I was asked (by you?) how I explain it. I answered the question that was asked. In this specific instance, with the historical fact patterns, I didn't find the 10K world record progression statistics particularly anomalous, raising any red flag for me. There are two kinds of observations that help form my thinking:1) There are many non-doping variables that have changed in these timeframes.2) PEDs, especially an allegedly powerful, universal, untestable drug, are a bad explanation to explain regional improvements, especially over a period of two decades, where in this case, the first non-African to break 27:00 was in 2010.Now you ask me for more of my thoughts. My thoughts regarding Sumgong's recent EPO bust is that it changes very little that we didn't know before:1) Someone, maybe her husband, believed Sumgong should take EPO. We don't know when or how much or for how long or for which races. That's bad for her, for Kenya, and for the sport.2) Or worse, what if the EPO came from a local doctor not aware of Sumgong's restrictions -- showing Sumgong was negligent/incompetent, but not intentionally willing to cheat. This would be extremely stupid on her part, given the "close call" she had with a legal steroid injection for her hip, but still not out of the realm of possibility.3) Given the chance of success in getting the training of the marathon right, and getting in the right race with the right conditions and competition and tactics, 9 minutes of improvement, even after 8 marathons in 7 years, does not raise a red flag requiring a PED-only explanation. Nor are PEDs a particularly good explanation for a 9 minute improvement in the marathon, unless it removed a psychological block that permitted a better specific training and performance.4) Statistically women's marathon times do not accurately reflect their true potential, as most elite women's races are slow and tactical, and rarely benefit from fast pace-making right from the start. Fast, time-trial type races, like Boston 2014 where Shalane Flanagan brought a group of 7 women to 20 miles, including Sumgong, are extremely rare for women.5) Although EPO has been studied for short term efforts, like 3K-5K, EPO effectiveness in the slower paced marathon has actually never been studied, for amateurs or elites, men or women. Most EPO studies are short term 6-18 week type studies, evaluating performances for 20-30 minutes. The assumption that PEDs actually can produce a 9 minute improvement is something not supported by science, nor even by any other elite athlete anecdotes. Typical "non-scientific" estimates are 3-4 minutes, but even these are poor quality estimates, with very little scientific or statistical support.
Builder wrote:
For a god's sake rekrunner that is a philosophy.
I just asked why your statistics don't show such enormous anomaly clearly in red?
If you ever practice some sport against stopwatch, it is normal to have enormous improvement in the first few years but then you reach a plateau and improvements of 5% are NOT possible anymore not to mention elite which are already tuned to the roof.
It just doesn't work that way - but you know this very well.
So can you just tell me your thoughts regarding this EPO bust?
9 minutes of improvement - reg flagged or not?