MIAC XC 2017

All is fair with Henry wrote:

Normally this would be the part where we go, "Hey Henry" because of the self-plug here.

But Henry Harper did have a pretty darn good first year. Especially on the track. Mac could have something here.

Let's not forget that the Mac school record in the 5k is a 15:12.

Mac has a few quality 15 guys, but nothing ever seems to materialize on the grass. Seems like all THOSE hill REPEATS don't WORK out.

My way to early preseason predictions

1) St. Olaf - Good core of guys still remain. Will be hard to beat. Experience matters.

2) Carleton - They will have a solid team with a good top 3, but will need to find a solid 4 and 5 guy to be able to compete with St. Olaf. They might get that with the supposed good freshman coming in, but that is not always a given. 8K is a different beast and can take a season or two to adjust even for high school studs.

3) St. Thomas - They return a lot of guys. Will have a good pack, but no high sticks. Enough to win the battle for 3rd. Not enough to challenge for the win.

4) Hamline - Will have a solid top 4 comparable to St. Thomas' pack, but lacking a 5th man.

5) St. Johns - St. Johns and Bethel are neck and neck. Taking St. Johns here.

6) Bethel

7) Gustavus - They lost a lot of talent. You can't rely on your freshman to carry the team.

8) Macalester

9) Concordia

10) St. Marys - For the upset.

11) Augsburg

macpac wrote:

[quote]All is fair with Henry wrote:

Let's not forget that the Mac school record in the 5k is a 15:12.

To be fair, Mac's indoor 5k record is 15:12, but the outdoor record is a respectable 14:29

I think a freshman will win the title this year... just comes outta no where. I don't think a freshman has ever won the MIAC!

I just really don't think that happens unless the race goes out slow, and I don't imagine that happening.

Think about it this way, most of the talented freshman coming in have run what for cross country? At the best case scenario 15's. Now even if we were to say they improve a lot over the two track season their senior, which is reasonable, that still might only put someone in the low 15's (If some high school senior is breaking 15:00, he isn't running for the MIAC). Runners like Paul Timm have run at a similar pace for a 10k, which is doubled the distance. Do you really think an incoming freshman will be able to beat other runners who can run their 5k PR back-to-back in a 10k? It just isn't reasonable.

This stands true across most conferences across all divisions. It is rare even in the D1 ranks for a true freshman to come in and win conference unless they are a bona fide star.

Even with a lot of the MIACs stars being gone now, it is rather disrespectful to assume a freshman will come in a beat a bunch of well-established runners.

I think a freshman will win the title this year... just comes outta no where. I don't think a freshman has ever won the MIAC!

We get your point. Don't need to say it twice. And that won't happen...

I think a freshman will win the title this year... just comes outta no where. I don't think a freshman has ever won the MIAC!

My first inclination is to say that Paul Timm will win the conference at MIAC this fall. This is due to his PRs from this past track season and his past cross country success.

BUT, his performances on the track are the reason why I will NOT pick him to win. It seems as though he holds the belief that he is more fit than everyone else, and that he can just run away from them. As we've seen, this is not what happens. He isn't a Grant Wintheiser who can just insert an injection of pace and not have to worry about the rest of the field anymore. What normally happens is either he makes a silly move and dies a bit at the end of the race to get passed, or, he picks up the pace which drops all but a few other guys, and those other guys outkick him at the end.

Rather, I anticipate him or someone else pushing the pace upfront with a solid pack of about 5 behind them until the last 1k or so before someone makes the push for home and drops him.

Fun fact, he has never placed higher than 16th at a cross country meet at the collegiate level (via TFRRS). Though, he has won about 3 track races before.

Are we just ripping on people who won't win? Someone do me next!

What's your name and I'll get right to it, cuh

It is either that or we all just blow Donson on these boards for like 3 months until he wins.

Friendly reminder that all future top 15 finishers of the 2017 MIAC Cross Country Championships will be in bed at 10:00 tonight.

Don't blow your season: Fire-work responsibly!

Even if PT races the way he did in the 10k and cross country, he should end up getting second, assuming he is healthy and puts in a good summer. Donny is the only guy I see being able to outclass him at the end of a race. PT absolutely broke the field in the 10k and only two guys held on to him out of a decent field in a really tactical race. Granted, he lost to a guy with a pretty good kick in the end, but he beat all of the other competition he has for the XC title this year. Unfortunately, Donson will need to only be in somewhat decent shape to win it all. If he's hurt or chilling until track, PT should have enough in him to beat the other Oles and Carlton's kids.

The only guy he broke was Calvin Lehn.

oh..me next! wrote:

It is either that or we all just blow Donson on these boards for like 3 months until he wins.

Clearly, DCG is the top returner in the Conference, and it's not close. That 5k this track season was also super impressive. But haven't his XC results always been pretty far behind his track results? 20th his Sophomore year, and then abroad last year. It's one thing for a talented 800/1500 guy to run an impressive 5k; it's another thing for a guy who has a lot of bounce on the track to slog through an XC race 10x his main distance.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying he can't win, and I'm definitely rooting for him! But isn't calling him the presumptive favorite a bit, well, presumptive?

on the country wrote:

oh..me next! wrote:

It is either that or we all just blow Donson on these boards for like 3 months until he wins.

Clearly, DCG is the top returner in the Conference, and it's not close. That 5k this track season was also super impressive. But haven't his XC results always been pretty far behind his track results? 20th his Sophomore year, and then abroad last year. It's one thing for a talented 800/1500 guy to run an impressive 5k; it's another thing for a guy who has a lot of bounce on the track to slog through an XC race 10x his main distance.

Don't get me wrong: I'm not saying he can't win, and I'm definitely rooting for him! But isn't calling him the presumptive favorite a bit, well, presumptive?

Look at his freshman year, though

So what are we looking at for new freshmen, who has the good new talent?

Sowhosnext wrote:

So what are we looking at for new freshmen, who has the good new talent?

You're late