Did Sebastian Coe blood dope?

rekrunner wrote:

Hmmm. As you can see for yourself, I did say it "requires a strong aerobic ability".

Boulami can be used as evidence. The specific case of Boulami's EPO-annulled world record was not controlled, so confounding factors have not been addressed, identified, measured and/or eliminated. This would help to establish and increase the certainty of the evidence.

This kind of evidence works well in discussions over a beer in a sports bar, and I guess public forums on the internet.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

Yes, it doesn't take any aerobic ability to run a great steeple. good point.

Once you eliminate runners who set world records on EPO, there is practically no evidence that EPO works..

For Boulami running 7:53 paid alot more than running 3-5k, given what Saheen/Cherono ran for 5k I think Boulami could run a lot quicker than 13:28.

The knowledge we have for 2+ decades does not include much about elite distance runners. When you eliminate all these other non-running categories, and focus on male distance runners, you find a rather mediocre set of examples "in the field": some Spanish runners, and one Irish runner, performing at levels slightly better than pre-EPO European standards, being left far behind by Africans, and a handful of Moroccans. Or you find an aging Dutch master able to come close to his personal best 10 years earlier. Contrast that to cycling, where we have many examples of the best of the best and the best of the rest.You mention Ferrari and Fuentes -- two doping doctors known to have worked successfully with many elite cyclists, and not known to have worked successfully with many elite runners.I like the "Glasgow study" more than the cycling studies, because they actually measure running with time trials, and not just VO2max, or HcT, or cycling power, or TTE at 80% -- but that doesn't fix all the shortcomings, and has a few of its own.You said "well trained" -- that doesn't seem to be the right way to describe these subjects, especially when the level of training, or the training load, wasn't assessed.What would help? Rather than a short 6-18 week study on test subjects with random fitness, precede it with 600 weeks of competitive training by a competent coach, to first bring subjects close to their "clean" peak ability. Then we can measure if EPO brings an "unnatural" ability.These subjects are still not elite, but this brings the subjects closer to the actual case of elite athletes able to produce elite times.What else? Use all the data to build a model that shows EPO improvements, as a function of talent. Rather than compute an average for the group, show all the data, suggest a curve, or several curves, and show the correlation and measure of fit.How would I apply the measures of the Glasgow study? If 11:20 3K Scottish runners improve 45 seconds, and 9:05 3K Kenyan runners improve 25 seconds, what can I say about Brahim Boulami, who ran a 7:38 3K and the 7:53 and 7:55 3K Steeple world records, times he can run thanks to many years of training which has brought him close to his peak abillity? What are his "clean" limits, and what are his EPO limits?Regarding athletes like Gamze Bulut, it's optimistic to suggest she is a "clean" 4:18 runner. Although busted for ABP, we also haven't ruled out with any certainty that she did not take steroids. Therefore we cannot say with certainty that EPO caused a 17 second improvement.

a lot more is known about cycling because of the nature of the sport

its a team sport so information circulates among team members and they dope together

they dope during long tours and the doctors and drug pariphenalia has to be transported around and across borders etc.

rekrunner wrote:

What would help? Rather than a short 6-18 week study on test subjects with random fitness, precede it with 600 weeks of competitive training by a competent coach , to first bring subjects close to their "clean" peak ability.

Good luck with your study design. Sounds promising...

Oh well, at least we can see what you would consider sufficient evidence...

Here we go, deja vu, Cacho got a gold and silver in the Olympic 1500m he did way better than the Kenyans during this era. Cacho was hardly a Coe or Ovett in terms of talent yet he was faster than them and only a few Africans ran faster than this guy who looks more like a baker or butcher not an elite runner.

Just a "handful of Moroccans" they were all dirty, 40-50 of them. Now they only have one elite runner.

Let us look at Moses Kiptanui, he held WRs for 3000m, 3000mSC and 5000m. He ran 7:27, 7:57 and 12:54 respectively. So we can conclude from this that either Boulami is either the most efficient Hurdler of all time or when at his peak on EPO he was capable of running sub 7:30 for 3000m probably closer to 7:26, and sub 12:55 probably a similar time to his brother's 12:53. Without EPO, Boulami would barely run 8:15 for the SC maybe only 8:20.

The truth is two years of 1% gains for an initial 13:10 guy for 5000m, creates a 12:54 guy. The gains from EPO don't have to be large.

"Mediocre set of examples?" I disagree...let's talk Ramzi for a moment. He appears to have been a career doper who's luck finally ran out at Beijing when he was caught using the long glowing CERA form of EPO. Also look back at his winning performance at the 05 WC where WADA reports two very high off-scores with him during that time period (157 & 148). As a result he was target tested several times and negative on any positives. WADA knew what was going on with him, however, he was able to stay one step ahead. His undoing was when he switched to CERA and the party was over (IAAF blood-testing 2001-2012 page #4):

And as I mentioned previously, the Guardian report states he was only running 3:44's when he was 22 and didn't show much potential. His sudden improvement started when he began training with Boulami in 2004. So, a 3:44 guy at 22 yoa eventually goes on to run a 3:29 (48th all-time fastest 1500), and along the way just happens to win a few WC & Olympic gold medals, and this is a "mediocre in the field" example?

I agree...Ferrari had a passion for cycling (and an obsession with 02-vector doping). Fuentes, OTOH, may have had several elite runners in his program that we don't, or may never, know about. One elite runner, though, that was implicated in Puerto was Marta Domínguez.

Also, consider that not only is there strong anecdotal evidence that 02-vector doping works very well with elite cyclists, women distance runners and men's & women's race walkers, but in men's & women's elite XC skiing as well. There have been numerous EPO positives and evidence of blood doping (e.g., paraphernalia left behind in team's lodges 😁) in the Olympics from Salt Lake City through Sochi. If EPO is ineffective, or marginally effective at best with elite endurance athletes, any reason why elite XC skiers would be using it? 🤔

I didn't say "well trained," but quoted the researchers who characterized them as "endurance trained." I think of note here is that these are altitude natives with above average baseline Hcts & decent VO2max's for non-elites who showed a significant improvement in running performance from rEPO. And good point on what an athlete's clean limits vs EPO limits are. The problem is that some athletes are career dopers who started doping at early age, and therefore we have no idea what their potential could have been as a clean performing athlete.

Fair point - and I agree that can't be ruled out just because she didn't test positive for any androgens. However, the evidence is hematological anomalies on her ABP, so some form of 02-vector doping was primarily involved. And if steriods were also involved, then you have a "super high-responder" to the synergistic effects of both. Her 4:18.23 PB in 2011 is pedestrian and no where near the "A" standard of 4:07. And yet 13 months later she blows off 17 seconds running a 4:01.18 in the semi's, which put her in the final and the enventual silver behind her doped teammate...INSANE no matter how you look at it.

You initially said " that involved well-trained Kenyan runners & EPO".

rekrunner wrote:

You initially said " that involved well-trained Kenyan runners & EPO".

You keep playing your semantic games...

Vos wrote:

How about Rashi Ramzi?

CERA did not help his aerobic capacity?

More his technical ability than his aerobic capacity some will argue. His 1500m PR was 3 min 29 which is only 48th all time yet he trounced the opposition regularly in championship races. EPO most likely improved his technical ability so he could switch lanes in races easily and change paces while avoiding collisions with his competitors who some will say were unlikely to be using EPO themselves. Look at his 2007 1500m heat as an example where he switched lanes easily to finish in lane 8 and enter the tunnel; very few athletes have done this suggesting great technical ability achieved through EPO use.

I considered that an important source of doubt. If the athletes were initially well-trained at the start of the study, we could better separate the potential for "clean" improvements, from any unnatural EPO-induced improvements.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

You initially said " that involved well-trained Kenyan runners & EPO".

You keep playing your semantic games...

If you don't like "mediocre", let's put it another way. When you look at the great performances of elite track in the decades of the 1990's and 2000's would you call Ramzi a "game-changer" of the sport?

Passport era wrote:

"Mediocre set of examples?" I disagree...let's talk Ramzi ...

Not sure the relevance of Cacho here. Would you call him a "game-changer" of the 1990's?Gains from EPO don't have to be large, but how certain can we be that EPO can produce a 1% gain from a fully developed "clean" 13:10 5000m athlete?

MD.. wrote:

a lot more is known about cycling because of the nature of the sport

its a team sport so information circulates among team members and they dope together

they dope during long tours and the doctors and drug pariphenalia has to be transported around and across borders etc.

Cyclists also spend hours and hours at threshold.

Then go super hard up 5000 foot climbs followed by sprint finishes. ----- Day after day in the grand tours. There really is no equivalent in running for which to compare EPO or blood doping benefits to cyclist. Imagine Kipchoge and Bekele going head to head for 22 days of marathons!

I would urge you to doubt your doubts.You can continue to nit-pick every piece of evidence. However every piece of evidence that we have points in the exact same direction. If the only evidence that you are prepared to accept (and it appears that it is) is a double-blind placebo controlled trial which is preceeded by a 12 year block of training (a standard that no physiology study has ever met or is ever likely to meet) then you will continue to be correct that no study will ever eliminate your doubts.Those doubts are entirely self-imposed. EPO works on every population in which is has been studied. It works across sports. It works across genders. It works in people who are born at altitude. It works across events (even technical events). It works in people who are good enough to set national records. It works in people who are good enough to set indoor records. It works in people who are good enough to win world and Olympic championships. It works in people who have run the fastest times ever in their event.You will of course point to many confounding factors in any or all of these events. However it is clear that all of the evidence we have is that EPO works. It is up to you to provide evidence that it does not work.

rekrunner wrote:

I considered that an important source of doubt. If the athletes were initially well-trained at the start of the study, we could better separate the potential for "clean" improvements, from any unnatural EPO-induced improvements.

Mr. Obvious wrote:

You keep playing your semantic games...

thought about this wrote:

it was an amazing era

foster, bedford, mcloud, spedding, hutchings, buckner, ovett, coe, cram, elliott,

mckean, moorcroft, black, daley, throw in wendy sly - all world class. amazing!

then.... nothing

until radcliffe

if the chinese did this...

It's more likely that the young British talent of the 90's, and there was a few, had their development as well as their motivation curtailed by the EPO Africans. Then in the 2000s the idea had become firmly fixed that Africans were somehow genetically superior to Europeans. At that point you also had Premier League football and athletically gifted British teens would choose football every time. Probably the 1,000th best British footballer currently earns far more than any British athlete outside of a few including Mo Farah. Gareth Bale, the most expensive footballer in the world was a talented 800m runner as a teen. Steve Cram's uncle played for Sunderland. I wonder if Cram had been born 10 years later it would probably have been a given that he'd go into football as a teen.

As mentioned above, there were talented runners coming out of Britain in the 90's but didn't fulfil their potential. One such was Curtis Robb. Look at his potential here in the 800m 1992 Games semi-final after just turning 20 years of age.

Unfortunately after this he was running against EPO cheats and had to make the decision to devote his life to athletics and take EPO to win or finish last in finals behind drug cheats, or complete medical school and pursue a career as a doctor. He chose the latter option, probably wisely. If he had chosen athletics and the 90's competition hadn't been rocket fueled, who knows what he could have achieved. Looking at that semi-final and you have to say he was made to follow in the golden era's footsteps. If he had stayed at elite level until 32/33 he would have been still there at the 2004 Olympics, and who knows how many young Britons he would have inspired to follow him?

Another talented Brit a little younger than Robb was David Sharpe. PB of 1:43 and winner of the 1992 world cup. After that he didn't shine again, not sure if it was injury or perhaps he too decided to quit rather than compete against cheats.

I should point out that the YT video contains all 3 semi-finals and Robb's is the second.

Also, the following lists the all time British middle-distance best time up to 2006 :

http://www.gbrathletics.com/uk/mb99.htm

In the 90's there were three British runners who ran under 3:33 for 1500m (four including Peter Elliot). To put that into perspective, if Seb Coe hadn't ran 3:29 in 1986, then three 1990's Brit runners would have faster 1500m PBs than Sebastian Coe. Guys like Sharpe and Robb mentioned above clearly had similar potential too. The problem for them was that in the 90's, thanks to industrial scale EPO use, they had to contend with a legion of African runners capable of running under 3:32 every week.

So the idea that the British middle-distance conveyer belt suddenly and suspiciously stopped after Peter Elliot is completely false. The sudden dominance of African runners casts suspicions on Africa not the UK, especially as we know that around 92 or 93 EPO suddenly became available.

In the 90's the UK also had a string of world class and hugely talented 400m and 400m hurdlers. I suspect a lot of them had the talent to become world class 800m runners.

You deleted your post from this that shows the relevance of Cacho. Boulami on epo was in all likelihood possessed the same capabilities of Moses Kiptanui (let's hope he was clean). This would indicate instead of a pre-epo time of 13:28 he was boosted to c.12:55 for 5000m. A c. 4.1% gain at least.

Subway Surfers Addiction wrote:

rekrunner wrote:

you find a rather 'mediocre' set of examples "in the field": some 'Spanish runners,'

performing at levels 'slightly' better than pre-EPO European standards,

being 'left far behind by Africans,'

and 'a handful of Moroccans.'

what can I say about Brahim Boulami, who ran a 7:38 3K and the 7:53 and 7:55 3K Steeple world records, times he can run thanks to many years of training which has brought him close to his peak abillity? What are his "clean" limits, and what are his EPO limits?

.

Here we go, deja vu, Cacho got a gold and silver in the Olympic 1500m he did way better than the Kenyans during this era. Cacho was hardly a Coe or Ovett in terms of talent yet he was faster than them and only a few Africans ran faster than this guy who looks more like a baker or butcher not an elite runner.

Just a "handful of Moroccans" they were all dirty, 40-50 of them. Now they only have one elite runner.

Let us look at Moses Kiptanui, he held WRs for 3000m, 3000mSC and 5000m. He ran 7:27, 7:57 and 12:54 respectively. So we can conclude from this that either Boulami is either the most efficient Hurdler of all time or when at his peak on EPO he was capable of running sub 7:30 for 3000m probably closer to 7:26, and sub 12:55 probably a similar time to his brother's 12:53. Without EPO, Boulami would barely run 8:15 for the SC maybe only 8:20.

The truth is two years of 1% gains for an initial 13:10 guy for 5000m, creates a 12:54 guy. The gains from EPO don't have to be large.[/quote]

That looks better (I hope)

A close-ish (if there was one) equivalent is probably the Tour de Ski for cross country skiing.

BrewBrah wrote:

MD.. wrote:

a lot more is known about cycling because of the nature of the sport

its a team sport so information circulates among team members and they dope together

they dope during long tours and the doctors and drug pariphenalia has to be transported around and across borders etc.

Cyclists also spend hours and hours at threshold.

Then go super hard up 5000 foot climbs followed by sprint finishes. ----- Day after day in the grand tours. There really is no equivalent in running for which to compare EPO or blood doping benefits to cyclist. Imagine Kipchoge and Bekele going head to head for 22 days of marathons!