UAA Outdoor 2017 Predictions Thread

UAAlum wrote:

nor nor wrote:

And 4x4. Getting out of bed monday morning will not be pleasant for that kid

I don't see how it makes sense for him to run that after running 800 prelims, 4x8, 1500, 800 finals. Carnegie would have to have no 400 depth or desperately need big points in the 4x4 at the end of the meet to win.

Considering they're not even entering anyone in the 4, it's fair to say they have absolutely no depth. They won't have anyone in the top 12 in any of the sprints. Embarrassing. They'd win the meet by 20 points if they were even average in those events.

Still think WashU will win.

{quote]AlumUAA wrote:

UAAlum wrote:

nor nor wrote:

And 4x4. Getting out of bed monday morning will not be pleasant for that kid

I don't see how it makes sense for him to run that after running 800 prelims, 4x8, 1500, 800 finals. Carnegie would have to have no 400 depth or desperately need big points in the 4x4 at the end of the meet to win.

Considering they're not even entering anyone in the 4, it's fair to say they have absolutely no depth. They won't have anyone in the top 12 in any of the sprints. Embarrassing. They'd win the meet by 20 points if they were even average in those events.

Still think WashU will win.[/quote]

Carnegie has the top seed in the 400 hurdles, at 54.01 and he's not listed on their 4x4 list. I don't see why he wouldn't run.

Before the meet, I had it:

WashU 184

CMU 163

Today was (points relative to expected):

100: +9 WU

110h: +2 CMU

200: +4 CMU

400: +4 WU

400mh: +8 CMU

800: +2 CMU

1500: N/A, estimated +13 WU

3000SC: +1 CMU

5000: N/A, estimated even

10000: +22 WU

4x1: N/A, estimated +7 WU

4x4: N/A, estimated +5 WU

4x8: even

HJ: N/A, estimated +13 WU

PV: +11 CMU

LJ: +9 CMU

TJ: N/A, estimated even

DT: N/A, estimated +10 CMU

HT: +1 CMU

JT: N/A, estimated +4 WU

SP: +1 CMU

Obviously in some cases the points will hold (events that are final), in others they won't.

10000 was a huge win for WU, although it was hard to estimate what was going to happen due to all of the NT seeds. CMU had big wins in PV, LJ, and may have another 400mh, if the form holds.

CMU is going to need to outperform in the 5000, TJ, and relays. If WU has a bad 1500 or if CMU can turn the estimated +2 in the 800 into more than that (they've got 4 in the final), we could be in for an interesting afternoon. HJ will also be big.

Anyway, long story short..

Through the 7 final events so far (PV, LJ, HT, SP, 3000m SC, 4x8, 10000) based on the performance list, it should have been:

CMU 79

WashU 64

Right now it's:

CMU 86

WashU 70

So despite WU's big performance in the 10k, CMU is still up +1.

Based on the seeds to the finals (100, 110h, 200, 400, 400h, 800) we expect:

WashU 42

CMU 39

(This is where CMU's sprinting totally screws them. If they had even had a single Titus or Verbofsky or Bonaddio, this meet is over. They'd win by 10+.)

Based on the remaining non-prelim events (1500, 5000, 4x1, 4x4, HJ, TJ, DT, JT), we expect:

WashU 81

CMU 51

For an estimated final of:

WashU 70+42+81 = 193 (+9 on estimate)

CMU 86+39+51 = 176 (+13 on estimate, +4 relative to WU)

Your point differential for the 100 is wrong. Wash U's second auto qualified and is thus farther up than his time dictates.

you one of dem savant types?

jesus. uaa = universal aspergers association

Dude.... it's UAAs.

Barring any protests, CMU wins 186-180.

Impressive triple crown by the Tartans. WashU, as you might guess, goes home DEVASTATED.

triple crown*

*xc was a tie.

That being said, some very impressive performances by both CMU and WashU. Norley came back very well in the 800, and CMU showed impressive depth in the 800 and 1500.

On a side note, it was nice to see Grant Murphy score out of the slow heat. I had been wondering where he had been since he had a great season a couple years ago.

Carnegie scored 23 points in the shot on the guys side while Wash U scored 0. Its safe to say thats how they snuck past Wash U.

asdfa wrote:

Carnegie scored 23 points in the shot on the guys side while Wash U scored 0. Its safe to say thats how they snuck past Wash U.

Nah, not really. That was expected to happen based on the performance list.

CMU won because of the 1500, the jumps, and because WU had their #2 guy NH the vault.

math doer wrote:

asdfa wrote:

Carnegie scored 23 points in the shot on the guys side while Wash U scored 0. Its safe to say thats how they snuck past Wash U.

Nah, not really. That was expected to happen based on the performance list.

CMU won because of the 1500, the jumps, and because WU had their #2 guy NH the vault.

What I meant by that was most of the other events were relatively balanced in terms of Wash U points vs CMU points. In the shot, CMU scored wayy more than Wash U. Obviously every point contributes to the win, but the shot was a major, unbalanced contributor.

asdfa wrote:

math doer wrote:

Nah, not really. That was expected to happen based on the performance list.

CMU won because of the 1500, the jumps, and because WU had their #2 guy NH the vault.

What I meant by that was most of the other events were relatively balanced in terms of Wash U points vs CMU points. In the shot, CMU scored wayy more than Wash U. Obviously every point contributes to the win, but the shot was a major, unbalanced contributor.

Got it. Well, we'll see what happens first: WashU recruits throwers, or CMU recruits sprinters.

Honestly with the way Case has improved in the sprints, they should merge with CMU, call it Carnegie Reserve West Mellon and win conference by 150 points.