Here's the backstory:
I'm in grad school, and got an email about a mentorship program a few months ago. I figured there was no downside to talking to someone outside of academia, so I signed up for the program.
Last Thursday, I got an email from the program coordinator introducing me to a researcher working at a national lab who graduated from my school. I exchanged emails with the researcher, and we agreed to talk on the phone the following Monday (today).
Two days later, Saturday, I was invited to a margarita night at my friend's apartment. Her roommates also invited their friends, so there were many people there I had never met. We ended up playing a drinking game in which one person in the circle would ask another person in the circle a question privately, and the answer, but not the question, would be revealed to the group. Then, a coin flip would determine whether the question would be revealed. The person answering the question also had the opportunity to take a shot to prevent anyone from knowing the question.
When the girl sitting next to me had the opportunity to ask a question, she took me aside, and asked me who I would like to take home in the group. There was one girl I thought was quite cute sitting across from me, so when the time came for me to answer the question, I first asked her for her name, which she gave, and then told the group that my answer was her. I then lost the coin flip, and the question was revealed. The girl and I ended up chatting briefly at the end of the night, but I didn't try to make a move, as we were both designated drivers for our respective friends.
Today, I checked my email to confirm the time for the phone call with the researcher. I happened to glance at the sender of the original email, and was surprised to see that the name of the program coordinator was the same as the name of the girl from margarita night that I had told the group I would like to take home. I quickly confirmed that it was the same girl.
I figured that the coincidence was too good to pass up, but stopped by my friend's apartment to get more information. My friend's roommate, the friend of the cute girl, said that while the girl wasn't in a serious relationship, she had gone on a few dates with a guy and seemed to really like him.
Nevertheless, I replied to the email from the cute girl/program coordinator, inviting her to lunch tomorrow and giving her my number. She just sent me a string of texts in which she remarked at the coincidence and mentioned that she had started seeing a guy, and wanted to see where that relationship would go, but that she would love to get lunch as friends. We're walking to lunch tomorrow.
So, what are my chances?