Official Sub-2 Live Discussion Thread and Prediction Thread

Markus wrote:

They could come closer maybe sub 2:02 but once they fall behind the pace they will drop out. Nike doesn't want to promote a 2:05:22 shoe.

That is a very good thought. "Injury" might pop up if they fall off the pace bigtime to save face.

Agreed. Many people here seem to underestimate the effect of perfect drafting. Just take a look at Paula Radcliffe who ran 2 minutes faster with male pacers. It may not be enough for a sub-2, even though.

Man Kipchoge is the marathon GOAT tho. I could see him coming through half in like 59:50 and not be completely stressed. That being said, I think if everything goes perfect he runs 2:01-2:03.

one thing people are forgetting is this. what are the odds kipchoge even can get the normal wr? i know hes a beast and pretty obvious on a perfect day during a normal marathon he could get towards 202:30. but the odds of running a wr performance are so low even if you are capable, especially with tr marathon. so many variables. say he was running london with the goal of going for wr. would you bet beforehand he gets it? honestly i would bet against it, even with knowing how good he is.

he might only be ready for a 204or 205(normal conditions) on the day. who knows.

i dont think nike is doing anything that crazy in terms of aid honestly and i wish this would be considered legit. whats the big deal about rotating pacers and being handed fluids? as for the shoe... im undecided. havent shoe companies been advertising forever that their shoes make you faster? now that one might actually do it, its an issue....lol. weird. but yeah a spring plate does feel like cheating.

hmm. i think youre wejo or rojo or another lrc staffer in disguise. id guess rojo. please tell me if im right :)

If course was measured in same way that Tyler Andrews measures the courses of his workouts, then sub-2 hours is definitely possible!

They will be closer in time to the WR than the 2:00 hour mark, and there will be pace making issues.

My guess (assuming no DNF) is 2:05:40

They will hold sub 2 hour pace for about 16 miles, then reality will get the best of them.

Ive already broken 2:00, in 1968, on a training run.

I will say 2:02:15

If they finish, 2:07.

The only material difference between this attempt and the other fastest marathons in the world is that the pacers can go to the finish. Berlin already has a perfect course, perfect weather, and a phalanx of pacers breaking the wind. The fact that some paced marathons still have minor surges is irrelevant, because even the surges are rarely to a faster pace than the guys will by trying to run in this "race."

It's funny to me when people say this is exactly like the 4-minute mile, because it's actually just the opposite. In 1954, everyone in the track world knew that the 4-minute mile was coming very soon. It was the people largely outside of the sport who thought it was impossible. With Sub-2, on the other hand, the only people who think it's possible are people who know nothing about running.

2:01:18

I thought some Rudisha guy ran like 1:40 or something in london clearly you are mistaken

Assuming it's not a DNF and they doesn't burn out completely trying to maintain pace, and slow down a little as they start to realize it's impossible:

2:01:33 = Kipchoge

2:06:56 = Tadese

2:07:36 = Desisa

Humidity looks to be in the 70% range. Not quite ideal. 55 degrees with a very light wind at ground level will be nice. Air density should be right around 1.22kg/m^3

Kipchoge Stats/Capacity

Weight - 57kgs

Power output capacity 1 hour = 6.7w/kg & 2 hours = 6.31w/kg

HM = 58:45, MAR = 2:02:00 (this is regular conditions with excellent pacing and no tactical messing around)

10% less drag 2:02:00 turns into 2:01:03

20% less drag 2:02:00 turns into 2:00:07

30% less drag 2:02:00 turns into 1:59:12

If the humidity is not too great and the timing board is a functional windscreen, it's very much possible. If Nike did their homework with the windscreen and they have his nutrition dialed in so that power output is not compromised, you could see him smash 2:00:00 and flirt with 1:58:high

I haven't read the whole thread, so sorry if a repeat question, but how will the windscreen affect cooling. Will it not play a factor or will it be more like running indoors or on a treadmill? Is it just as long as the runner is moving there's adequate air over the body to cool it? As opposed to treadmill, that is.

Kipchoge is the boss. Kimmetto couldn't carry his jock strap. Kipchoge will shatter Kinmetto's time but fall short of 2 hrs. My prediction: 2:01:45. Expect him to fade late in conditions that are good but not quite ideal.

Can't really argue with that. Personally, I'm looking at it more from a mental perspective. Is sub-2 next to impossible to obtain? Sure. But if you don't keep pushing the envelope how can you expect great things to happen?

World record for 10 miles is 4:26 pace, someone posted it days ago. You guys just don't get it. Negativity? They aren't breaking 2 hours, what a joke. Comparing it to the 2:08 and 2:05 doesn't fly.

word play wrote:

They won't get past 20 miles on pace. Likely off track shortly after 15.

How many athletes could even hold a rabbit pace of 4:35 and for how long?

I hope they make it interesting

Ah, to study epistemology on the old campus again...

What college were you in, LVO?