Can I go sub 3:00 in marathon before I turn 50?

I'd say you're about 21 minutes off. I figure you should run more and do more quality workouts over the next 2 cycles, running fall and spring races, and see how you improve. Then you'll have a good idea if you can go sub 3.

But seriously though, you're shorter distance times aren't in line with a sub 3 yet either. If you focus too much on racing marathons right now you may stagnate because the taper and recovery times can leave you out of running for a month or more between the before and after the race, especially when you're older. I know for some people the marathon beats them up so bad that they feel like they're back at square one after the race and have to build back up again.

I might suggest keeping your mileage where it is or bumping your mileage even higher, but focusing on getting to an 85-90 minute half (or an in-line 10k?). You can race more than 1-2 of these a year and usually only need a week or so of easy running to recover instead of taking whole weeks off from running altogether (like some people need to). If you have a couple year deadline I think you can progress faster this way, and you need to work on being faster across all distances to get faster at the marathon at your current level.

If you don't think you'll ever be able to get to an 85-86 minute half, I might have trouble saying you'll ever get to the sub 3 full either, but that's just my thoughts on it.

It's completely realistic.

You're at the right weight, it sounds like you understand how your body reacts to higher mileage.

If you're really serious about doing it soon, consider hiring a coach. I made massive leaps in fitness with a coach who understood my goals. You can go from 3:21 to 2:59 in six months. I've seen it happen. 6:50 pace is easy to get to.

I didn't start running until I was 40, it took less then three years for me to break 3. Don't put hurdles in front of yourself that don't need to be there. 46 is young.

D.S. Pumpkins - Ha! Yeah. I know it's kind of dumb question at this point, being that I'm nowhere close to that. Guess I'm just looking for some feedback from others that might have somewhat similar history.

The thought was never really in my head before. I figure I can put it out there as a long term goal and re-access each year.

Thanks guys for the quick replies already. I'll continue to read responses. Real good advice already. Thanks!

Your short race times are *far* too slow to make a serious prediction:

> 5k=19:50, Half=1:32 (very hilly course)

You have to get a lot faster before you can seriously threaten the sub 3:00 mark. If you're not able to run under 18:00 for a 5K, it's not going to happen unless you run really high mileage. Even then you'd still need to be well under 19:00. I ran my first marathon in 2:58 because I didn't even bother until I hit the right times for shorter distances.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but until you show evidence that you're on track it's just a dream.