.[/quote]
Cross Country:
Meikle was 11th at MIAC as a freshman. Maybe does something at regions this year?
PT and Ketola can be up there if they get it together during cross.
Track:
In the 400, like 4 guys from Bethel could realistically make it.
In the 800, Hatton is obvious as he made nationals. Ebner was JUST outside.
In the 1500, St Olaf sophomores may step up. Someone has to. No more mental barriers running in front of them.
In the Steeple, O'Hare made 9:29 look easy at conference but that was also his PR. Rosenau ran 9:33 as a sophomore, that's nothing to scoff at.
In the 5/10k, PT and Ketola again. Plus Tris Dodge in the 10k maybe?
I'm not saying I think these guys are going to make it but this is who has the best chance.[/quote]
Looking this over, it would seem as though the best chances on the track lie with Bethel's 400m crew. They are essentially a lock to return to nationals in the 4x400m. They could have two individual qualifiers if they play their cards right and stay healthy.
As for the 800m, that is a bit more risky. Hatton gets my nod as he has had a very consistent trend of improving his 800m time these past two years, and has been improving both his 400m speed and strength in the longer events. Not to mention, I think they have proven to have incredible coaching and development over there for the past 8 seasons. Nolan will not make it in my opinion. He is very much a "go out fast and hold on for dear life" type of 800m runner, and it has worked well for him in this regard as he has just missed nationals and did well at conference. That said, he doesn't have the finishing strength for that second lap. He could develop this, but it seems he can't stay healthy long enough to do just that. I'm not sure what they do over there at MAC, but everyone always seems to get hurt quite often. It is a shame.
I'll throw another name in the 800m mix. Sam Jewson from Hamline has improved quite a bit. Though, he might struggle without a training partner like Krause. Also entering this same category are David Huffman of Bethel and Brandon Krogman of Saint Mary's. Though, their chances of making it are slim to none if they don't drop time the same way they did this year.
In the 1500m, other than Donson, we will not have anyone break 3:56 for a few years, unfortunately. The MIAC for a long time held the deepest 1500m field in the country minus perhaps the WIAC. It seems as though that era is over. The draught has begun.
The steeplechase is a very interesting one as this is typically the "easier" event to qualify for nationals in and often sees the biggest jumps in improvement.Parker Rosenau as of right now is following a similar progression as Ryan Bugler did his first two years. Very comparable PRs through their sophomore year.
Rosenau Bugler Junior Season Bugler
1500m: 4:05.67 4:01.93 3:58.79
3k: 9:02.88 9:04.25 8:35.03
5k: 15:19.88 15:51.18 14:57.89
Steeple: 9:31.75 9:34.48 9:08.50
MIAC XC: 23rd 35th 11th
Regionals: 87th 84th 30th
With all that said, it must be noted that Bugler literally steepled twice his sophomore season, something many neglect to acknowledge in his rise to stardom his junior season. Just once before conference, then at conference. Similar was his 3k and 5k from that season. He ran each event just once, winning both. He was still in the middle distance portion of his career, running 800's and 1500's every meet. Rosenau has a lot of improving to do if he is going to keep a similar progression.
As for O'Hare, he stands, in my opinion, the best chance of the two to make nationals and do well there (if he continues to improve). As of right now he is a bit of a one-trick pony as his steeple and 3k are both his best events. But one has to take in to account how he ran his 3k PR at conference this past season. He led from the gun (which actually isn't such a bad thing in the steeple), then closed in a 65-ish right behind Bugler. That is D3 national class closing speed in the event. That said, he still has 20 seconds to drop before he would even qualify. So, I say no one from this event qualifies for nationals.
For the 5k, no one will qualify unless for some freak reason DCG decides to go for it. It is just such a deep national event and the conference doesn't have the developed talent.
10k is more reasonable as less are inclined to run that event at the national level. PT has a solid chance to qualify for this event. He's got about 30-40 seconds to cut off before he can enter that conversation, but to be frank, I think a lot of us thought he would have been closer this year before he got hurt. He's just has to learn not to race dumb and throw in random spurts. Just get in line and follow the train to a fast time.
Tris Dodge will not qualify for nationals on the track. If you take away the sole 15:05 5k and 8:50 3k (which are both impressive) from his outdoor and indoor season, then he had a very, very average year. He seems to be good for one race a season. He just has no, as I quote many ESPN analysis, "Dog in him." He doesn't seem like an overly competitive guy nor does he ever contend for the win in any race.