With just a high of 37 degrees today, it's a cool one, but looks like the wind isn't bad.
Speaking of dark horse picks, after some brief excitement over Carleton's performance in Oregon, they seem to be underdogs again, not even making the national ranking. Fair enough, they do lack depth, and despite having some great teams, Carleton hasn't won conference since 2002. That year they surprisingly failed to qualify for nationals. Since then, however, they did field national qualifying teams five times, with their best performance an 8th place finish in 2004. The last time they were national champions was 1980.
For that reason I'd say they recognize this as a special opportunity and are hungry for it. With the lack of depth, there's no margin for error, but if all five guys put together a good race, they can take St. Olaf, and even have the potential of being a top 15 or even top 10 national team, where having three very fast runners counts for more.
St. Thomas and St. John's are looking solid for 3rd and 4th. Most would put Bethel, Hamline, Gustavus and Concordia next. However I'm going to propose a vote of confidence for underdogs Macalester for 5th, and possibly even challenge for 4th. I know they haven't shown anything special in their performances so far this season, but they have Coach Haugen. Haugen was the 1977 conference champ and 5th at nationals with St. Olaf. He was USOC triathlon coach of the year three times and coached four World Championships teams. After he came to Mac in 2003, they had four consecutive top four finishes.
With his 4:00/15:35 speed, Chris Boranian belongs in the top 15. Doherty (15:19), Lepak and Grant have been close together all season. If they'd been running tired through all the races, they should see a big improvement today. The big question is, can Jarka-Sellers, Johnson or Ebner lop off 60 to 90 seconds from their season best? That will be a big factor in determining whether Mac can finish 4th-5th.
One of the challenges in D3 is that no one reports anything significant in terms of who's injured. Aside from rumors, we're mostly in the dark, so we'll see who's healthy and who's not in a couple hours!
Today could be close. So how close was the most tightly contested title? As far as I can tell, it was when Hamline beat St. Olaf by 5 points in 2009, 61 to 66. The next closest would be St. John's over Hamline by 6 points in 2006.
Hamline 61 2009 | 23rd at Nationals, 496 pts
St. Olaf 66 2009 | 21st at Nationals, 477 pts
St. John's 35 2006 | 5th at Nationals, 234 pts
Hamline 41 2006 | 18th at Nationals, 471 pts
What's the lowest score achieved? Apparently that was St. John's in 1983, with just 13 points. I guess they only scored 4 runners then? Otherwise a perfect score could at best be 15. Either way, it was a strong team that went on to 5th at Nationals. Look at St. Thomas, just 51 pts at Nationals in 1986. That must be the most impressive performance by an MIAC team. Only Calvin and North Central have dominated with lower scores than that.
St. Olaf were underdogs when they upset North Central for the title in 2013. Returning 5 of their top 7 in 2014, they were arguably the ones to beat, as shown with that 16 pt score at conference. However, Jake Brown had a bad day and North Central reclaimed the throne. That was the race where Paul Timm and Keith Ketola gained valuable experience as their 6 & 7 as Freshman. Will their experience make a difference today?
St. John's 13 1983 | 6th at Nationals, 120 pts. Also 5th in 1982 and 2006, 4th in 1998
St. Olaf 16 2014 | 2nd at Nationals, 143 pts. Also 1st at Nationals in 2013, 84 pts
St. Thomas 19 1986 | 1st at Nationals, 51 pts.
St. Thomas 20 1985 | 5th at Nationals, 169 pts. Also 1st in 1984, 76 pts