31 year old trying to make a "comeback" - predictions, suggestions, advice

Sounds like you still have "it". From what I gather I think you could be into the mid to low 17s for 5k by the fall without much problem, I can also see a sub 65 ten miler, but you'd need to get that long run up a bit more. Of course that is contingent upon staying healthy and training.

What would your ideal goal be?

I already wrote my prediction three weeks ago.

https://letscommentate.wordpress.com/2017/05/01/why-your-comeback-will-fail/

Your potential is obviously fairly high (compared to most local or regional road racers). The limiting factor is your commitment to consistent training. If that changes, you could run sub-17 after 16-20 weeks of training. If it doesn't, your times will likely change very little. It's hard to estimate your inner motivation from your post.

In many ways I agree with your post about being intrinsically motivated vs extrinsically.

I'd say that this time around I've already lasted more than a few weeks though, as I've logged nearly 200 miles since February, which is already double that of every year for the last 5 years.

I'm trying to build up to consistently run in the 40 mile range. I've felt really tired after the few weeks in the mid 20s and I want to be super cautious about over doing it.

I know it is likely a long shot, but IF (the largest two letter word imaginable) I can can GET and STAY motivated I'd like to think I could still attain an all-time 5k PR. This being based off my recent 5k of such little training.

I guess my motiviation is somewhat of an "early mid-life crisis". I don't want to get fat and really slow.

So young, and so few miles under your belt...

There's no rush. Develop the right habits and you can improve for 5 years in a row. You will be more mature, better able to keep habits.

Build mileage slowly, drop back every few weeks, do not neglect strength training, drills, pure speed. If you can do 40mpw this season, you can do 50 next, and so on.

Thanks for the feedback. It may be too early or I may just be dreaming but I really do think I can run "fast" still. Like you mentioned, I don't have alot of miles on my body, so I think if I train smart and consistently that I can still run many lifetime bests.

I am the same age and have nearly the same prs. A couple of questions:

Do you have a family?

Do you work a job with abnormal time commitments?

How is the weather where you train?

What is your plan for ramping up training? If you want to run a fast 5k this year, I think you're rushing it. If your plan is to run fast next year, I think you could get below 17. It's all about commitment - you've got to get out there all of the time.

I'd love to be in your spot but I haven't figured how to incorporate training into my first question above.

Yes, I do have a family, which is what makes it hard to train. I often find myself running in the evenings, sometimes 9 to 10PM at night. I live in the south so that is actually beneficial with the hot weather that is fast approaching.

My job is a normal 7-4 commitment, but it is flexible and I can sometimes go in a little earlier or later as my schedule needs.

As mentioned I live in the South. Weather is HOT AND HUMID, for those of you who have never run in the South in the summer you are missing out. It doesn't have the same effect as altitude training but it does make workouts more difficult.

My plan now is just to remain consistent with 20-30 mile weeks and slowly ramp up as time permits. I realize I need a more strict schedule, but my work/family schedule doesn't really allow me to be as disciplined as I'd like to be.

I think with some quality weeks under my belt for a good 10 week period I can run mid to low 17s by the fall. Atleast that is my hope.