Running a Sub-3 First Marathon

sounds like you're more than capable of breaking 3 hours to me

Certainly a reasonable goal. Both your 10k and your half marathon suggest you are capable of times in the 2:50-2:52 range.

Of course, those kind of calculations assume that you are equally prepared for all races. Sounds like your long runs have been a little bit lacking, and your overall volume a little lower than idea, and you weigh more than would be ideal to have to carry over 26.2. So all of those are strikes against times in the very low 2:50s.

But the fact that you are using longer races to try to determine your marathon pace offsets some of those concerns.

So while I might say going 2:50 pace would be a tad aggressive, going through the half and 1:27-1:28 doesn't seem unreasonable at all (assuming a course that is equally hard on both the front and back halves).

Yeah you've got the goods to break 3 pretty easily, but the marathon is a different animal than the half.

As long as you are mindful of nutrition/fluids and you don't go out too fast, you should do it.

Also, in the marathon the weather conditions play a bigger role than in any other race you'll run. If you are unlucky enough to get back weather, that can play a huuuge factor, but otherwise I think you are good to go.

Good luck, race smart.

Your goal is conservative, which is a good thing for a first marathon. Your half and 10K are probably worth 2:50-2:52 with experience and proper training.

Note that the marathon is considered relatively fast, yet it has some difficulties if you don't pace it properly: the downhill first kilometre on the Champs Élysées can you make go out too fast, the second half has a few small hurdles: a few short, steep ups and downs when going along the Seine, then a modest climb to the Bois de Boulogne close to the 35K mark.

The times you are running in your buildup sound similar what I was doing before my first marathon. I think I ran 36:30-something in the 10k the summer before breaking 3 in a fall marathon. I certainly think you can do it with those times, just make sure you don't run too hard from the gun because 6:40's can feel ridiculously slow when you are rested and excited. Resist the urge to run the first ten miles at 6:20-pace. I did it that and while I still broke 3, it wasn't pleasant. The last 6 miles felt like a death march.

Besides that, just make sure not to mess up any of the little things that can derail a marathon. Have a plan to fuel and hydrate and practice it ahead of time on long runs. Don't wear shoes, socks or clothing that you haven't tried out ahead of time on a long run. Experiment with vaseline on places you worry about chafing or blisters.

Echoing what the others have said. I ran 2:50:40 on very similar PR's to you but with less training volume - 30-45 MPW. I was only running sessions, tempos and a long run that topped out at 17 a few times.

I basically no idea what I was doing. Ran through half in 1:21:30 and crashed to 2:50. If you're not an idiot you'll cruise under 3.

You should be able to do it. I would suggest doing a 1 or 2 long runs of 16 miles but do 14 or 15 of the miles at 6:50 pace. This will let you know if your body can handle a longer distance at the pace you plan on running. It will also help you 'lock into' that pace and help you not go out too fast (which is the one thing that will keep you from sub 3).

I think it is possible, if you run smart. I ran Paris as my second marathon ever, for a massive PR in 2:52. I had PRs and training fairly close to yours. Hopefully you don't have too much wind on race day, as it can be bad some years. The course is pretty good, but like someone else mentioned, it isn't as easy as some thing it is. Good luck!

I did a 1:21 HM last March, and after some decent training (50MPW) did 3:01 at a fall marathon. Started at a 3:00 flat pace, but lost some seconds in the last few miles. Did not put enough seconds in the bank in the first 20 miles. Racing smart is not that easy, start conservatively and on pace, but not overly so!

One key workout is to do long/steady marathon pace runs (10-12 miles), you should incorporate those in your training.

Thank you for this. The responses have given me good confidence and I hope I can come up with the goods on the day. Where did you store your gels on your first race? I have quite large quads so I need the split leg shorts but not many of them have pockets etc.

Thank you again.

John

Seems possible but maybe not likely. I had similar running credentials and ran about 3:03 my first marathon. But you might be more endurance oriented than me, but your large frame doesn't help (as it didn't help me).

Thank you very much, all. Any further suggestions, tips or advice would be gratefully received.

one tip would be to not have 2 separate threads on the subject

Dear all,

Many thanks for all your help, guidance and advice.

I ran 2:55:41

http://www.schneiderelectricparismarathon.com/en/event/results/results-marathon

and my last two km were my quickest by far. Feel like I left a bit much in the tank but I'm still delighted with the time.

I didn't feel uncomfortable at any stage and my 5km splits were almost all the same.

Thanks again!

John

Congrats!

Good job, congrats! And thanks for reporting back on how it went.

Thank you very much - I really appreciated all the help. I've been very surprised that my legs haven't been stiff or sore etc. I'm now thinking that I should have pushed harder. It seems the McMillan Calculator was pretty accurate.