MIAC XC 2017

Agreed, aside from Lerdall and Ketola there's probably nobody at Olaf with an ironclad hold on a regions team spot. If Henschel bombs at MIAC they probably shut him down, but my money's on him bouncing back.

1. Donson

2. Lerdall

3. Ketola

4. Wilkinson

5. Henschel

6. Mueller

The intrasquad competition for spots will put two other Oles in the 10-12 range, and they'll win.

I thought I may as well put mt rankings up here. Who doesn’t like to look more predictions?

I used the same runners as running oracle’s rankings. These are predictions for Conference! Not rankings.

Here they are:

1 .Donson Cook-Gallardo, Carleton SR

2. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s SR

3. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf JR

4. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf SR

5. Lucas Mueller, Carleton FR

6. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas SO

7. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s SR

8. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton FR

9. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus FR

10. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s JR

11. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf SO

12. Evan Hatton, Bethel JR

13. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel FR

14. George McGivern, St. Thomas SO

15. Andrew Plumb, St. Olaf JR

16. Paul Timm, St. Olaf SR

17. Frank Gustafson, Hamline FR

18. Tris Dodge, Carleton JR

19. Erik Wicklund, Concordia SO

20. Munir Isahak, Concordia FR

21. Cameron Meikle, Carleton SO

22. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus FR

23. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas JR

24. William Anderson, St. Olaf JR

25. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline JR

26. Seth Glidewell, St. Thomas JR

27. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton SR

28. Justin Furcich, St. Olaf JR

29. Chris Boranian, Macalester JR

30. Tyler Bethke, Bethel SO

31. Andrew Fritz, St. Thomas SR

32. Henry Boettcher, St. John’s SO

33. Adam Berkowitz, St. Thomas SR

34. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas FR

35. Nick Kerbeshian, Gustavus FR

36. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel JR

37. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus JR

38. Ryley Sandberg, Gustavus SR

39. Jake Lepak, Macalester SO

40. Andy Barnhart, Bethel SO

41. James Doherty, Macalester JR

42. David Huffman, Bethel SR

43. Dan Allen, St. John’s JR

44. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s JR

45. Jack Colleran, St. John’s FR

46. Fernando Benitez, Hamline SO

47. Connor Haugen, Bethel SR

48. Keegan Conrad, St. John’s JR

49. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia FR

50. Spencer Grant, Macalester JR

51. Sam Jewson, Hamline SR

52. Tony Duchenes, Hamline JR

53. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus FR

54. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s SR

55. Ben Madigan, Gustavus FR

56. Erik Larson, Concordia SR

57. Brandon Quibell, Concordia SR

58. Nick Solheim, Concordia SR

59. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton JR

60. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester SO

61. Anthony Paladie, Hamline SR

62. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s FR

63. Isaac Tade, Augsburg FR

64. Ben Roen, Hamline FR

65. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s SO

66. Ryan Moore, Augsburg SR

67. Jonathon Meaden, St. Mary’s FR

68. Nolan Ebner, Macalester SR

69. Adrian Johnson, Macalester FR

70. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s FR

71. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg JR

72. Connor Haugrud, Concordia FR

73. Tanner Moris, St. Mary’s FR

74. William McLeer, Augsburg FR

75. Greg Miller, Augsburg FR

76. Yasir Said, Augsburg JR

St. Olaf (49 points)

Carleton (53 points)

St. Thomas (100 points)

Bethel (131 points)

St. John’s (131 points)

Gustavus (141 points)

Hamline (191 points)

Concordia (202 points)

Macalester (219 points)

St. Mary’s (255 points)

Augsburg (349 points)

Summary:

The race between St. Olaf and Carleton will be REALLY close. It’s going to come down to how Henschel performs for St. Olaf and how Dodge performs for Carleton. Even though Henschel has had a few rough races, I still think he will be more clutch than Dodge will be.

I think all of us agree that St. Thomas has 3rd locked up. Karl Wachter has been great for them so far, and he will continue to be that low stick for them.

The race between Bethel and St. John’s is going to be so close that it will come down to their 6,7 runners or aka pushers. David Huffman from Bethel is going to be the hometown hero for them. But I would like to point out that Matthew Burgstahler is not going to play around at MIACs. He will be going for DCG and challenge him.

With Gustavus having their top runners as Freshman, that means they will have to act like veterans at this meet. I have been very impressed with Andrew Stumbo these last few meets. He will be top 10.

The difference between Concordia and Macalester is that Concordia has 2 runners in the top 20 (Erik Wicklund and Munir Isahak). This is where they will beat Macalester, they don’t have 2 low sticks.

St. Mary’s has Austin O’Hare who has been running great!

Augsburg will get last.

You know what? I actually don’t hate the Burgstahler pick. I’ve maintained the motion that he was quite talented for some time, now,

That said, I don’t think that he will “challenge Donson” as that seems a bit ludicrous for what he’s done so far.

I do think he has more capability than most of what has been displayed in the MIAC this year. He is for sure a top 5 talent. Just a matter of where in that range he falls. His only MIAC losses have come at the hands of Ketola, Lerdall, and Watcher. All three of whom, including Burgstahler and the two Carleton freshmen, are interchangeable for me.

So, it isn’t out of the question for him to land second. It’s a solid, dark horse pick since his name is rarely dropped here.

“The goal of life is happiness for ourselves and others through service, and to dispel suffering and injustice anywhere it is present.” Burgstahler

Burgstahler will aid the Carls in ridding the MIAC of the douchepocalypse of teams, the St. Olaf College Oles.

Here's a fun question I just thought of: If the nine other teams not from Northfield created an all-star team, would they beat Carleton and St. Olaf?

http://www.strawpoll.me/14194207

Not Paul Escher's Olaf Oles anymore wrote:

“The goal of life is happiness for ourselves and others through service, and to dispel suffering and injustice anywhere it is present.” Burgstahler

Burgstahler will aid the Carls in ridding the MIAC of the douchepocalypse of teams, the St. Olaf College Oles.

Good point

Olaf's vj wrote:

Not Paul Escher's Olaf Oles anymore wrote:

“The goal of life is happiness for ourselves and others through service, and to dispel suffering and injustice anywhere it is present.” Burgstahler

Burgstahler will aid the Carls in ridding the MIAC of the douchepocalypse of teams, the St. Olaf College Oles.

Good point

But won't more people up there hurt Carleton more than it hurts St Olaf?

Carleton's chances rely on a sparse race up front. That is, their top 5 against Olaf's top 5 and then everyone else out of the way. Because of St Olaf's Depth: (1) anyone breaking a theoretical 5 Ole/5 Knight top 10 is far more likely to be a 6th or 7th Ole than a 6th Knight, and (2) St Olaf has a statistically better chance in having more guys in front of that new Top-10 runner (they will also have more people behind that new Top-10 runner, but that doesn't matter to the score as much unless these Oles are also in front of scoring Knights).

Here are a few possibilities for how Carleton’s top 5 could place, and what St. Olaf would need to do to beat them.

Scenario #1: All five are at their best.

I don’t think Donson winning, the two freshmen finishing in the top 5, and Dodge and Meikle finishing towards the back of the top 10 are unreasonable goals for Carleton. If that happens, they are basically unbeatable. 1st, 4th, 5th, 8th, and 10th would give them 28 points, so Olaf would need to take the remaining five spots in the top 10 to score 27 points for the win, which would be very difficult because they would need to put five in front of O’Hare, Wachter, Burgstahler, Collins, and Hatton.

Scenario #2: Freshmen struggle, but Dodge and Meikle perform well.

Many people have brought up the idea that the Wilkinson and Mueller may have peaked to early and will underperform at MIAC, which I agree is definitely a possibility. However, if the Dodge and Meikle are still at their best, Carleton should still be the favorite. 1st, 6th, 8th, 10th, and 12th would give them 37 points. If this happens, St. Olaf could win with 2nd, 3rd, 7th, 11th, and 13th. While this isn’t unreasonable, they would need to perform much better than they did at La Crosse.

Scenario #3: Carleton takes takes top 3, but Dodge and Meikle struggle.

If Mueller and Wilkinson continue to run well, Carleton will be tough to beat, even if Dodge and Meikle aren’t at their best. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 15th, and 18th results in 39 points. Then St. Olaf would need 4th, 5th, 8th, 10th, and 11th to win.

Scenario #4: Wilkinson, Mueller, and Meikle run well, but Dodge blows up.

There is a very real possibility that Dodge, a very inconsistent runner, will blow up at MIAC and not be involved in the scoring. This would leave Carleton counting on Nakajima, who I ranked 34th in my latest rankings. 1st, 3rd, 4th, 10th, and 34th would give Carleton 52 points, which would open the door for a St. Olaf win, even if they didn’t significantly improve upon their performance from La Crosse. 2nd, 5th, 12th, 13th, and 19th would be enough to get Olaf the win.

Obviously these aren’t the only four ways that MIAC could play out. There could definitely be a combination of these scenarios at play. Overall, this shows me that Carleton has more wiggle room than you would initially expect. As long as no one significantly underperforms, they are in a great position to win. I also have some thoughts on how the two teams should approach the race in terms of tactics and strategy, which I will hopefully get done over the next few days.

Lol, who even is burgstaler?

Tyuhgfrtuubvf wrote:

Who from Olaf is being "douchey"?

runmn and idiottrollnoob have been forever and always.

sorry i don’t give in to the liberal calreton HIVEMIND!!! GOD told me calr will going home deviated !!

runmn wrote:

Lol, who even is burgstaler?

Steepler from a few years back. Was abroad last year, and hurt during last fall.

Has a high ceiling. Got a stress fracture last summer, cross-trained and only got to run for maybe a month before conference and took 26th.

He is a reasonable top 10 pick.

I think that Carleton and St. Olaf should be trying to score 30-35 points to win the title. 35 points will probably be enough to win, and 30 points would practically guarantee it. The easiest way for Carleton to get to that point range would be if Donson won, Mueller and Wilkinson finished in the top 5, and Dodge and Meikle finished in the top 15. For St. Olaf to get into that point range, they will need Lerdall and Ketola in the top 5, their #3 and #4 in the top 10, and their #5 in the top 12. Now that each team’s goals have been established, here’s what I think each team should do to give themselves the best chance of meeting these goals.

Carleton:

Cook-Gallardo, Mueller, and Wilkinson should take the lead from the gun and run 25:30 pace. Cook-Gallardo can win no matter how the race plays out, so he should do what’s best for his team. I’m not sure how Mueller and Wilkinson would fare in a tactical race, but they should be top 5 if the pace is honest. Dodge and Meikle should follow at 25:45 pace. St. Olaf’s greatest strength is their depth, so Carleton needs to get as many Oles out of the race as early as they can. If Dodge, or someone else, blows up, Carleton will be in trouble. However, if St. Olaf doesn’t improve upon their performance at La Crosse, Carleton could still win. As long as the top 4 run well, Nakajima could rescue them if he finishes in the 20s. He should start at about 30th and try to move up throughout the race.

St. Olaf:

St. Olaf, on the other hand, needs to take advantage of their depth and strong tactical racers. They should try to maximize the number of runners who have a chance to finish in the top 10. If the race is tactical like last year, they should have 10-12 runners in the lead pack. Ketola, Lerdall, Timm, Henschel, Plumb, Anderson, Furcich, Kirtley, Primozich, Aarness, Buchmeier, and Brenk should all have a chance to be top 15. With that many runners in the mix, they have a great chance to put five in the top 12. The biggest issue with this strategy for St. Olaf is that they can’t force Carleton to run a tactical race. If Carleton’s top 3 take the race out fast, Lerdall and Ketola should go with them. Putting Lerdall and Ketola in front of Mueller and Wilkinson would obviously make a big difference for them. But the rest of the Oles should not go with them. If they can take control of the chase pack, they can still slow the pace down and try to give as many guys as they can a chance to finish in the top 10-15. If the chase pack also gets out to a fast start, they still need to stay in close. Putting several guys in the 15th-25th range doesn’t do them any good if Carleton’s top 5 have already finished.

The fact that these two teams are so different is part of what makes this race so interesting to me. Carleton has a great top 3 and strong 4th and 5th runners, but very little depth. St. Olaf, on the other hand, has great depth, but can’t match Carleton’s top 3. I think the tactics on Saturday will be just as crucial in determining who wins the title as the fitness of the runners. In terms of tactics, Carleton has an advantage simply because they can choose to run an honest race. They can force everyone else to run at an honest pace, and the Oles will be forced to either run the same pace or be left behind. St. Olaf doesn’t have the same advantage. They can try to use their numbers advantage to control the pace, but if someone else chooses to run faster, there is nothing they can do to stop them.

How about the other teams? What would these different race strategies do to aid or hinder bethel, SJU, ST Thomas, etc?

Seriously? This dude has literally put hours into letsrun posts this season and you're asking for more? Allow me to help:

St. Thomas -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

Bethel -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

St. John's -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

Gustavus -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

Concordia -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

Macalester -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

St. Mary's -- Try to beat everyone near you that isn't on your team.

Augsburg -- Try to lead the first 100m, then have some fun. It's your day.

Can any prove the Saint Mary's actually has WiFi? I willing to bet my entire D3 Athletic scholarship and the rest of a half-eaten bag of chips sitting on this table if someone can disprove my theory.

Can I just have the chips?... That's all I really want.

https://techfaq.smumn.edu/index.php?action=artikel&cat=23&id=467&artlang=en

https://techfaq.smumn.edu/index.php?action=artikel&cat=23&id=265&artlang=en

https://techfaq.smumn.edu/index.php?action=artikel&cat=22&id=214&artlang=en

Looks like the course is likely going to be wet and slow for Saturday. A slow race certainly benefits Olaf over Carleton.

How so?