Official Sub-2 Live Discussion Thread and Prediction Thread

Using the half marathon progression is not a good barometer.

The top athletes do not train to race a full effort half marathon.

They almost always use a half marathon as a tuneup or a paycheck.

They focus their peak efforts on the marathon.

It's almost like saying it would have been impossible for El G to run 1500m in 3:26 since his 1000m best is pace for 3:25.

best case: Kipchoge is in 2:02:30 shape under good conditions in a normal marathon. Since they are cycling new pacers in, he'll be drafting the last 6 miles which isn't usually the case in world record attempts. If that's worth 3% it'll take off about a minute so 2:01:30. If he's going to led by a V of pacers instead of a single pacer, maybe that's worth an additional 1% over the whole thing (1% here is a wild-ass guess). That'd be worth another minute and a third so round down to 2:01:00. I'm betting the shoes don't make a difference. I don't think best, best case is 2:01-flat but I predict splits of 60:00 and 6:03 for a time of 2:03:00.

getting old wrote:

He'll break the world record, but not sub 2,

2:01:37.

This. I don't even question that they'll get the WR, but am thankful it won't count.

Just think - you're taking the best marathoner in the world who has run very close to the WR, putting him on an easy course with few real turns, taking wind out of the equation, ensuring they don't push too hard early...I don't believe the shoes make a difference, but either way. This is going to be an incredible run, just not sub - 2

Star wrote:

Using the half marathon progression is not a good barometer.

The top athletes do not train to race a full effort half marathon.

They almost always use a half marathon as a tuneup or a paycheck.

They focus their peak efforts on the marathon.

It's almost like saying it would have been impossible for El G to run 1500m in 3:26 since his 1000m best is pace for 3:25.

Your argument was really good until the last analogy. 1000m is never run... half marathon is quite common. Therefore, it doesn't compare.

Think about this: During a HM, although it is a tune-up race and they have not specifically trained for the distance, they are definitely going full out, even if they could run faster if they weren't training for the marathon. Don't believe for a second that they are holding back when they are racing. So, if during peak marathon training, the best in world history can only hit mid 58 in the HM, why would it make sense to think that they can run a minute slower through a marathon halfway and then run another one when they are using that same exact training block?

Conclusion: Sub 2 hours is not happening for a long time.

My guess is that they try to stay near pace for as long as they can and Kipchoge staggers home in 2:04:31.

Probably won't even break the course record. Pathetic.

Wrong, it is a very good barometer.You are over analyzing it, as usual. Do you actually think that when they are racing for a marathon and run a half marathon 6 weeks or whatever before, that they aren't in shape to run both?When Ritz ran his 10,000 pr of 27:22, 11 days later he ran his pr of 12:56 for 5000. Less than 2 months later, he ran 60:00 for a half marathon.Please tell us how he trained for and pr'd in all 3 events? How did he pr in the 5000 after running twice the distance and setting a pr 11 days earlier? Aren't the 5000 and 10,000 two different events? You made the idiotic comparison to the 1500m, which by the way made me feel quite embarrassed for you. Do you actually believe that they are going to run 60 flat at halfway and do it again. Do you understand what the world record is for the half and how old it is? It's 58:23 and it's over 7 years old. Do you believe if he had slowed down his pace about 8 seconds per mile, bringing him thru at 60, that he could have done it again???No one is breaking 2 hours for a marathon for a LONG, LONG TIME! Any betters out there? Contact me, please. Star---you really don't understand running, do you?

Star wrote:

Using the half marathon progression is not a good barometer.

The top athletes do not train to race a full effort half marathon.

They almost always use a half marathon as a tuneup or a paycheck.

They focus their peak efforts on the marathon.

It's almost like saying it would have been impossible for El G to run 1500m in 3:26 since his 1000m best is pace for 3:25.

I meant beeeeeeeeeeeetters:):):). Bring on the bets, I'm waiting with an open wallet that is dying to be filled with $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Bekele has run about 2:03 flat for the marathon - almost got the WR.

His best half marathon is 1:01

Mutai has the #4 marathon and hasn't broke 60 for the half.

On the other side, Tadese has WR fpr the half and hasn't broken 2:10 for the marathon.

Kisorio has run 58 but couldn't get under 2:06.

You have to go to the 7th best half marathoner to get someone who's gone under 2:04.

Meaning - the best marathoners haven't made attempts at fast half marathon times.

And the training is the same.

So throw the half marathon record as a gauge to how easy or hard 60 flat would be to the top marathoner.

I get it that it's a fast pace compared to other people's half times.

But I'd focus on more tested data like marathon times.

It's almost 7 seconds per mile which is a lot to carry that far.

It took 15 years to go from 2:06 flat to 2:03 flat.

30 years for the previous 3 minutes (2:09) yet just a couple years to get down 3 min from 2:12.

My main issue with this event is that it is set up for one person.

If you had the top 10 guys in the world going for it, thinking of only the clock and not looking at each other, then I'd give a chance for mid 2:01.

But relying on one guy who has 15 years of world class times under his belt and may have just surpassed his peak reduces the odds of a fast time.

Prediction? The Tesla lead car malfunctions and breaks down on the spot after about 90 minutes. All the runners run into it a crashes in a heap of entangled legs. Tesla stock crashes. Elon Musk goes bankrupt 1:59:45 later.

Here's the thing, I think Kipchoge has shown the capability to run possibly 2:02:00 in a Dubai or Berlin type race if everything went right.

Nobody has tried a top level marathon coddling the runners the whole way like this before. A moped handing you drinks whenever you want, an army of pacers around you the whole time keeping you exactly on pace, etc. If the cheating shoes work like they're supposed to, that's another little boost.

So I actually believe it is possible for him to cover 26.218 miles in under 2:00:00 at this event. The odds are still pretty far against it, but I think it's possible.

Would I be particularly excited if it happens - no. It's a dumb publicity stunt for Nike. Would have been way more excited to see Kipchoge race London.

Forgot to mention, no drug testing either out of competition or at the race. At least none that I trust. I don't want to believe Kipchoge is on anything, but there is a testing process/procedure for a reason.

It's predicted to be 70 degrees F. and raining on Saturday, and partly cloudy and 71 on Sunday. If it's not postponed, *possibly* a world record, but NO WAY sub-2. Too warm.

NoooooWaaaaay wrote:

It's predicted to be 70 degrees F. and raining on Saturday, and partly cloudy and 71 on Sunday. If it's not postponed, *possibly* a world record, but NO WAY sub-2. Too warm.

Really silly course selection. For goodness sake, there have got to be flatter, cooler places in the world that would let you have a legal altitude drop between start and finish. I'm sure crowdsourcing it to the letsrun community would have given them a few nice loops with a nearby drop that would be more suitable.

NoooooWaaaaay wrote:

It's predicted to be 70 degrees F. and raining on Saturday, and partly cloudy and 71 on Sunday. If it's not postponed, *possibly* a world record, but NO WAY sub-2. Too warm.

Oh really? Well then yeah this is going to be a trainwreck and if they go through the half under 60:30 in 70 degree weather then I'm guessing DNF or 2:05+

Hey goofball, it could be 55 degrees with no wind and they still aren't breaking 2 hours. Please, get with the program or stay on the sides...they are NOT breaking 2 hours, period.

NoooooWaaaaay wrote:

It's predicted to be 70 degrees F. and raining on Saturday, and partly cloudy and 71 on Sunday. If it's not postponed, *possibly* a world record, but NO WAY sub-2. Too warm.

2:02:47

Where are the details of the race? Is it downhill at all?

I say 2:04:54 if he finishes. I'll give him sub 2 pace for 17 miles though.

I say it's rigged.

The 2 hour shoe commercial will have a happy ending.

I don't know what Nike's contingency plans are if Kipchoge starts to fall behind the splits, but they have one.

Corners may be cut, mile splits fudged, finish abrubtly moved further up the track to that place they planned it to end all along but didn't tell anyone.

The 2 hour shoe commercial will have a happy ending.