MIAC XC 2017

Conference Video for you bubs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXLAM27oOVg

regional predictions?

The way I have the region going so far is:

Loras

They are so good this year...There is an off chance (though, not likely) that they put their top 5 in before the MIAC as a whole gets a second runner in. Donson can break up their 5.

Wartburg

Also very good this year. Their top 4 is more than capable and can run with anyone from any conference, for the most part.

Carleton

I only have Carleton here if they can duplicate their performance from conference. If all perform to that level, they really aren't too far from Wartburg, in all honesty (just my opinion, though). Again, I reiterate, they need everyone to show up here. Thankfully regionals is on their home course, though. That seemed to have helped them out quite a bit last year.

Nebraska Wesleyan

This was a tough one for me since I have a lot of faith in Olaf. Many would argue that Olaf should be here instead of Nebraska Wesleyan since Olaf beat them at LAX. That said, Nebraska was a 5th man away from beating Olaf. Nebraska should be able to do better than that since their #3 runner did not run at La Crosse. he ran 26:0x the last two 8ks he did this season, so that puts them ahead of Olaf. Like Carleton, though, if one of their 5 falters, they fall in the rankings.

Olaf

Their depth is good, no one can deny that. Lerdall and Ketola need some help up top, though. They can't carry the load alone. They really need Henschel or Paul Timm to regain past form and finish higher than they have the past few races. I have more faith in Paul Timm here more than Henschel since he has been more on an upswing and is a more experienced regional runner. If Timm can finish close to Lerdall and Ketola, they bridge the gap with Carleton and Nebraska more. Best case scenario, Paul Timm runs in the low 26's and one of Carleton and Nebraska Wesleyan's top 5 has a bad day. They can finish 3rd.

Cornell

If you want to talk about having 5th man problems...look at Cornell. Their top 4 was 32nd or better at LAX...their 5th was 141st.. that hurts. If they had a 5th man, they would be my 4 or 5. Their pack running is pretty impressive. Next year will be a very good year for them.

Saint John's

Low and behold! They pulled it off again. They put their top 5 in before St. Thomas' 3rd runner and could have finished better if their #2 runner, Collins, had run what is normally expected of him. The drop-off here in the region, between 6 and 7, if very steep. They just don't bring to the table what the top 6 teams do.

Grinnell

They are like a lesser version of Olaf. Very good depth, but no low sticks and as a whole they aren't amazing. They have enough depth to the point where if SJU faulters, then they can beat them. Otherwise, SJU's two low stick runners have them beat.

As for qualifying for nationals:

I have Carleton getting in barring their 5th man has a good race. Again, the difference from their 5th to 6th man was 41 seconds.. you can fit in a lot of other regional runners between that gap. They have enough at-large points with their wins against Stout (who was second at WIAC. HUGE points there) and Olaf. That said, they are hurt from their Running of the Cows home meet where they lost to plenty of unranked teams. Other than that race, they haven't lost to an unranked team from what I can see.

Olaf will likely stay in the rankings, but closer to 34th than 30. I couldn't track all of their wins versus ranked teams, but I do have them beating then #29 Nebraska Wesleyan. That helps. Them starting the season ranked as high as they were helps a lot, too. For some reason the committee always gives that a nod.

I say the region gets 4 in this year. We have had 4 teams ranked nationally this year for a good majority of the season, and those teams have largely performed as expected. The selection committee also took a ton of flak for not putting in Nebraska Wesleyan last year and instead put in some scrub team from the South that got like last place. I don't think they make that mistake again and push NW through. There is a chance we get 5 if the finish order is, right, though, and Olaf remains in the national rankings this week. If Olaf drops out of the rankings, then they hurt the region a bit.

Best case scenario is:

Loras

Wartburg

Nebraska Wesleyan

Olaf

Carleton

What I think will happen:

Loras

Wartburg

Carleton

Nebraska Wesleyan

I would agree that Carleton will make Nattys and not St. Olaf.

Individuals that make it from the MIAC will be: Lerdall, Stumbo, and Burgstahler. Maybe Ketola.

If Carleton finishes 5th in the region they likely will not qualify. The committee doesn't push teams into the national field in order to get a team that finished behind them at the regional meet in, so Carleton would not even be in the discussion until Nebraska Wesleyan and Olaf had been placed in the field based on their own merit. That's not a gamble I would want to take if I were a Carl. The best way for the Central Region to get 4 bids is Loras, Carleton, and Wartburg go 1-2-3 and NWU or Olaf finishes 4th, relatively close to 3rd, and sneaks in as one of the last 2-3 teams. I don't see any real way we get 5; maybe if 4th and 5th are separated by 1 or 2 points.

Seems as though I was on for the most part. They committee does seem to differ with me in regards to Nebraska Wesleyan, but I think their top 3/4 is good enough to compensate for lack of depth. They finished well in their conference meet, so I don't agree with them dropping 2 spots.

If they dropped this far in the regional rankings, that means they are out of the national rankings, which hurts.. Olaf will remain in the top 35 which is good, though.

If Augsburg gets beat by to any of the following:

Buena Vista

Crown

Northland

Northwestern (because they can't even field a full team)

North Central

They, like their counterparts in the Bundesliga, deserve to be relegated.

Loras is #7

Wartburg is #14

Carleton is #28

Olaf is #25

And Nebraska Wesleyan, which was #34 just dropped out of the rankings.

Nebraska Wesleyan dropping out hurts the region a little. This means that if they were to beat out Carleton or Olaf, there is a chance that either team wouldn't make it. None of those three teams have enough points to push the other in.

So, as a poster had above, I agree that we only get 4 teams in. Unless a few teams from around the country really, realllyyy crap the bed at regions and our finishes are perfect. In which case I still think 5 is possible.

Best case scenario is they finish as they are ranked, with Nebraska being only a few points behind Olaf.

Loras

Wartburg

Carleton

Olaf

Nebraska Wesleyan

There is still a chance that the selection committee is still getting flack from them screwing over Nebraska last year, so maybe we'll get lucky and they'll get the push in.

I still reminisce of the good 'ol days (just last year) with the grand duels between Donson and Coffey.. those were the days!

I still go back and watch ShittySpielberg's youtube videos of their races at indoor conference. 3 races, 3 incredible finishes. Awesome.

Any who, Carleton gets top 10 at nationals. You heard it here first.

Nobody is talking about the great Ole victory at Karhu? Sad! Oles perfect score the Carls, looks like conference was a fluke. I predict Oles win the regional title, the top five men hand in hand across the finish line.

For schools that are supposed to be good academically everyone on here is surprisingly ignorant of how teams get picked for the NCAA meet.

1. The national rankings have nothing to do with it. These come from the USTFCCCA not the NCAA committee. So a team being ranked early in the year or currently has no bearing on the selection.

2. At large bids come from beating teams in other regions that are on the bubble.

3. The central region will get 3 teams. 2 autos and Carleton if they are 3rd (no wins against anyone out of region but no bad losses either). St Olaf lost to the 7th ranked Midwest team meaning unless they are top 2 the committee won't take them unless all those Midwest teams are in. Nebraska Wesleyan hasn't done anything to show they deserve a bid either.

4. Before you go crazy in the great history of the central region realize that doesn't matter to the committee either. New England got 4 teams last year (same as the South) and the Atlantic got 6. Why? The Atlantic and South teams beat teams from other regions and the New England teams didn't. The New England 5th team prob deserved to go based on talent but they didnt follow the formula for selection.

Moral of the story: Know what it takes to make NCAAs and race at places that have ranked teams from other regions.

somethings still seems off though wrote:

I say the region gets 4 in this year. We have had 4 teams ranked nationally this year for a good majority of the season, and those teams have largely performed as expected. The selection committee also took a ton of flak for not putting in Nebraska Wesleyan last year and instead put in some scrub team from the South that got like last place. I don't think they make that mistake again and push NW through. There is a chance we get 5 if the finish order is, right, though, and Olaf remains in the national rankings this week. If Olaf drops out of the rankings, then they hurt the region a bit.

Haha, who did the NCAA selection committee take flak from? A bunch of central region letsrun fanboys?

Nebraska Wesleyan went to Paul Short last year and lost to Ithaca #9 in the Atlantic, Wesleyan #12 in New England, and Conn College #11 in New England. The reason they didn't get selected was because they didn't deserve it.

gl;hf tomorrow all

Anyone live streaming today? Plz...

My quick thoughts:

I thought Carleton had an awesome day and congrats to them. Way to represent the MIAC!

St. Olaf had a really rough day today. Lets hope they can stay strong for next year.

Johnnies were clutch as usual.

Tommies didn't do great or didn't bomb.

Gustavus had some great performances. They will be a fun team to watch in the future.

Bethel had an alright day. Nothing too bad though.

Hamline had some great low sticks that help them. They need more back runners.

MAC has been streaky all year.

Concordia didn't do too bad actually! Should be a top half team in the upcoming years.

Saint Mary's had their normal day.

Augsburg did beat some teams.

St. Olaf goes home DEVASTED!!!!

IIAC men showed very well. 4 of top 5. Four men’s teams on to the dance. Women 4?

Props to Carleton. Give credit where credit is due, this team has SHOWED UP this year when it matters. And it looks like Carleton wasn't even 100% judging on how every guy ran (Mueller was a bit further back than normal) so major upside for nationals. Prediction: Loras 6th, Carleton 9th, Wartburg 14th at nationals. Also no one ever talks about the women around here but Carleton's women with 6 underclassmen dominated the central region this year. Definitely a dynasty brewing down in Northfield with both men and women.

Not sure I would go so far to say that it is the beginning of an era at Carleton on the men's side. DCG by far their best runner and they don't have great depth, women's side might be a whole nother story. Certainly is the end of the era for the Olaf men's squad. Interested to see if Phil and Griff can sneak in another outstanding group before they decide to hang it up.

Well boys, really rough one. Have to give credit to Carleton & the IIAC. Only have one more video to make, and otherwise, see you all in track.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuATgekXHtY