomas always being annoyingly decent as of late. Also gustavus does lose a lot but they are getting a better incoming class than Carleton even. Freshmen don't normally contribute in a big way but they have a good enough incoming class that they should keep them honest. That being said this will be a very weak year for the MIAC. I predict it goes something like this

Olaf>>Carleton>gustavus/st John's>>bethel/st Thomas/Mac>>>>rest of the conference>>>>>>>>>Augsburg