First off, discount everything I am about to say as I have run three marathons and not managed to come anywhere near optimal splits.
Also, while this came up in the context of Runn3rgGirl's post, I am really just talking generally here and using her goal times as an example.
That being said, my take is that pacing the marathon is part physiology and part psychology.
I agree that the key is to stay aerobic, and I acknowledge that running even splits is the best way to get the fastest possible time.
But sometimes people are not seeking their best possible time, but rather to get under a specific time. Depending on your aerobic fitness, that could mean that you could stay aerobic while running a faster first half on the way to a positive split since you are not necessarily trying to capture every possible second out there.
The psychology part of it is fairly simple - people like to bank time and have a cushion. With the marathon this is a particularly insidious thing because there is good reason to want to bank time as the back end of the marathon is always grueling. Yet, you accurately point out that part of why it is grueling is that if you have gone past the LT and don't notice it, the price is steep later on.
If I think I am in 2:28:40 shape (5:40 pace), and I want to run 2:28:40, I would go out and try to split 1:14:20. However, if I thought I was in 2:28:40 shape, but my goal was simply to get under the magic 2:30 threshold (5:43 pace), I would definitely still go out in 1:14:20 rather than to back down to 1:15:00 and then try to run an even or negative split. A slight increase in risk as I may have misjudged myself to be in 2:28:40 shape when I wasn't; but worth the reduction in in-race pressure that results from having no room for error.
Assuming a fair course and a goal time of 2:45, and assuming that I had the theoretical fitness to run 2:40-2:42 range (as Runn3rGirl's recent races suggest), I would definitely try to bank time. If I were in her shoes, I would probably go out in the 1:21:30 range, leaving myself the opportunity to hit my time goal while running a 2:00 positive split.