Official Sub-2 Live Discussion Thread and Prediction Thread

Seems that it would have made sense for the Sub2 group to run a 20-mile test race at this point before jumping right into the sub-2-hour marathon.

We know that 2 of the 3 can run under 1 hour for the half marathon on this Formula 1 track. However, if they can't run 2-hour marathon pace for 20 miles (1:31:36) -- or if they have to max out to do it -- then a sub-2 is not doable.

Of course, if they had chosen to do a 20-miler and nobody could keep up with the pace, effectively that would have shut down the project.

Only Kipchoge has a chance. I think he'll try to stay on pace for as long as possible and will be there until 35K or so miles before blowing up. No WR. I don't understand why they chose the other 2. Perhaps untapped potential they saw but they have no chance.

They are supposed to negative split with the first half at 1:00:15. Everyone here seems to be forgetting the drafting. Comparing a normal 1:00:00 to one with perfect drafting technique is nuts

equivalent times according to McMillan for 1:59:59

800- 1:35.5

1500- 3:16

5k- 12:19

10k- 25:34

1/2- 57:01

Jimmy21 wrote:

They are supposed to negative split with the first half at 1:00:15. Everyone here seems to be forgetting the drafting. Comparing a normal 1:00:00 to one with perfect drafting technique is nuts

I agree. For the women's WR, didn't Paula have a perfect drafting technique? I can't say I've ever actually watched a video of the race, but I seem to remember she had men pacing her the entire way.

Her run certainly changed opinions about what was possible, why couldn't this run do the same?

I feel like everyone is overlooking the fact that the current marathon WR (and other times very close to it) haven't been run with ideal splits.

Like that 14:09 5k at the 35k mark for Kimetto... that can't have been optimal. And surely there were a few other minor surges as well.

Factor in the perfect drafting and the fact that Kipchoge could probably break the WR by 10-20 seconds anyway in a normal race (if he were going for the fastest time possible rather than just a win) and I think 1:59:59- 2:00:59 is within the realm of possibility.

I think the shoes and nutrition aren't going to make much of a difference, but at least we know they will be as close to perfect as possible.

I actually don't think he's going to break 2, but I bet breaks 2:01.

Letsrun, stop using John Kellogg as an expert. Anyone who thinks temps in the 70s will slow marathoners 30 seconds (1 sec per mile) should not be referred to again. He said this before Boston.

Hey Jose, you jagaloon, when the WR HM was run did they have any of the pace benefits and all the extras Nike is providing? Do you not think the HM WR could be considerably better if they could run behind a car running a very precise pace and have pacers come and go through the race?

This is a publicity stunt and no one is close to capable of running a legit sub 2 marathon but with all the benefits and "extras" Nike is providing I think it is very possible we will be a 2:00:XX or less marathon.

..yawn. Moses Mosop owns the 30k track world's record of 1:26:47, which if extrapolated to the 42.195k (another +12.195k/7.58mi) distance of the marathon would only yield 2:02:04.7; this 1:59:59.9 is not going to happen ...

I'm not Jose, but answering for myself, "considerably better" no I don't. Watch the race, it's on YouTube. If you think a car in front of him and different shoes would have made a "considerable" difference, then that's your belief, not mine. You think 2:00:XX, do ya? Sorry, you are not too quick on the uptake are you? They could run dead even, 60:00 flat at half way, and they will not come back in a sub 61:00 the second half. Do you realize how many times these guys have run under 60. Kipsang broke 59 minutes by 1 second 8 years ago, and guess what, he never ran faster. That was an all out effort that got him the world record at the time. Do you even understand what that means? The 10 mile world record pace is 4:26 per mile. You believe they are going to run 4:34 for 26.2? Dennis had pacers on a near perfect weather day until at least 30k. You believe it's very possible, but you're really not that confident in it happening, are you? Jagaloon? Immature, that would be you, not me. Please, grow up and be the 16 year old that you are.

I'm not sure why everyone is so negative about the attempt to run sub-2. If they fail, they fail. But at least they had the balls to try to see if it can be done by eking out every marginal gain they can. It's the desire to do the impossible that will make it possible some day. Refusing to even try (or being criticized for trying) because armchair critics personally believe it's impossible is 10x more contemptible. And who the hell cares if it's just a publicity stunt designed to sell expensive sneakers to hobby joggers? Why is NIke's wanting to make money from the effort somehow less acceptable than professional marathoners running to win cash prizes and endorsements? I'm looking forward to the sub-2 effort this weekend and if these incredible athletes fail, then I hope they keep trying until they succeed.

douglas burke wrote:

DNF for all 3, they all will fall off the pace WELL BEFORE 30km

cheater shoes? wtf.

wear any shoes you want with up to a one inch sole. max

there is nothing what so ever in the cards to suggest a 2 hour thon.

i think it can be done, by a young bekele type, doped to the gills..

which means you need to be taking stuff off the grid or stuff that is no on the grid yet.

If you're implying that I'm negative, you're wrong. To drop 3 minutes at their pace because of shoes, pacers, a car, etc...isn't going to do it. I agree with you 100% that it will be fun to watch, but don't count on a sub 2 hour marathon as that's what they are hyping. Watch Dennis run his world record pace. He ran with pacers, great weather, etc...and he gave it everything he had to get barely get under 2:03. He was literally spent. 2 hours? Not gonna happen. Calling those of us armchair critics because we don't believe it can be done is ridiculous at best. Have you ever seen a race where the leaders went out in 60:00 flat? There's a reason for that and you'll find out soon enough. As for Nike making money, I haven't heard anyone complain about that as you have strongly implied that they have (I read this entire thread before I made my post). Nike will always make tons of money, we all know that and I don't believe anyone is bothered by it. Just because someone disagrees with you doesn't make them a critic. If so, then you're whole life is a pipe dream at best.

EAH wrote:

I'm not sure why everyone is so negative about the attempt to run sub-2. If they fail, they fail. But at least they had the balls to try to see if it can be done by eking out every marginal gain they can. It's the desire to do the impossible that will make it possible some day. Refusing to even try (or being criticized for trying) because armchair critics personally believe it's impossible is 10x more contemptible. And who the hell cares if it's just a publicity stunt designed to sell expensive sneakers to hobby joggers? Why is NIke's wanting to make money from the effort somehow less acceptable than professional marathoners running to win cash prizes and endorsements? I'm looking forward to the sub-2 effort this weekend and if these incredible athletes fail, then I hope they keep trying until they succeed.

The biggest factor at play is drug testing. Does anyone know if the athletes will be drug tested? If not, a sub 2 may be possible if doped to the gills.

Bekele's 10k WR is equivalent to 2:00:58 for the marathon according to the Daniels calculator. Kipchoge isn't that good, but with optimal conditions and not following the rules, he could probably come close. In a record-legal attempt, Kipchoge is probably good for around 2:02:30 if everything goes to plan.

In the Nike attempt, if they do a good job of optimizing everything, then I expect a final time of around 2:01:15. Realistically, though, there's a good chance that everyone will blow up and stagger home or DNF.

Most likely more than one will finish even when they can't maintain 4:34. If they slowed and ran 2:02+ with everything done perfectly for them, they are still a LOOOONG way away. 2 minutes at that pace and the toll that the distance will take on them is more than most realize. Oh well, disagree as that is your right. I'd bet the farm that no one is breaking 2 hours like many believe, but it will be fun to watch:)

kikKomen Soi sauce wrote:

The biggest factor at play is drug testing. Does anyone know if the athletes will be drug tested? If not, a sub 2 may be possible if doped to the gills.

Bekele's 10k WR is equivalent to 2:00:58 for the marathon according to the Daniels calculator. Kipchoge isn't that good, but with optimal conditions and not following the rules, he could probably come close. In a record-legal attempt, Kipchoge is probably good for around 2:02:30 if everything goes to plan.

In the Nike attempt, if they do a good job of optimizing everything, then I expect a final time of around 2:01:15. Realistically, though, there's a good chance that everyone will blow up and stagger home or DNF.

How do we know the course is legit. Are they going to post it on Strava?

Is it certified by a third party?

Well it is a certified f1 race track so I assume its legit

2:00:39