Debate: Who will be the top American woman at the 2017 Boston Marathon - Jordan Hasay or Desi Linden?

I think this thread is 100% click bait.

Linden by a mile--literally. That is 5:20 to 6:00 ahead of Hasay.

I've long (like when Hasay was early on in college) thought that Hasay be good on the roads and at longer distances. But two caveats here: Debut, and debut at Boston which by all accounts can be a tricky course even for an experienced marathoner. All out effort with the sub 1:08 just a couple weeks ago.

One more--more of an unknown but I bet Linden's effort was just a paced run. It's too close to her marathon pace to be otherwise.

rojo knows all this and probably agrees, but is just stirring stuff up to get a big thread going.

I'll go with Hasay for sure. Seems like everyone's pretty much in agreement that Hasay has a higher ceiling, and given they're both fit I struggle to see why that alone wouldn't give Jordan the edge. If Jon's going to suggest the idea that "Desi won't bomb because she's consistent" I feel you have to extend the same confidence to Hasay as she doesn't really blow up on off days either. And yes, it is Hasay's debut but given the success of other American elite debuts (Flanagan + Huddle 2:28, Goucher 2:25 all for top 3 finishes) I don't feel like that's much of an issue either. Just my 2cents though, they're both phenomenal runners and either way its good to have the USA well represented in Boston

I believe Mary Cain will once again dominate the women's field in Boston.

Cain rules Beantown!!

I think Jordan runs the perfect race - 2:21:xx

at track wrote:

I'll go with Hasay for sure. Seems like everyone's pretty much in agreement that Hasay has a higher ceiling, and given they're both fit I struggle to see why that alone wouldn't give Jordan the edge. If Jon's going to suggest the idea that "Desi won't bomb because she's consistent" I feel you have to extend the same confidence to Hasay as she doesn't really blow up on off days either. And yes, it is Hasay's debut but given the success of other American elite debuts (Flanagan + Huddle 2:28, Goucher 2:25 all for top 3 finishes) I don't feel like that's much of an issue either. Just my 2cents though, they're both phenomenal runners and either way its good to have the USA well represented in Boston

is there really any similarity whatsoever between what Flanagan, Huddle, and Goucher had accomplished in their careers at the point of their marathon debut vs. Hasay?

It cracks me up with The brothers Johnson act like they know the marathon.

A 28 flat 10k guy that had a rough time breaking 2:20 in the marathon. I believe he only did it once and that was because he was pacing. A total underachiever in the Marathon.

And his less talented brother.

The fact that a 28 flat guy should be flirting with 2:11 but never does. Why? Because they don't understand the event and think it is just an extension of shorter distances.

Desiree by at least 5 minutes.

Sorry Brah you don't know the event.

Desiree at least 5 min behind Jordan.

Will Jordan be using the non approved shoes that Shalane and Amy and Galen used for the OT and OG? Or does she believe in herself?

Stupid question. She runs for Alberto we know that ethics are not a factor.

You are what you surround yourself with.

If the shoes are legal at the time of the event then what does anything else matter?

Nike loves the grey area wrote:

Will Jordan be using the non approved shoes that Shalane and Amy and Galen used for the OT and OG? Or does she believe in herself?

Stupid question. She runs for Alberto we know that ethics are not a factor.

You are what you surround yourself with.

Legal is not the question, but your response answers my question. Once I know where you stand on the issue it tells me all I need to know about you as a person and whether or not further discussion would be worthwhile.

I think Hasay will be humbled by Boston and the marathon distance. I think Desi will be humbled by the talent of those racing against her this year. They both sound cocky.

I think Hasay's cockiness will hurt her more, so I think Desi wins between the two. Neither of them sniff the overall victory.

This discounts most of what Rojo argued for me. Can't compared Linden's half time to full. Her PBs are like 70/2:22...that's not normal differences. So if you want to argue about who gets stronger over longer distances...

Also this:

And indication from one of the Hanson brothers that it was a "MP" run at NYC, not a true race effort like Hasay's 67...

She ran 129 miles the week before she ran within a minute of her half PB? She's in shape.

Also, people seem to forget that between Desi's 2011 PBs and today she had a stress fracture in her femur in 2012...she's worked her way back into form since then, the opposite an indistinguishable decline over the past 5 years.

Desi over Hasay. There's a lot to learn about how to run a marathon and Desi already knows most of it.

Nike loves the grey area wrote:

Will Jordan be using the non approved shoes that Shalane and Amy and Galen used for the OT and OG? Or does she believe in herself?

Stupid question. She runs for Alberto we know that ethics are not a factor.

You are what you surround yourself with.

The shoes are the least worrisome of the 'non approved' items that are used by NOP.

BTW, "Who will have the best PR by the end of their marathoning career" may have a different answer, but I still say Desi on Monday.

middle aged hobby jogger wrote:

is there really any similarity whatsoever between what Flanagan, Huddle, and Goucher had accomplished in their careers at the point of their marathon debut vs. Hasay?

As far as road racing goes? Yeah with the exception of Huddle definitely. US 10 mile champ and 2 sub-70 half marathons is holds up very well compared to what Kara or Shalane came in with. Given, their track resumes are without a doubt stronger than Jordan's but they were also much older when they first moved up and I don't think track credentials carry as much weight in this discussion as road racing success.

Banned em wrote:

rojo knows all this and probably agrees, but is just stirring stuff up to get a big thread going.

Not true at all. I already have a $20 bet with Jon Gault. Do you want to bet as well? Email me the amount and I'll agree to it (assuming it's less than $100).

What makes me think this is I got jaded from coaching at Cornell. If you have a bunch of 9:15 athletes and Princeton has a bunch of 8:50s, guess what, you are in trouble.

The reality of this sport is if you can be more motivated, tougher, better coached and still lose to an athlete that is simply more talented. I wish that wasn't the case but it is.

The question is known reliable quantity (Linden) vs. unknown upside (Hasay).

If I were a bookmaker, I'd certainly give Linden better odds. Linden has a known ability to run in the 2:25 range on Monday. Whether Hasay can run a debut marathon in that range is still unknown.

I don't accept that you can compare times at shorter distances and translate that to marathon performance. Too many people have run good half marathons and never run comparable half marathons. I also wouldn't make a prediction based on recent warm up half marathons. You could come up with dozens of examples of good halfs followed by bad marathons or vice versa. Hasay certainly COULD be the top American woman, but at this point there's an absence of evidence to predict that.

Legal or illegal is the only question.

Nike loves the grey area wrote:

Legal is not the question, but your response answers my question. Once I know where you stand on the issue it tells me all I need to know about you as a person and whether or not further discussion would be worthwhile.

After seeing how comparatively average Huddle's debut was, I'll take Linden over Jordan.