Clayton Murphy just ran 1:43.60 at Mt. Sac

progression doe wrote:

i know this is crazy, but if we look at his progression we see: 150.0 - 145.6 - 142.9. thats improving 4.4 and then 2.7 seconds from one year to the next. if we fit this to an exponential decay we'd see him drop about 1.2-1.3 seconds this year and then 0.6 seconds next year. that would put him at 1:41.6-7 this year and 1:41.0-1 next year.

Don't worry, calculo will drop in to tell you how wrong you are. If Murphy should somehow end up a 1:40 - 1:41 runner calculo will have all kinds of ridiculous reasoning that will show you how Murphy is inferior to Joaquim Cruz. Then Deanouk will jump in to let you know that no matter how fast Murphy ever gets, even if his times are far faster than Seb Coe's, Seb still actually ran faster because of lane draws, positioning in races, distance from the curb on the turns and more.

Nick Symmond just reconsidered retirement. (He's considering moving it up substantially ;)

Ouch, that's fast for April!!

progression doe wrote:

i know this is crazy, but if we look at his progression we see: 150.0 - 145.6 - 142.9. thats improving 4.4 and then 2.7 seconds from one year to the next. if we fit this to an exponential decay we'd see him drop about 1.2-1.3 seconds this year and then 0.6 seconds next year. that would put him at 1:41.6-7 this year and 1:41.0-1 next year.

Doubt he'll drop into that kind of range, I'm guessing 1:41 mid to 1:42 low with a miracle run. I'd love to be proven wrong though.

hate to break it to you wrote:

It's April.

That's the difference between blazing fast and blazing fast unbelievably early.

Argh! wrote:

Nick Symmond just reconsidered retirement. (He's considering moving it up substantially ;)

Ouch, that's fast for April!!

Probably peaked too early in the year. Fast time though.

Somebody tell me, is every thing on flotrack now?

wknfwfn wrote:

Approximate splits of 51.3/52.3 adding to how impressive this run was. American record and a medal in London this summer.

Official splits. Even pace for the most part. Very impressive. 51.9/51.7

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

Argh! wrote:

Nick Symmond just reconsidered retirement. (He's considering moving it up substantially ;)

Ouch, that's fast for April!!

Probably peaked too early in the year. Fast time though.

Somebody tell me, is every thing on flotrack now?

Notice how no one said this about Brazier's 1:44.

Hopefully neither is peaking early.

Given Murphy's improvement each year since HS it's not that surprising: 1:54 - 1:50 - 1:45 - 1:42.9 in Rio...dramatic. That follows suit for a lot of top 800 and/or 1500 guys; they appear in almost sudden fashion.

Code Bleddd wrote: Don't worry, calculo will drop in to tell you how wrong you are. If Murphy should somehow end up a 1:40 - 1:41 runner calculo will have all kinds of ridiculous reasoning that will show you how Murphy is inferior to Joaquim Cruz. Then Deanouk will jump in to let you know that no matter how fast Murphy ever gets, even if his times are far faster than Seb Coe's, Seb still actually ran faster because of lane draws, positioning in races, distance from the curb on the turns and more.

Yes they will. But you forgotten one thing, one key thing. After they work though that debate, we will see the inevitable introduction of JIM RYUN and his DVTT(tm) of 1:39. That's recognized as the best of all time by the fantasists so that ends their debate. And ours. Fastest ever.

Put your slide ruler away. You have Murphy running in David Rudisha, 1:40.91 and Wilson Kipketer, 1:41.11 territory next year. I guarantee Murphy will not race as fast Kipketer. Not next year. Not over the next ten years! Rudisha and Kipketer, both sub-47 400m men. One must be a sub-47 400m man to race 1:41.0

bigger stronger faster wrote:

Put your slide ruler away. You have Murphy running in David Rudisha, 1:40.91 and Wilson Kipketer, 1:41.11 territory next year. I guarantee Murphy will not race as fast Kipketer. Not next year. Not over the next ten years! Rudisha and Kipketer, both sub-47 400m men. One must be a sub-47 400m man to race 1:41.0

Murphy's run relay legs of 45.3 and 45.8 so he's probably capable of at least 47 flat out of the blocks, likely faster. You can watch him run a 45 + leg on Youtube after he ran a 1:47 800 at last year's TX Relays.

i know its crazy, just a fun idea to think about! maybe he's just on a whole different level

UltraDiLLLo wrote:

Code Bleddd wrote: Don't worry, calculo will drop in to tell you how wrong you are. If Murphy should somehow end up a 1:40 - 1:41 runner calculo will have all kinds of ridiculous reasoning that will show you how Murphy is inferior to Joaquim Cruz. Then Deanouk will jump in to let you know that no matter how fast Murphy ever gets, even if his times are far faster than Seb Coe's, Seb still actually ran faster because of lane draws, positioning in races, distance from the curb on the turns and more.

Yes they will. But you forgotten one thing, one key thing. After they work though that debate, we will see the inevitable introduction of JIM RYUN and his DVTT(tm) of 1:39. That's recognized as the best of all time by the fantasists so that ends their debate. And ours. Fastest ever.

I hadn't seen calculo bring up the 1:39 Ryun bit in a while. I thought he'd retired it. While I believe that Ryun is as talented as anyone who's ever run the 1500/mile, I don't think the 800 was his forte, and 1:39, well, good for laughs.

Wottle's Cap wrote:

wknfwfn wrote:

Approximate splits of 51.3/52.3 adding to how impressive this run was. American record and a medal in London this summer.

Official splits. Even pace for the most part. Very impressive. 51.9/51.7

No, 51.4/52.2. Still impressive though.

progression doe wrote:

i know its crazy, just a fun idea to think about! maybe he's just on a whole different level

Considering his improvement, he probably is. One has to hope the excitement of being a pro and all that rapid improvement doesn't have him overdoing it too early. The WCs are in August. Then again, maybe he's going to have another big jump this summer as he has every year since he went from 1:54 to 1:50 in '14.

part of me just always wishes we're going to see something one-of-a-kind. like an usain bolt or an MJ. I guess all we can do is just wait and see!

I'm an AMERICAN and would love to see Murphy continue to do well and for Brazier to take it to the next level on the international stage. If one falters and the other one succeeds so be it. And if Berian can figure out how to run rounds it would be awesome to have three medal contenders at the WCs and OGs. Being from Iowa, I'm also a big Sowinski fan. I'd rather think of the possibilities of all the above rather than their limitations.

Post a link for that 45+ split

Bet he breaks AR this year. At least 1:42.5 maybe quicker in the right race.

rubar wrote:

Dude's a beast! great time for this early in the season.

Damn, that's nutz! Maybe 1:42 flat come World Champs?

I wonder what this means for his 1500? Hopefully he can get it down to 3:30 this year...