MIAC XC 2017

Pretty poor showing this week from the MIAC! They better step up their game for regionals or they will get rolled again by the IIAC, who seems to be hitting mid season form this weekend.

So Berhe is back for sure then. 17:03 5k split.

Did he drop

Looks like he did drop. But at least we see that he his still running. I can see him and Liban Jama making some big moves coming up in the season based on how talented they are. But they have a lot work they need to do.

He's back wrote:

Looks like he did drop. But at least we see that he his still running. I can see him and Liban Jama making some big moves coming up in the season based on how talented they are. But they have a lot work they need to do.

And why exactly are those two runners alone sitting on some apparent untapped potential? Anything about them in particular stand out that would make them specifically talented-but-not-developed-yet in your eyes?

WEEK 5 UPDATE

INDIVIDUAL PREDICTIONS

Tier 1

1. Donson-Cook-Gallardo, Carleton

Tier 2

2. Keith Ketola, St. Olaf

3. Thomas Lerdall, St. Olaf

4. Lucas Mueller, Carleton

5. Matthew Wilkinson, Carleton

6. Jack Henschel, St. Olaf

Tier 3

7. Austin O’Hare, St. Mary’s

8. Evan Hatton, Bethel

9. Matthew Burgstahler, St. John’s

10. Karl Wachter, St. Thomas

11. Ezekial Lelinga, Bethel

12. Andrew Stumbo, Gustavus

13. Tremayne Collins, St. John’s

14. William Anderson, St. Olaf

15. Tris Dodge, Carleton

16. Paul Timm, St. Olaf

Tier 4

17. Kyle Mehrhof, Hamline

18. Munir Isahak, Concordia

19. Cameron Meikle, Carleton

20. Alec Kirtley, St. Olaf

21. Seth Glidewell, St. Thomas

22. James Doherty, Macalester

23. Jake Lepak, Macalester

24. Fernando Benitez, Hamline

25. Erik Wicklund, Concordia

26. Sam Primozich, St. Olaf

27. Chris Boranian, Macalester

28. Spencer Grant, Macalester

29. George McGivern, St. Thomas

30. Hiroshi Nakajima, Carleton

31. Henry Boettcher, St. John’s

Tier 5

32. Anders Rasmussen, Bethel

33. Parker Rosenau, St. Thomas

34. Kevin Lamb, St. John’s

35. Carl Kozlowski, St. Thomas

36. Erik Larson, Concordia

37. Scott Helstad, St. Thomas

38. Collin Kiley, St. Thomas

39. Riley Sandberg, Gustavus

40. Brennan Gustafson, Gustavus

41. Frank Gustafson, Hamline

42. David Huffman, Bethel

43. Keenan Ronayne, Carleton

44. Nick Kerbeshian, Gustavus

45. Alex Wischnack, Gustavus

46. Ben Madigan, Gustavus

47. Tyler Bethke, Bethel

48. Jeremy Gilbertson, Gustavus

49. Jack Colleran, St. John’s

Tier 6

50. Josh Halverson, Bethel

51. Peter Jarka-Sellers, Macalester

52. Tony Duchenes, Hamline

53. Noah Kneeskern, Concordia

54. Dan Allen, St. John’s

55. Sam Jewson, Hamline

56. Justin Brakob, St. John’s

57. Nick Solheim, Concordia

58. Anthony Paladie, Hamline

59. Connor Haugen, Bethel

60. Brandon Krogman, St. Mary’s

61. Brandon Quibell, Concordia

62. Adrian Johnson, Macalester

Tier 7

63. Connor Haugrud, Concordia

64. Ben Roen, Hamline

65. Jordan Malikowski, St. Mary’s

Tier 8

66. Alex Gordon, Macalester

67. Jonathan Meaden, St. Mary’s

68. Ben Borash, St. Mary’s

69. Isaac Tade, Augsburg

Tier 9

70. Benjamin Erickson, Augsburg

71. Ryan Moore, Augsburg

72. Isaiah Olsem, St. Mary’s

73. Tanner Moris. St. Mary’s

Tier 10

74. Greg Miller, Augsburg

75. William McLeer, Augsburg

76. Jackson Gerber, Augsburg

77. Yasir Said, Augsburg

TEAM PREDICTIONS

St. Olaf (41 points)

St. Olaf’s performance at Eau Claire showed that they are going to be vulnerable at MIAC. Ketola and Lerdall ran well, but Henschel and Anderson were disappointing. Those two, as well as Timm, have top 5 potential. They also could end up outside the top 15, which I believe would cost them the title. Kirtley, Primozich, and Justin Furcich ran well, but the Oles will be in trouble if they’re counting on more than one of them to score.

Carleton (44 points)

Assuming DCG and Mueller were just resting and not injured, this was a great weekend for Carleton. Fast Tris Dodge finally showed up, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that his evil twin won’t be back at MIAC. Cameron Meikle also raced for the first time in weeks. I’m assuming he is coming back from injury, so I expect him to improve significantly next race. I think Carleton has the talent to compete with St. Olaf, but they don’t have the same depth so there is no room for error.

St. Thomas (128 points)

St. Thomas didn’t run some of their top runners at Carleton, but I was impressed by how well the rest of the team ran, especially Glidewell and McGivern. Based on the strength of their depth, I think St. Thomas is the favorite to finish 3rd.

St. John’s (136 points)

Burgstahler ran very well at Eau Claire, finishing within 20 seconds of Ketola and Lerdall. I think he’s a top 10 runner, and Collins has top 10 upside as well. The Johnnies are strong through four runners, but they could be hurt by their 5th. If they can get a 5th runner into the 30s at MIAC, they have a great chance to get 3rd.

Bethel (140 points)

Bethel didn’t race their top runners this week, here are my comments from last week:

“I think Bethel is in a great position to finish 3rd at MIAC. They have two potential top 15 runners in Hatton and Lelinga, and their 3-5 should be close to the top 40. They also have a strong group of 6th-9th runners, who could also end up in their top 5. Right now they are my pick to finish 3rd, but there are several other teams that could beat them.”

Macalester (151 points)

I’m very impressed by how well Macalester has performed so far this season. Assuming Doherty is healthy, they have a really strong pack of four runners. They are going to be hurt by their fifth, but Jarka-Sellers had his best race of the season at Carleton. His continued improvement will be the key to Mac’s success. I’m also a little concerned by how often Mac has been racing. They’ve raced four straight weeks, so I’m worried that they are going to be burnt out by MIAC.

Gustavus (180 points)

I’ve been waiting to see if any of the top 7 Gusties could break out and move up from the 30s into the 20s, and Stumbo did that and more. He showed that he could be a top 15 runner, but Gustavus will need a few more guys to improve to get into the top half of the MIAC.

Concordia (189 points)

Concordia didn’t race this week, here are my comments from last week:

“I am blown away by how well Concordia has been running so far this season., and I think they’re performance at Griak was their best of the season, although it is difficult to draw conclusions since Griak is such a challenging course and it was very hot. They have two top 25 runners, and solid depth behind them. I don’t think they have the same upside as some of the teams around them, but they have improved significantly and have a great chance to be top 5 at MIAC. “

Hamline (189 points)

Hamline didn’t race this week, here are my comments from last week:

“Hamline didn’t perform as well as I expected at Griak, but they were missing their #1 (Benitez) and their #5 (Duchenes) from their opener. Assuming those two are healthy, I still think Hamline has top 5 upside, but somewhere between 4th and 8th is more likely.”

St. Mary’s (267 points)

Not a lot to be learned from St. Mary’s race this weekend, since they were racing against UMAC schools. O’Hare won by over 30 seconds, I think he’s the best runner in the MIAC that isn’t from Northfield.

Augsburg (359 points)

¯_(ツ)_/¯

First of all, I really appreciate the time you put into these rankings and the analysis is always fun to read. But out of curiosity, why do you even keep some of these guys in there? The Augsburg 30+ min guys for example...

Idontunderstandd wrote:

First of all, I really appreciate the time you put into these rankings and the analysis is always fun to read. But out of curiosity, why do you even keep some of these guys in there? The Augsburg 30+ min guys for example...

Because they score for their team. If you don't include them Augsburg doesn't get a team score...

Why do you have MAC infront of GAC? They just lost to GAC at Carleton.

Weird post dude Pt 2 wrote:

Idontunderstandd wrote:

First of all, I really appreciate the time you put into these rankings and the analysis is always fun to read. But out of curiosity, why do you even keep some of these guys in there? The Augsburg 30+ min guys for example...

Because they score for their team. If you don't include them Augsburg doesn't get a team score...

Holy shit I'm dumb, for 5 weeks in arow I thought it was just ranking individuals

Weird post dude wrote:

He's back wrote:

Looks like he did drop. But at least we see that he his still running. I can see him and Liban Jama making some big moves coming up in the season based on how talented they are. But they have a lot work they need to do.

And why exactly are those two runners alone sitting on some apparent untapped potential? Anything about them in particular stand out that would make them specifically talented-but-not-developed-yet in your eyes?

Ummm.... because Alex last year was top 10 in the MIAC and is the top returner. Liban was 11th at state for cross country senior year. Do I need to say more?

LUL

~OlafJV

He's back wrote:

Weird post dude wrote:

And why exactly are those two runners alone sitting on some apparent untapped potential? Anything about them in particular stand out that would make them specifically talented-but-not-developed-yet in your eyes?

Ummm.... because Alex last year was top 10 in the MIAC and is the top returner. Liban was 11th at state for cross country senior year. Do I need to say more?

Plenty of guys underperforming compared to their high school times. Are they all talented runnerd who didn't put the work in yet?

Weird post dude wrote:

He's back wrote:

Ummm.... because Alex last year was top 10 in the MIAC and is the top returner. Liban was 11th at state for cross country senior year. Do I need to say more?

Plenty of guys underperforming compared to their high school times. Are they all talented runnerd who didn't put the work in yet?

I could tell you this. For these two individuals they did not have great training this summer/fall.

What other runners are underperforming from high school times?

I could name at least 3 more on St Olaf alone, but why would I single out runners like that? That's your job.

It would, if we were discussing MIAC 2016... but that's old news and they haven't impressed

Just like 2016, everyone will be shreked by olaf.

-olaf's jv

Wizards. Runescape is goat. Bub Olaf JV as well #smack #smack #smackity #smack

Part 2 wrote:

Why do you have MAC infront of GAC? They just lost to GAC at Carleton.

Like he mentioned, Mac Doherty, who on a good day could be their #1, didn't run.

My individual rankings are fairly different, yet my predictions for team outcomes are pretty similar, with St. Olaf and Carleton within a few points of each other, and St. Thomas and St. John's also very close to compete for third. It should be an interesting championship race. Bethel, Mac, Gustavus, maybe even possibly Hamline and Concordia could have a breakout performance also.